George001

I remember the winter of 2012-2013 and 2013-14 were both cold neutrals, I would gladly take a repeat of either of those.

In recent weeks, the chances that we will have a favorable enso state for New England snow has increased significantly, with the newest guidance, especially the dynamical models shifting from an enso neutral (roughly 0 to -.3 degrees celsius) forecast) to a high end weak la nina (-.8 to -.9 degrees celsius). In my opinion, the shift from a cold neutral to a borderline weak/moderate strength Nina increases the ceiling of the upcoming winter with more northern stream interaction vs a cold neutral, creating more chances for severe Miller b blizzards.

It is too warm for a a 2010-2011 super nina type winter, but the subsurface has cooled quite a bit over the past few weeks. Just over a month ago there was talk of a possible weak or even moderate El Niño, but since then the subsurface, hurricane activity, and model guidance have been indicating La Niña. When combined with the tendency for moderate and strong ninas to have a double dip, I wouldn’t rule out a high end moderate or low end strong Nina yet. It is unlikely, but is still within the realm of possibilities. I’m leaning towards a 2017-2018 type of La Niña, both similar in strength and late blooming nature. The biggest red flag that the La Niña could be stronger than expected for me is the strength of the La Niña last year. Last year was a moderate La Niña, but it was a high end moderate/borderline strong Nina. That is the strongest La Niña we have had since the super Nina of 2010-2011. The stronger the first year Nina, the stronger the signal is for a double dip, and it also increases the ceiling of the Nina (usually ends up slightly weaker than the first).

Latest nnme enso forecast for the 2021-2022 winter

The most recent guidance has shifted from a cold neutral mean to a high end weak/borderline moderate Nina mean. This will likely have a significant impact on winter forecasts, as model enso forecasts become much more accurate by summer.

I haven’t heard of the declining arctic sea ice causing high latitude blocking, if anything I would think low arctic sea ice is an indicator that favors a more mild winter in New England due to a weaker cold air source. The Siberian snow cover thing I do believe has a lot of truth to it, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. In that 2018 winter we did have a brutal stretch of winter, it wasn’t a garbage winter by any means. It was a 2 week stretch that was really mild, but ended up being a snowier than average winter in the east. Someone who is more knowledgeable about this stuff would be able to explain it better in detail, but based on what I understand is the Hadley cell expansion increases the strength of the pacific jet overall, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get cold stretches, just means the mild stretches will outweigh the cold ones, and over time winters in New England will get less snowy on average. The extreme cold during that same winter occurred during a severe polar vortex intrusion into the United States, which is something that can dominate the pattern. You are right though that a lot of times people oversimplify the atmosphere. During the winter of 2019-2020 I got really excited when I heard there would be a polar vortex split because I assumed that meant New England would get hit by a barrage of severe blizzards, but then I learned what happens when the polar vortex splits to either the west coast instead of the east coast or even the other side of the globe entirely. That is when I learned that polar vortex split doesn’t necessarily mean good for snow, and can even mean the opposite. A lot of indicators that are oversimplified like that. They are still useful when used correctly though.

Recently, it has. Some areas reached 80 in feb 2018, Jan 2020, and 70s in Feb 2017. Historically, 80s in New England usually would wait until late April or even well into May, but the Hadley Cell got bigger, and our climate got warmer, and the rate that temps are increasing is accelerating.

I’m not super knowledgeable about this stuff, the Meteorologists here would be able to explain in more detail than I can. Based on what I have read though, the Hadley cell sits on both sides of the equator, up to 30N and 30S latitude, and due to climate change, the size of the Hadley cell is increasing. Right now they are predicting that the Hadley cell will expand 2 degrees of latitude on both sides, however historical climate change predictions have underestimated the increasing acceleration of the warming. Due to this it is very possible if not likely that the Hadley cell expands even more than that. If the acceleration in global warming doesn’t stop, in my opinion the Hadley cell will expand enough to engulf the whole planet. This is unlikely to happen in our lifetimes, but still a very real concern that cannot be ignored, as we don’t want to screw over future generations and humanity as a whole. In my opinion the Hadley cell expansion is responsible for the pacific jet blasting the country with mild air, leading to areas as far north as central New England seeing 70+ degree and even 80s in mid winter. 70s and 80s in mid winter was unheard of until a decade or so ago, and it seems like we get a stretch like that at least every other year now. Climate change induced Hadley cell expansion is the most likely culprit for this. If anything I said here is inaccurate, those who are more knowledgeable about this stuff feel free to correct me.

The winter of 2018-2019 if anything acted like a super nino, wasn’t that the winter that the pacific jet went ballistic and flooded the country with mild air? The polar vortex didn’t help much but it did come down into the states at times (a bit west of ideal like this most recent winter, but it wasn’t parked over the North Pole like 2011-2012 and 2019-2020). 2018-2019 was forecasted to be an epic winter by many with multiple severe blizzards clobbering New England (understandably, since in November all the seasonal indicators looked really good), but the stronger than expected pacific jet meant we were just too warm, and meant the flow was just too fast so the northern and southern branches mostly stayed separate. Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the reason weak ninos are usually so good for New England snow that you get just enough pac jet influence to energize the southern branch enough to increase the ceiling on storms we get, but not quite enough to flood the country with mild air? When you combine an active southern branch with a cooperative polar vortex you get several massive blizzards slamming into New England, producing a widespread 2ft+ of snow with hurricane force winds, like in 2014-2015. Idk if I’m off base here, but for some reason that 2018-2019 winter felt like we were always really close but the lows just kept tracking a bit too far west or we were just a couple degrees too warm to get a big snowstorm, a lot of missed opportunities. Other garbage winters like 2011-2012 and 2019-2020 it felt like we never stood a chance. Honestly, the 2018-2019 pattern wasn’t even terrible even with the raging pacific jet. I feel like that type of pattern with just a slightly more favorable polar vortex as well as a slightly weaker pac jet and we could have had a big winter.

This is especially true for stronger ninas. I know going by oni it was considered to be “only” a low end strong Nina, but going my MEI which in my opinion is a better indicator of enso strength, the 2010-2011 winter had the strongest nina on record, the inverse of the 2015-2016 nino). The following winter was a moderate Nina, similar to the strength of last years Nina (maybe a bit weaker). After the strong Nina of 2007-2008, a weak Nina followed. The correlation is not as strong with weak ninas, but after every moderate or stronger Nina on that graph, another Nina followed the next winter. Right now the models are showing a weak Nina next year, but based on last years Enso, the trend from previous months, the spread of the model Enso data (wide range of outcomes, but most of the outliers are to the nina side), and the recent subsurface data, there is potential for the strength of the la nina to drastically increase. Just a couple of months ago, the subsurface was indicating that we could be headed into a moderate el nino, but the subsurface has significantly weakened since then, indicating that the transition to la nina is already starting. Right now I would rule out an El Niño of any strength based on what I’m seeing from the latest data and would lean towards a high end weak nina, and wouldnt yet rule out a moderate, or even low end strong nina.

A weak west based nino is ideal, but if all the models were showing that right now the risk would be that the nino strengthens more than expected and the warmer waters move east. Last year all the models were showing a weak Nina at this time, and it ended up being a high end moderate/ borderline strong Nina. Im glad the models are showing a borderline weak Nina/cold neutral right now. Weak Nina is the 2nd best Enso state+strength combination there is. With a Nina you are less likely to get a historic blizzard with 3 feet plus in all of New England (due to less southern stream), but you will have more shots at snow with an active northern stream. If the polar vortex cooperates and you can get the northern branch to dig, go negatively tilted, allowing it to tap and throw Atlantic moisture back into New England, watch out. That is a weather pattern that can and does produce multiple severe blizzards in one year, like 18+ inches with isolated 2 feet. That’s how you get 2010-2011, 1995-1996, and March 2018. Yeah the ceiling isn’t quite as high for individual storms, but you can still get a 2 ft severe blizzard with a northern stream driven Miller b in New England.

Good, 5 months ago the way the subsurface looked it appeared like the early signs were indicating we could go mod-strong nino, which means congrats mid atlantic. It appears now the models are leaning towards a weak Nina, which is much better for winter prospects in New England than a moderate or stronger Nino.

Due to the unusual climate change induced jet stream configuration currently in place, everywhere from Seattle to Canada to eastern mass is seeing temps soar to the triple digits. In my opinion, the extreme warmth off the northwest pacific is the culprit here. This warm pool allowed the pacific jet to strengthen to levels never seen before, flooding the entire country with hot pacific air. The heat wave we just had? This is only the beginning, according to the models there are signs that warm air is going to start rebuilding by the 2nd week of July. Since this current have happened in June, the next one will be deeper into the summer, and the pacific jet is forecasted to be even stronger. I doubt today will be the last time Boston breaks 100 this year, in my opinion temps will soar to 105-110 in the Boston area during the July 13-23rd timeframe, and it will be climate change induced. Many areas in Washington and Oregon broke all time record temps by 8-10 degrees and it isn’t even mid summer yet. This suggests that the rate of acceleration of global warming has drastically increased. I hate heat, and hope that we don’t see 100 again any time soon, but unfortunately that’s what the long range guidance is telling me right now. I strongly believe that this anomalous weather pattern we are currently in will set the stage for a winter that will smash records. Whether it’s record warmth, snow, cold, or lack of snow, I’m not sure yet. Right now I am leaning mild, due to what we are seeing so far this summer from the jet stream, but things can change very quickly.

My original idea back in March of a record strong Nina the next winter might end up right after all the way the models are trending.

Off topic but man I just heard about James today, man that’s awful, he was too young. I’m new to posting on this board but I have been lurking on weather boards for years and his posts really stood out to me. His unwavering passion for weather despite getting skunked year after year on the Cape was a beautiful thing. I really wish I could have met him in person, whenever I would hear him hyping up a massive blizzard on the models it made my day. Reading James posts is what lead me to discovering my own passion for weather, and his posts are what inspired me to make an account. I know due to my extreme weeniesm and at times bordering on delusional forecasts lead many to crown me as the biggest weenie on the board, but I refuse to accept that title. James always has and always will be the biggest weenie on this board. RIP James, the man who helped me and many others discover our passions for the weather. Tracking winter storms won’t be the same without him, and next time I’m hyping up a massive blizzard I will always be thinking of him.

I hope you are right about the not having to worry about a nino next year

I have mostly been fishing largemouth recently but want to try going for stripers. I don’t have a boat so I would be fishing off the bank. I live in interior sema around the Foxborough area, what areas would you guys recommend I try for striper fishing?

Summer 2021 update: as spring ends and summer begins, we are beginning to see more clarity in regards to the enso state for the winter of 2021-2022. It is still early and this could still change (last year at this time appeared to be an enso neutral winter coming up, when in reality we ended up with a high end moderate/borderline strong Nina), but right now the models are predicting an cold neutral/borderline weak Nina for the winter of 2021-2022, with the range being from roughly warm neutral to a low end moderate Nina. The recent observations show that the subsurface warmth is weakening, which indicates that we could be approaching the peak in the Enso region over the next month or two before temps decrease again in that region. Therefore, at this time for my forecast I am leaning towards a weak La Niña (-.5 to -.8 strength), which is on the lower end of the temp range in the Enso region on the models. Unfortunately, the Pacific Ocean temps in the area just off the west coast still remain well above average, and so do the ssts off the Atlantic Ocean. These factors(especially the warm ssts off the Atlantic) skunked several of our chances at getting severe blizzards in eastern mass, as the warm ocean air warmed us up just enough to change the precip over to rain while north and west areas get hammered with a severe blizzard. The warmth in the pacific led to the pacific jet going haywire, flooding the country with mild pacific air and leading to us getting skunked in January. Due to the unfavorable SSTs (that look similar to the last few winters) combined with a favorable enso state, the early signs point to an avg to slightly below avg winter in the area (conflicting signals), but this should be taken with a grain of salt since it’s still early and the signs for how the single most important factor (the polar vortex) in our winter weather will behave are several months away from revealing themselves (October-November). In 2014-2015, the sst profile looked awful heading into the winter and did skunk the 1st half of winter, but then we had a polar vortex displacement where the polar vortex was displaced in the perfect spot and just sat there, leading to extreme cold in the eastern half of the US, and when combined with the weak nino induced subtropical jet, resulted in extreme cyclogenesis. This led to multiple severe blizzards coming up the coast, brining feet of snow to eastern mass every week from late Jan to late Feb. This polar vortex event that led to us going from a ratter to the snowiest winter on record in a month in 2015 is not something that will show its hand until a couple of weeks before it happens.

The gfs has trended even colder with the low and now supports a severe nor’easter with heavy snow in eastern mass. They should just retire the gfs, it’s a garbage model that is almost always wrong. I’m not buying that it will even snow one flake even in the mountains and northern New England, never mind where I live.

Yeah but for massive nor’easters (sub 980mb) isn’t there usually a band of heavy precip that backs in farther west than the surface maps say? The dynamics look quite extreme to me on that run, which to me signals that there will be banding farther west. When combining that with the location of the 540 line is what led me to the conclusion that this run supports severe blizzard conditions in the Berkshires. That said, I believe the run is wrong and am not forecasting that.

Normally when I see a low that strong on the models my first instinct is to forecast a massive blizzard, but it’s the gfs so it’s probably wrong and also it’s May. Based on the upper levels (for r/s line I use the 540 line) this run would support severe blizzard conditions in the berkshires and maybe even some snow into Worcester, with rain se of there. Of course its not going to happen because it’s the GFS and it’s May, but the fact that the run even supports blizzard conditions in May says everything you need to know about this model, which is that it is absolute garbage. Too bad we couldn’t get this in March. Fortunately the early signals (severe volcanic activity, and weak enso signal) are supportive for a severe winter next year, let’s hope that they hold.

I caught a 12 inch and 16 inch largemouth bass last week using shiners

What happened to the 80s this week? Just a couple days ago my weather app had temps in the low 80s Wednesday now it’s saying low 70s. Still well above avg this time of year but not record warmth like I thought we would get.

I agree with him on that. Latest enso forecast has the enso moving up to neutral before La Niña re emerges and peaks at roughly -.9 to -1.1 degrees Celsius (borderline weak/mod Nina). I have also read that there was severe volcanic activity last year, which often will have a lag effect where 2+ years out it will lead to extreme winter weather with severe cold and blizzard conditions. In 1816, the year without a summer it supposedly snowed in June in SNE, which is almost unheard of. Due to climate change, it is highly unlikely we will every see anything like that again, but it is very possible that due to the extreme volcanic activity last year the massive amounts of volcanic gases released into the atmosphere acting as a shield against solar radiation, allowing for cooler temps with an extended winter season and several severe blizzards. This extreme volcanic activity+ favorable Enso state has me leaning big as well, but things can change.

It appears the latest long range models support the nina ending in a month or two, transitioning to enso neutral and peaking at 0 degrees Celsius before dipping down again into another Nina (borderline of weak/moderate strength) for winter 2022. It’s still early spring so the models will continue to struggle with the Enso forecast, but we should know more by July or August. I’m rooting for this to be right, ninas of borderline weak/moderate strength tend to be great in eastern Mass, 1995-1996 and 2017-2018 were roughly that strength (96 a bit stronger, 18 a bit weaker). Ninas get an undeserved bad reputation from eastern mass snow weenies imo, yeah it means there will be more SE ridge but that isn’t necessarily bad, as it makes it less likely storms will miss to the south. The risk is more ptype issues, and I would rather deal with ptype issues than missing storms altogether to the south. It’s strange how eastern mass snow weenies panic and call for ratters when they see a big Nina going into the winter (like before this winter), yet we have roughly the same avg snow in strong ninas and enso neutral winters, and you don’t see all this panic about ratters when it’s enso neutral. The only enso states that have a strong signal for below avg snow are moderate nino and strong nino. Ninas are also better for snowpack retention, stretches of sustained cold, and frequent tracking for a bunch of moderate systems at the expense of a lesser shot at a huge one (due to less active southern jet).