George001

Another factor in me leaning towards a higher impact event is the pattern we are in. We are in a full fledged La Niña pattern with a cold Canada and SE ridge brining well above normal temps to the southern states. With the SE ridge in place this storm can only go so far south. In this type of pattern I have no problem with the models having the bullseye a bit south of us.

Fair point, but in a setup like this with cold upper levels as well as surface, and strong jet dynamics, I would lean towards even those kuchera maps being underdone like they were during the Superbowl storm. There is tons of jet energy with this system, which leads me to believe that the models are underestimating the precip from the storm.

This is one of the drier runs yet when using kuchera it still gives 6-8 inches of snow. As long as it doesn’t trend that’s a good sign that the euro is still giving us 6-8 inches during a weaker run. It needs some work, but it’s not far from something much better.

how come the euro is so dry? That’s kinda concerning, hopefully just a blip run.

One thing I learned is the snow maps are often wrong. If it’s cold enough the snow will be fluffier and we will get more snow than the maps are saying, where in more marginal setups where it’s warmer then it will be a heavy wet snow with less snow than the maps are saying. This storm appears to fall into the former camp, with temps dropping to the 20s during the storm. If the models have 6-80 inches of snow with temps in the 20s, I would double that and make a forecast. I’m going to stick to my earlier forecast with 12-15 in the Boston area and more to the NW.

Canadian appears to have moved in that direction as well, it was originally modeled as a fast mover with a more limited ceiling just yesterday but all of a sudden new lows came out of nowhere. Instead of this being one low it’s 2-3 lows, which increases the duration and total snowfall. While this isn’t a blizzard with rapid accumulations, it appears to be 30+ hours of moderate snow which can and will produce significant snowfall. We had one storm like that in feb 2015 that led to 2 feet of snow in the Boston area.

Yeah guidance is all over the place right now, it going north of us is very possible. Hell some models like the navy don’t even have a low, which is concerning. I personally think this storm more than likely will miss because right now it doesn’t have enough support on the models, but i am still keeping an eye on it because despite being lower probability right now, if it does trend in the right direction we could be talking feet.

With the 22nd Miller b threat it appears the key to that storm is how quickly does the offshore low develop before bombing out and moving to the northeast. Right now, the european guidance redevelops the low farther south and is a more favorable track for significant snow. However other guidance is redeveloping the low too far north, so we rain. The question is what is right? In my opinion the european guidance has the right idea in redeveloping the low farther south, as is it has around 10 inches of snow in eastern mass. However, if it digs a little more and we get the entire evolution a bit farther south, that would give the low more time to bomb out as it approaches our latitude, which would increase both the precip and winds over the area. It is too early for a forecast, but this one has an extremely high ceiling, much higher than even the Friday storm which appears to be quite significant and is trending in the right direction, and is also a Miller b.

Of Boston’s top 10 snowstorms how many of them were miller As and how many were Miller Bs? I know the blizzard of 78, Jan 2015 blizzard, Feb 2013 blizzard, and the Jan 2005 blizzard were all Miller bs but I’m not sure about the other ones on this list. https://www.wbur.org/news/2015/01/26/boston-biggest-snowstorms

The euro improved for both the Friday Storm and the following Tuesday. It has half a foot on Friday, and It looks to have a Miller b the following Tuesday. For the Tuesday storm it has a low transfer from Ohio off the coast, strengthening into a 995mb low right over Nantucket. This could lead to blizzard conditions if things trend in the right direction over the next few days.

How do the snow maps look for the new euro run? I don’t have access to them.

Hopefully we can get the euro on board tonight

I am a believer in this patterns potential to break records. We have already seen some unusual things with 9 inches of snow in Seattle, temps in the teens and single digits in Texas, a 3-4 inch snowstorm in DALLAS with another one coming. This pattern is an extreme and record breaking pattern, if any pattern can break snowfall records in March, it’s this one. We have already seen that when compared to the last 2 winters that this one is built different. That said, if I’m right we will far exceed those 80-90 totals. We will get that in March alone if my forecast is correct, so I will have to adjust that upwards.

Isn’t it more of a Miller b? When I looked at the models I saw 2 lows, one in the mid west and one off the coast. Newer runs appear to be strengthening the low offshore more with a weaker Midwest low.

thanks for the welcome guys, I’m happy to be here and look forward to learning and getting better at making forecasts. Hopefully we can get multiple Miller bs before the end of winter to track!

The navy is a great model, it’s extremely underrated in my opinion. My biggest forecast busts are when I ignore the navy because it’s not showing what I want. My best forecasts come when I blend the navy euro and Canadian.

I was confident, but then I busted because I overestimated the strength of the low multiple times in earlier storms.

I’m just gonna be straight with you guys and tell you, I’m as much of a weenie as it gets and can get carried away with my forecasts sometimes, which has led to me getting muted on the other forum. I want to make sure that doesn’t happen again here so I wanted to ask if there are any guidelines I should follow to avoid that. By the way, while I’m not carried away over a specific model run, I’ll give you guys some advice on how the George model works. Take my forecasts and cut them in half (take 1/3rd of my snow forecasts if it’s a Miller b), and then take the output.

I think the models are underestimating the strength of the low Thursday, and therefore are also underestimating the liquid that will fall. This is my forecast for the following areas cape- 6-10 heavy wet snow before turning to a mix Bos-PVD corridor- 10-15 inches with blizzard conditions at times, possibly ending as a bit of ice Worcester, Berkshires, North and West of Boston- 15-20 inches, all snow

Miller Bs?

Disclaimer- the following is an amateurs analysis of the upcoming pattern in March. I am trying to learn more so I welcome all constructive criticism, as it will help me make better forecasts. My goal is to learn enough to make winter forecasts like some of the more experienced members of the board. This winter has been pretty good for me in the foxborough area so far, much better than most winter forecasts predicted. I have been following the long range forecasts and it appears the polar vortex is expected to re consolidate, now the question that will determine whether winter ends or we get another 4-6 weeks or so (prob closer to 4 but late March even can’t be ruled out), is where will the polar vortex go when it re strengthens? If it ends up over central to western Canada like some of the models are showing we will probably have more snow threats but since that is more west we will likely be fighting ptype issues, as is typical in March. If it goes over the North Pole winter is likely over and we will see record warmth. If it goes farther south in southern central Canada we could see multiple blizzards with record breaking cold and the potential for the Boston area to double its yearly avg snowfall. Based on my analysis of both the models and the current pattern drivers, I am of the belief that we will indeed see 4-6 more weeks of winter with multiple Miller Bs delivering several feet of snow to Eastern Mass. I don’t buy the early spring calls, while we had a rough stretch between the December storm and late jan, it appears that the strong La Niña in place has taken over and is now dominating the pattern. We had a record warm pacific in the early part of winter, but the strong La Niña has done its work to cool the pacific down and allow Canadian air masses to spread farther south and east since there isn’t as much mild pacific air to modify them anymore, which led to our storm threats this week and the historic ice storm in the Deep South. That La Niña hasn’t gone anywhere, and will continue to influence our pattern in March. With the pacific now having been cooled down by our La Niña, combined with the seasonal transition that occurs during March, I see a month with wild temp swings, a battle between an anomalously strong ridge in the southeast and equally anomalous frigid air straight from the North Pole spilling into the northern tier of the country. This extreme contrast in temperatures should create a boundary where storms will form, and it will help juice them up. Due to the southeast ridge in place these storms aren’t going out to sea. In fact I am of the belief that storms will initially try to cut to Ohio, but will run into a brick wall in the form of a frigid, snowpack enhanced arctic airmass and will then reform to the south, rapidly gaining strength due to the southeast ridge enhanced warm waters, coming up the coast and throwing record breaking amounts of moisture into a frigid arctic airmass sitting over New England. This is a Miller b pattern that I believe we will see quite often in March, with a perfect storm of seasonal transition, La Niña, and climate change enhanced thermal gradient allowing lows to rapidly deepen to the 950s and even 940s, hurricane force lows bringing extreme wind to Eastern Mass and several feet of snow PER STORM. These Miller bs will bring blizzard conditions to the Boston area while DC is raining. I do not expect the deep snowpack to last long, with some days having the warm air winning the battle bringing us into the 60s and 70s, with several of these days especially in the latter half of March being sandwiched between historic Miller B blizzards with temps in the teens. When all is said and done, I predict 80-90 inches of snow for the year in the Boston Area. what do you guys think about the rest of winter and my analysis? I haven’t been this excited about a winter stretch since March 2018, and before that Feb 2015.

No I lurk here since it’s more New England centric where as the other board is mid Atlantic, so often I am rooting for different trends on the models than they are. For example they don’t like miller bs very much where as if I see a Miller b on the models I get extremely excited and start thinking about my deck being buried underneath so much snow that I can’t see it anymore, with snow depths up to my waist. Though for this storm I agree 2 feet is probably not going to happen but if things break right maybe 12-18 inches? Superbowl Sunday was a nice storm for me, very fast mover and the models had 3-6/4-8 type amounts but a band of extremely heavy snow sat on my house for several hours which led to me getting around a foot instead.

Foxborough area, I am a strong believer in the potential of this storm due to the model shift from a low cutting to our west to a Miller B, Miller Bs are usually the type of storms that deliver massive amounts of snow to my backyard, sometimes upwards of 2 feet.

Hi this is George from the other weather board, i also lurk here sometimes since this is a more New England centric form rather than mid Atlantic. I have been following the models and am really exited for this storm, it seems to be trending into a Miller b rather than cutting up into Ohio which should increase the ceiling of the storm. What do you guys think about the potential of this storm?