George001

I just took a look at the long range on the main models I use for my analysis (Euro Canadian and Navy) and I this is what I see: Right now the Miller B threat on the 22nd is low probably as it develops too late based on what I am seeing on the Navy Euro and Canadian. The 26th storm threat is cutting to the west on the Canadian, on the Euro it appears to have some front end before going over to rain as the low passes to our west, and the navy appears to have plenty of precip with lots of warm air ramming into a cold airmass. Extrapolated, my analysis is that the navy would likely be a more euro type solution with a front end and then changeover to rain as the low looks like it is moving west. Both threats need work, but the main takeaway here is at least the models have a low for both threats. The risk with the 22nd is it develops too late and crushes Downeast Maine and Nova Scotia, and with the 26th the risk is like with Mondays system it tracks too far west, bringing the warm air in and changing us over to rain. The key will be if we can get the 22nd low to dig more, that will result in earlier cyclogenesis, bringing the risk of blizzard conditions for a few hours to Eastern Mass as well as Downeast Maine and Nova Scotia. This will not be a Feb 2013 situation due to a more progressive flow, and the storm will likely be a fast mover. However fast movers can still produce decent amounts of snow, and more importantly if this storm undergoes earlier cyclogenesis and peaks farther south that will buckle the flow, making it so instead of being west to east it is more SW to NE, giving future storms room to dig as the northern stream energy stops crashing into the west coast and instead drops into the middle portion of the country. This would allow storms to amplify instead of getting shredded by the flow, leading to miller Bs redeveloping farther south, undergo earlier cyclogenesis, and move slower, giving us the potential for historic slow moving blizzard that we haven’t had in years.

Light snow here in Foxbourough Mass now

The NWS has us eastern Mass getting 6-8 with the 2nd low after this first one shunts east. Yeah I know I was wrong about that, I thought we would get a few inches out of it but several people here did try to tell me. Damn snow goggles got in my way yet again. I personally believe that low will surprise people and deliver more snow than expected but it’s a tough call, 20 miles even makes a huge difference so a lot of bust potential.

Thanks for the explanation, hopefully we can get a nice one in March before it really warms up to the 60s and 70s. The first thing I thought of when reading this was April 1st 1997 blizzard, I have been told that was one of the biggest blizzards ever in Eastern mass with 2ft+ being common.

I have heard the term bowling ball used to describe snowstorms but I’m not really sure what is meant by that, so I wanted to ask what it means.

It worked out great, I got a foot Superbowl Sunday, the storm Monday went north and rained but we have a major storm on our doorstep. Even if my forecast busts the NWS has 6-8 which is still a solid storm. That would be 2/3 storm threats delivering 6+ storms to my area, so no complaints here. Not every threat is going to work out but the pattern we are in right now has been good to my area, I have already gotten 20 inches of snow on the month. The models called for an active snowy pattern in Feb, and it delivered, and now they are extending it into early March before a warm up. After the warm up in Early March the question is does that stay and we get early spring or do we get a couple more weeks of winter after that? I believe we will get 2-3 weeks after the 1st week warmup but even if we don’t get another inch of snow I’m happy with how this winter went considering how bad things looked with the polar vortex over the North Pole in November.

The 22nd-23rd as well as the 26th are 2 legitimate threats coming up. The 22-23rd threat especially is looking better on the models, the strength of the low has increased and it is developing earlier than the models had yesterday. It is still too far north but if we can get that low to develop even 50 miles south things could get interesting really fast.

What changes do we need in the upper levels to allow for an earlier developing and intensifying Miller b rather than shearing out?

I’m expecting a few inches with that orange in philly coming ENE but the main show looks to be the second low. It looks like Rays meat grinder idea is going to be correct though, it is moving ENE not straight up NE. The shunt east was correct, though It looks like the heavy precipitation will make it a little farther north than the models had before the shunt east. Since the first low is stronger and is underwent cyclogenesis earlier than expected, while it will get shunted east it will weaken Rays meat grinder more than the models thought which should allow the second low to deliver the knockout punch and destroy the weakened meat grinder. As the second low undergoes intense cyclogenesis due to the 500 millibar going negatively tilted farther west and earlier than expected, intense precip will be thrown back west, with the jet dynamics creating areas of heavy banding farther west than modeled.

Too early to say it will get shunted east. Looking at the radar it might not.

hopefully that meat grinder pattern ray talked about goes away by the 26th. It’s there on the models right now but it doesn’t look like it would take much to make that threat better.

Idk it seems like whenever dc does well we get screwed and vice versa. There’s a reason why they root for the opposite patterns that we do, they root for strong ninos and we root for strong ninas. If they get hammered usually the storm track is too far south for us, and if we get hammered usually it’s a Miller b so they get screwed because the storm transfers too late.

I agree it’s not unusual, but when it happens it typically means the low is farther west than expected. we have had several storms this year do that. The mid dec storm, the early feb storm, Superbowl Sunday storm, and now this one. In all 3 other storms the low ended up farther west and stronger than modeled. Now to be fair that doesn’t always mean more snow for us, in the early feb storm it actually meant less since the farther west low allowed more warm air to come in than expected, keeping totals down. The difference is we are on the northern edge of guidance this time where as then we were on the southern edge. Warm air farther north than expected in the mid Atlantic is good for us if we are on the northern edge of guidance and bad if we are on the southern edge.

DC busting due to the warm air getting farther north than expected is a good sign for us, as the models did not have the low that far north and west. When combined with the models ramping up a bit I see no reason to change my forecast.

It may not be but it’s a very close call, the next few hours will be telling with the transfer to the new low having begun.

Thanks, based on this observation the 12k nam is around 25-50 miles east and 1mb weaker than the current obs. There appears to be more convection down south as well, which is aiding in earlier deepening of the low as it comes up the coast. This should translate to both a farther west and stronger low as it comes up the coast.

What’s the current pressure of the storm vs modeled?

Snow is already in western CT? WOW! Snow was not expected to get up there this early, this screams overperformer in all of mass, CT, RI, even into NH/VT/ME. Unlike previous storms where the cape has been mostly rain this year I believe even the cape and islands is going to get a foot. It will likely start as rain but as the low undergoes bombogenesis and comes up the coast even your area should go over to heavy snow due to stronger dynamics cooling off the temp profile.

Based on the latest obs and newest model data I’m not taking em down at all.

I am the New England weenie who is forecasting 12-15 with isolated 16-20 totals for all of Mass and up into central NH/VT/Southeast Maine. With what the models are showing today I don’t blame you for calling me a wishcaster but just saying it’s too early to say that 16-20 isn’t happening. Based on the low being farther west and stronger than modeled 16-20 isn’t out of the question in Central Mass to the Berkshires, and into the Hudson Valley. I was actually going to change my forecast and take em down but when I looked at the radar I decided not to do so. At least wait until the storm is over before clowning on my forecast, if it does bust and the jackpot is 6-8 then my forecast deserves to be clowned, but it’s too early to call it a bust. Hell I’ll even join you guys in clowning my own forecast if it busts that bad.

When the radar looks great it means overperformer most of the time. There is nothing suggesting that the low will be shunted east. This is coming west all of Mass will likely get 12+. The radar supports my forecast, not the nam.

NAM is garbage, it initialized badly. The low is farther west and stronger than what the nam has. Red is where the low is yellow is where the nam had it. Many on this board even those well to the north and west will end up surprised to see that they ended up with over a foot of snow rather just the couple of inches they are forecast.

I’m glad I held off on taking em down, the high end of my forecast is going to bust but it looks like the low end is still in play (widespread foot with 16 jackpots) based on the obs of the low being both stronger and farther west than expected. It appears that the models underestimated the convection down south, the low is tapping into even more gulf moisture than expected and as a result is bombing out more than expected, and is coming more north and west than expected. The stronger low throwing precip back farther west, which on top of the low itself being more north and west than expected is leading to precip getting into areas like WV that we’re not forecast to be getting anything at this hour. The models right now have the 2nd low scraping the cape, but when taking obs into account it is appearing more likely that the 2nd low is going to undergo bombogenesis and bring heavy snow as far west as the berkshires. I’m starting to think the mistake I made was losing confidence in my forecast just because of one bad set of runs.

This gives me hope that we can have an outside shot at reaching the lower end of my forecast. Obs are arguably more valuable than model data at this point (both are useful though, it would still be foolish to outright ignore the models). A great example of this is the Superbowl sunday storm, the models had 2-4 inches over my area, and even with ratios only 5-6. However, the obs did not match the model data at all, the precip was more expansive and the low was stronger and more northwest than forecasted, which was a huge red flag that forecasts were too low. Some good signs when the models have the snow to the south are more precip than expected down south, the rain snow line being farther north than expected, and the mountains and interior areas overproducing while DC and the coastal mid atlantic gets screwed by a warm layer. One thing I learned from my time on the other mid Atlantic centered board is we are often rooting for the opposite things. DC weenies love strong El Niño’s like 2015-2016, where as my area loves strong la ninas like 2010-2011. DC weenies often wants a more de amplified and farther south low to avoid mixing where as eastern mass weenies want a more amplified solution that might rain there. The key is what does the storm do down south, if the DC posters on the other board are rejoicing, we are probably screwed and if the DC posters are screaming bust, we are likely in for a major storm. That said there are exceptions such as Jan 1996, but the setup for this storm is nothing like that one, and looks to be a more typical situation where it’s DC and the coastal mid Atlantic getting it or us getting it.

If you use QPF and model snow maps no model ever agreed with my forecast. However on the gfs solution the upper levels and the dynamics indicate that that we would get more snow than those snow maps, likely the lower end of my forecasts. However the 16-20 wouldn’t verify anywhere so that part would bust. That said, it’s the gfs, and it’s the most amplified out of all the models. That said, the gfs is a garbage model and will likely be wrong. When looking at the models that are actually good, yeah my forecast is as cooked as Cam Newton’s arm. On the european especially there is absolutely nothing that supports even half of my forecast. The dynamics that were previously modeled to enhance precip as well as ratios over New England are more offshore now, so there is nothing to bring us even the lower end of my forecast. I was confident that we would get 12-15 and locally 16-20, and I am probably going to be wrong. I’m still going to give it until the overnight runs to take em down though, just in case if the models jump back and undo all the south and dry trends tonight. It looks like the La Niña is going to help give us at least some snow, but not as much as I thought it would. hopefully the La Niña can help us for the Miller b threat on the 23rd like I thought it would for this one. When I see a La Niña, I don’t give up on winter until April unless the polar vortex is over the North Pole.