George001

The next month will be very telling, as the cfsv2 is forecasting a rapid strengthening over the next month, bringing the Nina from weak now to strong by early November, and then peaking in December as a borderline super Nina at -1.9.

09-10 was a fairly strong nino. I am very critical of Joe for his views on climate change, 09-10 actually ended up being a decent analog for the 2016 winter (both winters sucked up in New England, great in the mid Atlantic). I don’t consider either 09-10 or 15-16 to be snowy or cold winters at all, so Joe wasn’t entirely off base there. That said, this winter there will be no El Niño. It is more likely that I die tomorrow from a giant meteor strike than it is of an El Niño developing for the winter. La Niña is increasing in strength, and is already up to weak territory. It is around -.7 right now in the enso 3.4 region, and the strength of the La Niña will only continue increasing with the subsurface being even colder than last years at this time. I could be wrong here but I do believe the surface will catch up, and it will catch up fast. In my opinion, the La Niña will not be weak. The CFSV2 is forecasting the La Niña to peak at nearly -2 in the Enso 3.4 region, which is borderline super Nina territory. This is likely overdone, but other models have increased the strength of the La Niña as well. Euro moved from weak to moderate, NMME moved from moderate to strong. I am actually thinking that it is more likely that the La Niña peaks at strong than it is for La Niña to stay weak with how things have progressed recently. High end moderate/low end strong is where I am leaning, a middle ground between the cfsv2 and less aggressive guidance like the euro.

I’m very excited for this upcoming winter, it’s a great sign that the polar vortex is weak.

That’s only true for the lower mid Atlantic. NYC North does just as well in strong Nina as enso neutral. Strong Nina+ severe North Atlantic blocking is an extremely good combo for snow in New England from what I have read. If the polar vortex was forecast to be strong then I would be worried about storms burying Wisconsin while we rain, but it is forecast to be weak. I do believe the strength of the La Niña will increase to just below 2010-2011 levels. Many weenies panicked and canceled winter that year too when they saw how powerful the La Niña was, but then us New England weenies got buried. It’s not like the La Niña drastically weakened or wasn’t coupled to the atmospheric pattern either, it was well coupled and while we got buried by blizzards in December and January, the La Niña was strong.

Ok that makes sense, so even though a trough in the west is more likely in Ninas it’s not necessarily bad here if we get blocking. With blocking it would force the lows that initially cut into Wisconsin due to the trough in the west to redevelop off the coast and turn into Miller bs that bury us with feet of snow. That explains why the risk with stronger ninas is rain while Wisconsin gets buried, where as the risk with strong ninos is DC getting buried. I do believe the North Atlantic blocking will be severe so maybe when combined with the trough out west, it will still end up being an epic Miller b pattern with 5-6 blizzards in eastern mass this upcoming winter.

What? I don’t understand….. how is that possible, if it means a trough in the west how are we averaging more snow in La Niña than moderate or stronger ninos? How is weak La Niña the second snowiest Enso state. I thought La Niña meant a more active northern branch and a weaker pacific jet due to less warm air flooding the country. I hate it when there is a trough in the west, it seems like when that happens it always gets too warm for snow here and the blizzards end up burying Colorado instead of here.

As long as we don’t have a trough in the west with the expected North Atlantic blocking the La Niña should help us prevent storms from missing to the south and burying DC and Philly.

Where’s the 2010-2011 winter? There was over 80 inches of snow that winter, and the La Niña was strong. The chart I saw had strong La Niña, moderate La Niña, and enso neutral all at roughly the same snowfall average. This chart also had the 2010-2011 winter with the highest dot in the strong La Niña category being at right around 80.

Only 2 blizzards the whole year

I was not aware of that, that is good to know. That is a valid concern, the water is just too warm off the Newfoundland coast. Hopefully the ssts there start to cool. However, the models are still saying the polar vortex will probably be weak, and the pacific ssts are still looking great so if we can get the polar vortex to cooperate this winter should be much better than last winter.

The panicking about the increase in strength of the La Niña on the models is becoming widespread. It is justified for mid Atlantic people but for us if anything with the sst profile and expected weak polar vortex it is a good thing.

In the mid Atlantic yes, NYC north no. The La Niña= bad thing is a myth, the two worst Enso states for snow are moderate and strong El Niño’s. You have roughly the same snowfall average in a strong la nina and enso neutral. I live in eastern mass and I am extremely excited about the increase in strength of the La Niña when combined with the sst profile.

Love to see it, the strength of the La Niña is increasing. Not only that, but the SSTs are starting to trend favorable off the west coast. The pacific ocean as a whole is cooling off, while the ssts remain warmer around the North Pole, which should help weaken the polar vortex. This is a great sign for a severe New England winter. 2010-2011 redux.

Average temps in Feb? After the last few years I would gladly take that and run. Hell even slightly above average like +1 isn’t that bad. Average to slightly above avg temp but with a stormy pattern can still mean a very snowy month in New England.

Nope, that pattern would be great with North Atlantic blocking. In my opinion the lack of blocking is probably bullshit due to the weak polar vortex. The models are also likely overdoing the strength of the pacific jet because the strength of the La Niña is increasing more than expected. That should help cool the ocean off, preventing the pacific jet from strengthening and flooding the country with mild air. 200 inches is not the most likely scenario but it is very possible with the polar vortex expected to be one of the weakest on record.

With the polar vortex forecast to be extremely weak, that lack of North Atlantic blocking is probably bullshit

In my opinion this year they are viable analogs. The models are forecasting an extremely weak polar vortex, and combined with the SST profile it is likely we see plenty of North Atlantic blocking in the first half of the season. The strength of the La Niña is also drastically increasing, with a likely 200+ ACE index hurricane season going on the books everything is lining up for an extremely snowy New England winter. Moderate-strong la ninas with severe North Atlantic blocking is a great pattern for snow in New England (Miller Bs). When you get an active hurricane season like that, all those storms will buckle the flow, causing it to slow down and give storms more room for to dig, go negatively tilted and undergo rapid cyclogenesis. Then you have sever North Atlantic blocking on top of that, increasing the ceiling even more. We are lined up to not only see a big 20+ inch Miller b blizzard NYC north, but we are lined up to see 3-4+ of them. I honestly think this winter has a very real shot to be better than 1995-1996. I’m starting to consider the possibility of doubling 1995-1996 in the Boston area if we get a few lucky breaks with the pattern that is shaping up, the ceiling is that high. I truly believe this upcoming winter is going to go down in the record books as a 1 in a million type weather pattern, one that even considered to be possible in New England.

That is a strong central based La Niña, which combined with an extremely weak polar vortex would make for a very interesting winter in New England. The La Niña should result in a farther north and west storm track, likely many lows coming up through Chicago or even Wisconsin! I know that sounds bad but when you have lows coming up that far west while there is North Atlantic blocking in place, we would likely see the lows transfer to off the Jersey Shore or south of long island, and then come up the coast. Yep, that’s a Miller B pattern! DC and Philly aren’t going to like it very much, they would just get rain or only a couple inches of snow at most, while NYC and Boston get buried. The severe blizzard last December had that exact track, and Wisconsin, NYC, and Boston all experienced blizzard conditions. I still remember before the storm there was a big argument over on the other forum that I’m banned on, with half the people arguing that the storm would be a Miller A that would bury the mid Atlantic (gfs camp), and half arguing that the storm would be a Miller B that buried NYC north (Euro/Canadian/Navy camp). In the end, the la nina ended up winning that battle and the storm shifted like 500 miles north on the models just 2-3 days out! It was amazing, the forecast amounts went from 2-4, to 4-8, to 8-12, and then a day before the storm hit the models all converged on a Miller B and the TV Mets upped the forecast in my area to 12-18. I ended up getting 15, when just 3 days ago Philly/DC was expected to get hammered while we were on the northern fringe, expected to get at most 4 inches. Instead, they rained, we got a foot+, and the jackpot was actually north of us, Binghamton NY got 4 feet! If it weren’t for the La Niña, that storm likely would have hammered Philly and DC while we got nothing!

Woah! The latest update of the CFSv2 has the MEAN down to -1.8 and one member increases the strength of the La Niña to -3! The surface has cooled quite a bit over the past week, and is expected to continue cooling in the enso region into late fall/early winter. If this ends up being right, it would have major implications on the winter forecast.

I’m going all in with the navy on this one, so I’m leaning towards 50+ ACE. The strength of the La Niña is increasing, which combined with the pattern on the models is making me very bullish on the back end of this hurricane season. At 128 already, with Sam possibly taking us to 140 or so even if we have an average La Niña rest of hurricane season (30 or so ace after Sam), that would put us at 170 and that’s ignoring the Navy. If the Navy is right we could see 220+.

I disagree. The navy is showing signs of hurricane development off the gulf coast. This hurricane season has been severe with an ACE index of 128, well above climo for the ENTIRE season (105). It is very possible if not likely when all is said and done, we end up with over double that.

As of today, we are already at 128 ACE, above the climo average of 105 ACE. This hurricane season has been severe, and in my opinion is likely to continue. On average, we gain 20 ACE from now until the end of hurricane season, however we currently have Hurricane Sam still going strong, and based on what I have seen from the navy and european guidance, the pattern remains good for more hurricanes. Therefore, in my opinion the ACE will likely increase at a rate well above climo, and will likely end around or even above 200. This has a major impact on the winter outlook.

El Niño like STJ in a La Niña? That would be awesome, didnt both 2010-2011 and 1995-1996 have that? That is the area that ninos have an edge over ninas, in ninas the southern branch isn’t as active which lowers the ceiling for individual storms. The northern branch is more active through so in ninas we are less likely to get a 2 ft+ blizzard, but more 6-12 events than ninos. Correct me if I’m wrong but when you combine the STJ with a nina induced active northern branch, doesn't that drastically increase the ceiling and the frequency of storms? In both 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 we had 3+ severe blizzards vs only 1 last winter (in my area).

The ACE is going to probably end up over 200 this year when all is said and done. This hurricane season has been historic.

The thing is, the epic 2014-2015 winter dumped 100+ inches of snow in the Boston area AFTER Jan 25th. In the epic 2010-2011 winter by mid Jan Boston already had around 50 inches of snow. Both those winters as epic as they were wasted half the winter, in my opinion the ceiling is something like dec- late Jan 2010-2011 the first half of winter, late Jan to late Feb 2014-2015, and then March 2018 all in one year. I do believe there is a very real chance we get that this winter with how the Enso, polar vortex, and ssts are looking right now. If we do get that, that would be well over 150 inches of snow in the Boston area.