George001

Someones going to get over a foot with this storm. Models (like the NAM) are struggling with chasing convection, but they look really good at the 500mb.

The Canadian is still 4-6 in eastern mass at 10:1 ratios (and other guidance like the NAMis more aggressive with 6-8). I’ve read that when taking the snow growth profile into account it’s possible we could see 15:1 or even as high as 20:1 in heavy banding. If the higher snow ratios end up panning out, even if QPF isn’t crazy high the snow totals would be higher than expected, like during the superbowl storm last year.

2017-2018 like

Nah gotta wait for mid month for that, this one I think can get down to the low 980s or high 970s though.

What are you guys thinking for this year based on how things look right now?

I still believe the strength of the low is going to increase again on the models.

Only has like 4-6 inches here but that euro run is closer to a bigger hit. Get those .7s and .8s for QPF farther west and this becomes a big storm really quickly. I do think the models are underestimating the westward extent of the QPF due to feedback issues and chasing convection. Also with ratios (I read that the snow growth profile was expected to be really good with this event, so 12:1 or better is likely), it’s realistic that we see a widespread 8-12 with an iso 12-16 regardless of what the snow maps currently say.

Watch my 70-85 inch forecast for Boston this winter end up busting because it was too conservative, that would be hilarious.

I don’t remember seeing the long range ever looking this good last year

I’m not a gfs guy, but the other guidance has a similar look (maybe a bit less blocking, which is fine). I haven’t seen a look this good on guidance since March 2018, and us having a moderate snowstorm on our doorstep makes me optimistic that this pattern is for real and not a model hallucination.

This is looking to be a decent storm, and then a possible big one mid Jan. This is only the beginning of all hell breaking loose based on what the guidance shows. Jan 2011, March 2018, and dare I say it, Feb 2015. The pattern looks that good for mid month, and I’m all in.

I hope so, I was forecasted to get like 2-4 and ended up with a foot that storm.

Not a fan of the latest european guidance. Hopefully just a blip run

The long range looks really good, ridging out west and there are signs on some of the guidance that the north atlantic blocking comes back mid month.

In my area the Canadian and RGEM are already nearly at the low end of that, if we get a 50 mile tick NW with the low on all guidance that would make a huge difference. That’s what I’m banking on.

For what it’s worth, the navy has been moving NW quite a bit the past couple of runs. I like what I’m seeing from the big 3 (Euro, Canadian, Navy). My original thoughts have not changed, widespread 8-12 with an iso 12-16, as I believe the models are struggling with chasing convection and are placing the low too far se and are too weak with it as a result.

The Canadian is a great model, this matters in my opinion.

Canadian

The Canadian made a massive shift west!!!!!! LETS ****ING GO!

Im interested to see what the Canadian looks like

It is, but it came west at 18z. Still needs improvements though.

The eps came west last run, but it’s important to note there were 2 camps, 1 was the stronger solutions with a farther west track (mixing would be the concern) and another with father east, weaker solutions (low strength would be the concern).

I’m discounting every piece of guidance that shows a weaker solution because it doesn’t make sense with a shortwave that powerful and negatively tilted. disgusting, makes me sick! I hope they discontinue that piece of shit model!

I’m still more worried about mixing than the weaker solutions verifying.

….yeah it’s weaker, but the run had major initialization issues and is struggling with the pattern.