George001

I hope he’s wrong, moderate nino favors below avg snow here, above avg snow DC. Nino is only good if it’s weak (like 2015).

Based on what I have seen in my own backyard over the past 10 years, the higher end climate change projections could very much be underestimating the speed of climate change. I’m not the most knowledgeable about meteorology but looking at the data of our monthly temps with respect to average over the past 10 years something seems off. We have had 6 straight winters with above average temps, with temps soaring into the high 70s as early as mid to late feb multiple times in the past couple of years (this year it waited until early-mid March). I have never seen anything like it until a few years ago, yet since I first saw it a few years ago it seems that we have been getting a stretch of mid-high 70s every winter. To me that is a red flag that indicates that climate change is not only happening, but accelerating rapidly. Hopefully as a society we decide to look at climate change at something that is imminent and one of the greatest threats to mankind, not something to put on the backburner in favor of other issues.

Yeah winters as we know them to be are going to be a thing of the past eventually so I plan on making the best of the winters we have left, by enjoying and tracking every last blizzard until that happens.

I have a couple of questions for those who are more knowledgeable about enso stuff than I am. Historically what have the following Summers, falls and winters looked like in terms of Enso with rapid development of warmth in the subsurface developing in the spring after a mod/strong La Niña winter? Also how significant is this, It seems like it is at least somewhat significant but I’m not really sure what strength El Niño it is signaling could surface in the future.

Over the past couple of weeks the subsurface temps several hundred meters below the surface of the enso region have drastically increased. The subsurface temps have risen from -1 degrees Celsius in mid Feb to .5 degrees celsius now. The Nina is still there at the surface, but it appears that the warmth is both rising and moving east to engulf not only region 4 but 3.4 and 3 as well. There is a lag period due to the time it takes for the warmth to surface, but it appears that it will surface and could potentially lead to the development of El Niño conditions by summer.

I thought for sure we would get 3 blizzards, but there were a couple of major flaws in my analysis of the models. I overestimated how good the pattern was and underestimated the influence of climo. I’m convinced my epic feb forecast wasn’t terrible as we did have below normal temps and above normal snow for the month, but good ol bad luck screwed us. As a snow weenie I would take the pattern we got in feb and gladly run it back every year, as I strongly believe that 9/10 times that pattern delivers 30-40+ inches of snow in the Boston area in Feb alone. Where I live we got close to that in Feb, and I’m only like 45 min away from Boston. Now my March forecast was as horrible as it gets, the pattern that took hold was the opposite of what I expected (though the first week we had one good opportunity, just got unlucky with the PV being in the worst possible spot to squash the low despite the flow not being fast, a strong northern steam, and strong southern stream. Just didn’t work out). I expected March to end up being a Feb 2015 redux, and it was a March 2012 redux so that’s as bad of a forecast as it gets.

Uh there has been a delay due to supply issues, however if you decide to stick with the plan your warranty will be extended another 5 years and you will have special access to the in house george001 model that runs twice a day and uses its own algorithm to make forecasts, so you will have top notch extended forecasts to prepare for next years record breaking winter. When we get several 2 week long -100 millibar strength blizzards with snow piled up higher than you are tall, hurricane force winds, and storm induced tsunamis with waves coming in as far as Worcester, you will know 3-4 weeks in advance!

At this point the winter of 2021 is long gone, it was looking like a near lock for 60-70+ totals in the Boston area then, but due to a combination of bad luck and a worse than expected pattern for late Feb to March, winter ended early which resulted in what looked to be a promising winter turning into a avg-slightly below avg one. However I still stand by my take that we were extremely unlucky and with the type of pattern we were in 9/10 times we get a 50-60+ inch winter in the Boston area. Unfortunately it appears that things right now are trending in the wrong direction for next winter with the rapid warming of the subsurface indicating that the La Niña will likely continue to weaken, and turn into an El Niño for the summer. Now this doesn’t necessarily mean we will get a ratter (if we do get a nino and it stays weak that’s actually a good thing), but with how rapid the subsurface warming combined with the historical trend of the winters following mod/strong enso ninas also being mid/strong ensos (sometimes 2nd year Nina, sometimes nino), that is a signal for a stronger event. It’s still VERY early, but its something that I’m keeping an eye on before I make my winter 2022 forecast in November. If this does become an El Niño, the key will be how strong does it get, which isn’t something that is clear right now. If it’s weak, anything from a big winter to ratter is on the table with it being a signal to lean above avg (of course other factors need to be taken into account as well). If the nino is moderate+ however, in my opinion that is a strong signal for below average snow in the southern New England region and will be weighted more heavily in my forecast as strong Enso events tend to dominate the pattern for at least part of the winter.

The storm is going to develop a little later, but snow maps are horrible and almost always wrong. Upper levels and temp profiles are more important, and the euro had the right idea. I thought we might get an Eastern mass blizzard if the low trended farther south, but that didn’t happen and it looks to stay north. Still a big storm though, You Phineas Powderfreak and Dendy are probably getting 1-2 feet of snow from this. Down where I live it’s a big ol rainstorm. The euro had CNE/NNE as the jackpot which is better than the garbage gfs that didn’t even transfer the low.

the models aren’t showing it right now, but early April needs to be watched for a possible early spring noreaster. The 500 millibar pattern on the european guidance is a bit too progressive right now for a storm, but it has been trending less progressive with more digging of the trough. Looks like NNE after getting skunked most of winter is going to get hammered in early spring, with a foot and possibly more for Phineas Dryslot and Dendy for the 28th storm, then another threat for April 2nd. It also looks like the european guidance is gearing up for yet another early spring snow threat towards the 7-10th timeframe. Climo is extremely unfavorable at this point however there is blocking and a displaced polar vortex in central Canada with ridging out west. Especially for interior CNE/NNE these threats need to be watched, SNE is a long shot due to climo at this point but even here I’m keeping an eye out. The setup looks similar to the 28th so I am leaning more CNE/NNE right now, as it would have to dig a lot more for SNE to be in the game.

The gfs should be tossed because it’s the worst model, is an outlier, and the pattern supports a transfer of the low (Miller B).

Blizzard.

I know I said it was unlikely a couple of days ago but the models have changed since then. The chances of a massive ocean low have increased quite a bit. We have seen the changes we needed to see in the Atlantic, instead of a consolidated polar vortex over the pole we have a piece diving into the central us, phasing with the southern stream. We also have a small lobe east of Nova Scotia, which creates a mechanism to prevent the storm from escaping, leading to a slow mover. Imo the euro solution that gives NNE 2 feet is very possible and cannot be dismissed. Hell even down in se mass I’m watching it. This is going to be a big one, and the models have the track only 50 miles too late for us in southeast mass. If we can get that lobe east of Nova Scotia to back in to the south and west a bit, it will force the low to transfer farther south and undergo earlier cyclogenesis. If this happens, the storm would stall over nantucket instead of the gulf of Maine, which would bring those 2ft+ totals into all of eastern mass including the cape. Yes it will start as rain, but due to the rapid cyclogenesis the low will create its own cold air and will dynamically cool the atmosphere which will not only change the rain to snow, but it will increase the ratios as well. Since the low is going to stall, a slow moving blizzard is very possible if not likely and the areas to the north and west of the low where it stalls will easily get over 2 feet, possibly 3-4 feet (likely in the mountains). Honestly even James and Anthony are in the game, they need a lot more to go right but the pattern currently modeled suggests there is room for the low to transfer farther south.

It appears that we got the changes we needed on the Atlantic overnight on the models, not only have they shifted to a favorable pattern but there are 2 threats, the 28th and 31st. The setup for the first threat is more marginal, but it appears that the polar vortex is displaced to the south for the second one which increases the chances for a favorable northern stream injection that phases and delivers the cold air. It also appears that there is another Miller B threat in early April when you extrapolate the most recent Canadian run. We will be fighting climo and ptype issues with any storm we get, but I am a lot more optimistic than I was yesterday due to the drastic changes we needed in the Atlantic materializing on the overnight runs.

Holy shit euro is a blizzard for next weeks storm. 1003 millibars in NE Virginia to 978 millibars right over Nantucket in just 24 hours. I can’t see the snow map or precip on tropical tidbits but looking at the upper level temps, and 500 millibar setup it screams blizzard. Thats a rain to blizzard April 1st 1997 setup on the Euro.

Over the past month the La Niña has weakened significantly and is barely even a weak La Niña now. The latest model guidance indicates it will go up to around neutral and then go back down again, possibly into another La Niña next fall and winter. A month ago they were saying strong Nina but a lot has changed since then and the updated data is saying cold neutral/borderline weak Nina. With the spring predictability barrier unless it’s an extreme event (record strong nino 2016 and record strong Nina 2011), it seems that the models tend to be all over the place which they are. The range is borderline strong nino to record strong La Niña, with most being roughly -.4 to -.6 degrees Celsius. For the outliers, 4 have moderate+ strength ninas and one has a strong nino. Based on the recent data Despite the shift towards a weaker enso event a big Nina cannot be ruled out yet. Models aside, it’s quite common for the following winter after a strong Nina to be another moderate-strong Nina. This combined with the model data would make me lean towards a second Nina but I can’t really say much about the strength yet. Being a New England snow weenie though, the only enso states with a solidly below avg snowfall signal are moderate and strong ninos, with weak ninos up to record strong ninas signaling at least average near average snowfall.

The flow is somewhat amplified during the late March storm threat, with a piece of the northern branch phasing with the southern branch to create a massive ocean low. However the setup does not look conductive for snow outside the mountains, and even there it may be too warm. The issue is the polar vortex is over Greenland and there is no cold air to be found, so in my opinion the chance of an all snow storm without ptype issues is next to none. The only way we are getting snow is if the low amplifies to a historic strength and creates its own cold air to dynamically cool the column. If this happens, it would lead to a rain to historic blizzard scenario like April 1 1997. This is extremely unlikely, as with this type of pattern there is 0 room for error. I really like the look of the pacific, but I hate the look in the Atlantic right now on the models. Based on my analysis I would say there is a 999/1000 chance that we get less than an inch of snow from this storm and a 1/1000 chance we get more than that (this is a very boom or bust setup, if everything did go right and somehow we got a 960 millibar fully phased low stalling over Nantucket, we would see feet. This is EXTREMELY unlikely and I am not calling for this). We will need major changes in the Atlantic (such as the polar vortex displaced 500 miles south of where the models currently have it) for this storm threat to even have a chance at being wintry. My current call is we do get a decent sized storm, but it’s all rain.

Denver stole them

This winter wasn’t anything special but it was way more exciting than the horrible 18-19 winter. This winter was average, 18-19 was well below with only 2 6+ storms and 1 12+ storm. That’s a ratter in my book. This winter at least in my area there were 2 12+ Storms, 3/4 6+ storms (I’m not entirely sure the October and Jan one were borderline, but The one in dec and 2 in feb were definitely 6+, with the last storm being borderline) in my area. Unlike that horrific winter this winter at least had a few smaller events on top of the couple of bigger ones (as is typical in moderate/strong la ninas) vs 2019 one bigger storm and one moderate one separated by 4 months, with not much in between. I would take this average winter again over that ratter winter and it’s not even close. We also had a much more favorable pattern this winter and if anything we underperformed the pattern with average snowfall. In my opinion 9/10 times this pattern would produce well above average snow in all of eastern mass. The 2019 pattern we never stood a chance with the storm track way to the west the whole year.

That’s gfs guidance. I don’t use the gfs at all when making my forecasts, often I won’t even look at it. I prefer a 80/20 European Canadian blend in the long range (still too far out for the Navy, that’s more of a mid range model). The European and Canadian guidance have the polar vortex parked over the North Pole. Even that if that gfs run was right the polar vortex is still parked over the North Pole in that image. When I see a polar vortex parked over the North Pole I will always go with the warmer guidance and even that might be underdone, as the pattern favors warmth. 70s would not be surprising at all, I would say based on the blend of models I look it we are likely going to see a solid week+ of 60s with a couple of days soaring well into the 70s. When there is a atmospheric driver in place like a polar vortex over the North Pole that tends to dominate the pattern, an ensemble mean will smooth that out in the long range and as we approach the target time period will likely correct warmer.

Eh the model guidance has the polar vortex over the North Pole with above average temps during that time frame. If anything that favors 70s like we had earlier in the month.

It seems like at least until a few years ago we typically would get at least one at least every other year. In our best years we get 3 or 4 big ones (2011, 2015, ect). We have had one big one in the past 5 years (March 2018) and along with that we have had 5 consecutive winters with above average temps. 70s in winter used to be very rare but it seems we have a 70 or two in mid winter all the time now. That seems more like climate change than regression to the mean. It makes sense, the warmer the temps get the more difficult it is to get big snows.

A lot of this Hadley cell stuff is over my head right now (I plan on doing some reading to learn more about it) but I agree with the general idea that climate change is having a big impact on our winters. I have noticed that it seems harder to get a big slow moving east coast blizzard in recent years than it used to, fast flows have been dominating and storms just don’t seem to want to phase. I don’t really buy the whole “regression to the mean” thing when it comes to our recent winters, I see it as more of a combination of lag effect from the super nino in 2016 and climate change moving us to a less favorable base state.

Yeah October snow doesn’t really mean anything about the following winter. With March being a bust it will end up right around average where I live. Not really anything special but not a garbage winter like the last 2 either.

I left the door open for maybe a 5% chance at a monster ocean low if the storm fully phased but yeah without a phase we weren’t getting those warning amounts. The snow maps are garbage, the setup was always marginal and even if we got a late partial phase even the more aggressive models didn’t favor anything more than 2-4/3-6 (those 6+ amounts were bullshit due to marginal temps holding down ratios). Even I had (relatively) low expectations for this storm, which is not a good sign if your looking for a big storm, as im not exactly known as a conservative forecaster. I still busted high as many areas including mine didn’t get a flake, but at least in the short range this was one of my better forecasts. No phasing+marginal temps in late March screams lean low on snowfall amounts.