George001

The euro has a Miller b for the 20th

I track from mid October to mid April. I know it isn’t going to snow in mid October but I like to look at the models to start tracking the pattern for a couple of weeks down the line when snow chances pop up( very small chances but still if I believe there is even a 1% chance of a snowstorm in the next couple of weeks, I track). Yes it is very rare but it does happen. It snowed in October just this year where I live, and just a few years ago it snowed in April. I wasn’t alive then but there was one year where there was a massive blizzard that dropped over 2 feet of snow in all of eastern mass in early April. I know it is harder to get snow than it used to be due to global warming but I will never give up on tracking storms and stop being a weenie because of it.

On the Canadian it appears after near record warmth this week, we have 3 miller b nor’easters from March 17th to March 20th. According to the upper level pattern the first 2 threats are unlikely to be big if anything. However it is the third low that catches my interest. Leading up to the storm there is a huge ridge out west which should allow for storms to amplify, slow down, and come up the coast. Since the flow is slow and buckled on the Canadian, the room for error when it comes to phasing of the northern and southern streams increases. Any storm that does develop will undergo rapid cyclogenesis and come up the coast as a massive slow moving ocean low. I strongly believe there will be a massive slow moving east coast storm but the big question is going to be precip type. At this point it will be late March so cold air won’t be as easy to come by. However, on the Canadian the polar vortex is not anywhere near the North Pole, it is displaced to the south and east. With the polar vortex sitting over east-central Canada as well as a highly amplified flow, the pattern favors northern stream energy diving into the Midwest, which would not only phase with the southern branch but it would also bring cold air in. It’s still far out and it is late March so there are factors working against us, but with the pattern in place there is the potential for a massive early spring blizzard in New England. If the threat does end up panning out, due to the gradient of warm March waters amplified by near record warmth clashing with cold air being funneled into the northeast via the polar vortex, that’s a recipe for a historically strong ocean low. 940s or 950s is not out of the question. However, the warm waters is a double edged sword, as it will be harder to overcome the warm ocean air, which will lead to rain in the coastal areas. In my opinion there will be ptype issues possibly as far west as Worcester with this type of setup. However, if the storm does reach this strength with a favorable track, it will likely be a start as rain and then as the low bombs out and the winds turn more north than north east, the rain snow line would crash right and all of eastern mass would flip over to heavy snow with blizzard conditions developing for 12+ hours due to the slow moving nature of the storm. The run didn’t go out that far, but in my opinion if you extrapolate the Canadian it would be a few hours of rain followed by a long duration blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 3 feet in all of eastern Mass. I’m not forecasting that just yet, but this does fit the pattern so there is a higher than usual chance something like that will happen.

As usual, the garbage gfs moved away from its outlier solution and caved to a similar upper level evolution of the superior european, Canadian, and if you extrapolate beyond 180 hours the navy as well. The blizzard in New England for the 14-16th time period on the gfs did not fit the pattern with the trough too far west on the better models. The good pattern doesn’t set in until the 20th or so according to the models.

Honestly the horrific stretch we have has over the last 5 years (3 horrible years, 1 great year, 2 avg-slightly above avg years) in my opinion is a combination of the after effects of the record strong nino, global warming, and bad luck. I know people don’t want to hear this (myself included) but it’s likely that global warming is playing a bigger role in this horrible stretch than snow lovers in New England would like. That said, I do think that we will still have epic winters in the future, I just don’t believe they will be as common as they used to be.

Nah your winter lasts until May, where I live in SE mass snow chances are long gone by mid April, but It has snowed even as late as June before up in northern New England (very unusual though).

Looking at the upper levels for on the European and Canadian models it appears that the 14th-16th threat will go to our west and rain due to the northern stream digging into Montana. That is a great snow setup for Wisconsin due to how early the trough goes negative, but not here. The Canadian is similar with the southern steam hanging back, and the northern stream diving into Montana tilting the trough negative out west. If you extrapolate the navy, it is similar to the Euro and Canadian as it has the southern stream hanging back, which would give the northern stream more time to dig out west and phase, tilting the trough negative and causing the storm to Cut to our west and give Wisconsin a blizzard. The gfs is the only model that has snow here due to the streams staying separate. The upper air pattern on the euro, navy, and Canadian do not support this solution so I am going to go with the better models and lean towards a warmer and rainier solution. However, it appears that the 20th time period looks better. During that time period the models bring the polar vortex south into central canada, which would allow for northern stream energy to drop more into the Midwest than Montana. Even if somehow the garbage Gfs was right with the upper air pattern, that upper air pattern does not support a blizzard for the 14th-16th timeframe due to the lack of northern stream. There is no mechanism to bring cold air in, that’s a rain to Canada setup. In March purely southern stream won’t cut it.

Your area really got hammered this winter. I haven’t looked recently but I’m pretty sure NYC is actually a few inches ahead of Boston for snow this year.

March 8th 2013 was my favorite storm. This wasn’t the best storm I have experienced in my life (that was a month earlier), but it was my favorite one due to how it came out of nowhere. Most of the weather stations had my area forecast for a 2-4/3-6 type storm before it changed over to rain. However, it never did change to rain. I went to sleep expecting only a few inches of snow on the ground when I woke up. I remember the following morning I woke up, looked out the window and saw 2 feet of snow! I was shocked and immediately turned on the news, and remember the TV meteorologist explaining how the temps were a couple of degrees colder than expected, which allows for the precip type to stay all snow as well as increase the ratios. Also the low absorbed another system that pulled it back in a bit and allowed it to stall 500 miles offshore. It was out to sea, but the storm was massive and the unusual retrograding motion allowed for it to ram a huge plume of Atlantic moisture into eastern mass and heavy bands of snow rotted over us. That second low came out of nowhere, if it didn’t come in the storm would not have became massive and would not have produced its own cold air which allowed for the precip to stay all snow. Really cool setup and as a huge weenie there is nothing better than a surprise blizzard that comes out of nowhere.

Yeah the Canadian is horrible on temps, when I use the Canadian for my forecasts I don’t even look at temps I only use it for the general upper air pattern, which it’s one of the best models there is for.

Lol I love the navy and believe it’s the most underrated model there is, but the Euro is in a tier of its own.

It’s looking like for the next week the polar vortex is locked over the North Pole with mild pacific air flooding the country, allowing temps to rise into the 60s even up in New England. European guidance says 60s next week, then maybe a couple snow threats the week after. I know it may seem crazy to think we will get snow threats after several days of 60s, but that is not unheard of especially in mid to late March in southern New England.

I have a ranking for the models that I’m somewhat familiar with tier 1- Euro tier 2- Canadian, navy, href tier 3- ukmet, nam, srefs, rgem tier 4- icon, kma, Jma, Brazilian metrogram, Australian, hrrr, rap tier 5- deep thunder tier 6- gfs, para In my opinion all models tier 4 and worse are garbage and aren’t even worth looking at other than purely for entertainment. Tier 3 is ok, horrible models to use on their own but can be decent in niche situations (Nam is decent for picking up warm layers in marginal setups 24 hours out, ukmet can be decent with upper level pattern but not surface temps, ect). Tier 2 is when you start getting into respectable models that are worth blending more heavily into your forecast, though the forecaster should take their flaws into account and adjust for them. Eg Href is the best short range model, navy has an se bias but is great at sniffing out storm tracks in the medium range, ect). Tier 1 is the euro, which is the best model by far. It is the best model there is in the long range for sniffing out patterns and it isn’t close. It is also a great model in the medium and short range, right up until the storm is over your head. It does over amplify and slow the southern branch down too much at times in the medium range, so that has to be taken into account when making a forecast. For ensembles vs op when making this ranking I include the entire suite in the ranking, as the ensembles share similar characteristics to the OP. They are pretty much what you get if you take the OP run and run it 20+ times with minute changes to the upper air pattern each one. This makes ensembles more useful in the long range where minute upper air changes in the short term lead to massive changes in the long term. In the medium and short range, the higher resolution OP is better. In the long range (8+ days out) I like an 80% european 20% Canadian blend, in the medium range (3-7 days out) I like a 50% European/30% Canadian 20% Navy blend, and in the short range I like a 30% European/20% HREF/15% Canadian/15% Navy/20% a blend of Tier 3 models of choice depending on which model is best for the setup we are in. This short range blend definitely needs the most work as I have been noticing many of my short range forecasts are busting due to me picking the snowiest short range models and blending them. My long and medium range system has been decent, but the short range is more of a work in progress as I am realizing that when I give myself room to pick my weenie bias leads to me picking the snowiest models even when it isn’t justified.

According to the chart above the earth has warmed roughly .8 degrees Celsius since 1980. This is roughly a 2 degrees Celsius of warming per century pace, which is approximately 4 times the pace of the previous century (roughly .5 degrees Celsius of warming). This is evidence that not only is the earth warming, but the rate of warming is rapidly accelerating. It is very concerning that a significant portion of the public does not believe that the earth is warming despite overwhelming evidence that it is.

The degradation of snow climo is very much a real phenomenon, I have noticed it even in New England. I am as big of a weenie as anyone and love the snow but I can’t ignore the reality that it is more difficult to get snow and cold than it used to be. It seems like marginal patterns that would have worked even 10 years ago don’t work anymore. Global warming is very much a factor, and it is becoming even more of a factor in recent years as the warming of our planet accelerates.

I agree. It won’t be extreme cold since climo is warmer in late March but I think it will be enough to get us one or two more blizzards before the end of the month.

The MJO wave is strengthening on the guidance. The models are now taking it into phase 2 which is good for snow in the east. I don’t think it’s over just yet.

Well, looks like the storm threat next week is dead. I thought the models would start to bring it back today, but if anything they got even worse. The navy got a rid of the low so now all 3 models that I use don’t have a low. It appears that my forecast for next week is going to bust big time. The pattern initially looked good, but we look to be getting unlucky with the placement of the polar vortex. Its too far south so it will squash the storm. At least we have threats to track though, it’s not like the polar vortex is going to sit over the North Pole for all of March. It looks like it will head to the pole for 10 days or so before we get more chances for major nor’easters in the second half of March. On the long range models after the warm up I notice that they are breaking off pieces of the polar vortex and they are coming into central and eastern Canada. The MJO also appears to be going into the cold phases at a high amplitude, which should allow for a couple more chances before spring climo takes over. With both the Atlantic and the pacific drivers looking to become more cooperative in the 2nd half of March, we are not out of the woods yet despite getting unlucky with the polar vortex squashing the storm threat next week.

Unfortunately for our major storm threat next week the euro doesn’t even have a low anymore. Im not going to give up on an eastern mass blizzard just yet though, the evolution of next weeks storm on the models is one you would see in a fast and progressive flow, which doesn’t fit the pattern we will be in. I don’t buy the fast flow at all with a ridge that amplified out west. When the models go against the pattern, they are usually wrong. For example the models were showing a huge blizzard in late February, but the flow was fast and the pattern did not support that so it made sense to disregard those solutions. For the storm threat next week, the models that are showing the northern and southern branches staying separate and everything “rolling over” instead of slowing down and phasing should be disregarded, because the pattern does not support a fast flow. The pattern supports a slow and amplified flow with the northern stream digging farther south and phasing rather than just rolling east and squashing our storm. Does this mean a blizzard is guaranteed? No, although I do believe a massive blizzard will retrograde back in and crush eastern mass with feet of snow, that isn’t the only outcome supported by the pattern. A close miss where the storm is strong but develops too late and crushes Nova Scotia or downeast Maine, whiffing eastern mass also fits the pattern. However, the runs that don’t even have a low are total bs and don’t fit the pattern at all. In my opinion the models are going to show a miss until like 3 or 4 days out, then will come to their senses and start showing a strong low retrograding back in and slamming eastern mass with a blizzard. The models do this a lot, they lose storms in the mid range and then bring them back in the short range.

The reason why people who live in eastern mass shouldn’t give up on the storm threat next week is that despite the fact that the pattern favors a large offshore ocean storm, we are pretty much sticking out into the ocean which helps us with these late developing nor’easters. The models aren’t quite there yet, looking at the upper levels it looks like the storm initially goes out to sea and the models are trying to phase the northern branch in, tilt the trough negatively and hook the low back in. Right now it’s just a bit too progressive to hook the low back in, but the overall pattern suggests that there is room for a cleaner phase and for the trough to go negative a little earlier, which would allow for the low to initially go to bermuda and then retrograde back in and slam eastern New England with a blizzard. I have seen several posts indicating that the overall longwave pattern is too far east to allow this low to come to the benchmark, which I agree with. The low isn’t coming to the benchmark, it’s going to likely be at least 100-200 miles southeast (probably more). The low will be tapping into incredible amounts of gulf moisture as the low develops to our south, and then once the northern stream phases in and the trough tilts negatively over the Atlantic Ocean, the low will get hooked back in to around what I believe to be 200-300 miles southeast of the benchmark. That’s out to sea! That means we aren’t getting anything right? In my opinion, that is wrong. My analogs are March 8th 2013 and March 13th 2018, both which were large ocean storms that went “out to sea”, hundreds of miles southeast of the benchmark. However, these storms had a similar longwave pattern with the unusual scenario where the storm fully phased over the Atlantic, and the trough tilted negatively which allowed the storm to retrograde from east to west, loop, and stall around 200 to even 500 miles southeast of the benchmark. While the low was out to sea, this unusual retrograding motion driven by the phasing and negatively tilted trough allowed for copious amounts of warm March gulf and Atlantic moisture from the rapidly strengthening offshore low to be rammed into the cold dry air in eastern mass. This would allow for heavy bands of snow to back in, strengthen, and rot over eastern mass for a long duration snowstorm. I know the models don’t look great right now but the pattern is screaming surprise early spring blizzard in eastern mass, and the euro and navy got better overnight, as the northern branch is phasing in earlier and the trough is going negative earlier, allowing the low to hook back in a bit (not enough yet, but closer than it looks at the surface). It’s important to keep in mind the navy has a progressive bias so seeing it as the second farthest west model is a sign that the models are too far east with the low.

Right now for me I would say this winter was a c+/b-, but after March I think it will be more like a B+/A-. The euro is already starting to bring the storm back, we are currently in the phase where models lose the storm and slowly start bringing it back, and then before you know it a blizzard is on our doorstep.

I know things don’t look great for the storm threat next week, but based on the pattern in place I don’t believe the storm will end up getting squashed despite what the models show. In my opinion the low will keep moving west on the models due to how amplified the western ridge is as well as the strong northern stream that has nowhere to go but dig south in this highly amplified and slow flow being shown on the models.

The Canadian is a miss this run, but it did bring the low back.

I know we are 7-8 days out, that’s why I said I’m not writing off the storm. However it’s important to be realistic, when one of the best models we have goes from a near miss with a strong storm just offshore to not even having a low that’s not a shift that can just be ignored. Maybe the Canadian picked up on something it didn’t before, but it could also just be an off run. Also you are wrong about the navy, it’s actually a great model if it’s used correctly. I strongly disagree with what you are saying about the navy. The navy has done a great job with catching onto real threats (2/1/21) and not biting on phantom threats (late jan). The navy does have a southeast bias, but it’s a useful tool. Its a great model in the mid-long range in identifying real vs fantasy storm threats. When the navy is on board for a big storm, even when other guidance is out to sea often it is picking up on something and it is a mistake to ignore that. It is usually saying that the other guidance is wrong and will correct west. On phantom threats, the navy often doesn’t even have a low. On the other hand the gfs, a model that many live and die by is absolutely horrible, it doesn’t even have a consistent bias, it’s just all over the place. It’s absolutely horrible at identifying patterns in the long range, and jumps around in the short range more than any other model. It’s honestly not even worth looking at, I personally don’t use it at all when making my forecasts. When my forecasts bust, if anything it’s because I’m not weighting the navy heavily enough if anything.

Uh oh, the low on the Canadian disappeared! I’m not going to lie, that’s concerning. I’m not going to write the storm off but not what I wanted to see. Hopefully the euro and navy look better tonight.