George001

the nam has initialization errors, too strong with the eastern low and too weak with the western one to begin with.

Biggest positive busts I can think of that happened recently were the Super Bowl storm last year, March 14 2018 blizzard, one early Feb 2016 and March 2019.

March 8 2013? I don’t know exactly what happened, but I read that the eastern low got absorbed by the western one or something weird like that happened. Anyways that storm I was forecast to get 2-4, got 20.

Is that a realistic possibility if the eastern low is absorbed by the western one, causing the western low to not only become dominant but to drastically strengthen?

What would happen if the eastern low gets absorbed by the western low as a result of the trough sharpening up and going negatively tilted earlier then expected, causing the bigger low to the west to eat the smaller one?

Yep, going to be fun to track this one.

The strength of the western low is 1008 mb right now, 4mb stronger than the NAM had it. The eastern low is also weaker, I’m not entirely sure what that means, but it’s probably a good sign that the storm as a whole will be stronger and more west. I hope so anyways.

My forecast of 8-12 iso 12-16 from a few days ago hasn’t changed yet and won’t, I’m sticking with my guns. Based on the storm over performing down south, if this busts I think it’s going to be a little too conservative.

Looks like the precip shield is more expansive then expected

The TV mets and NWS have increased their forecasts in my area today. The NAM looks like it’s having issues with the convection and it still drops 8-10 inches of snow in eastern mass. Imagine if that went away completely, it looks like models are strengthening the more tucked low than the one outside the benchmark.

Just a couple adjustments away? Like the sound of that!

For me if my area gets 8, I’ll be very happy with it. If we get 3-4, I’ll be disappointed. Many of the TV Mets and the NWS are forecasting 6-8 for my area, which plays a role in the amounts I’ll be happy with/disappointed with. Now if TV Mets and the NWS were forecasting a 2 ft blizzard and I got 8 inches that’s a different story.

NWS has always been on the more aggressive side even when the guidance looked really weak a couple days ago. Looks like they are doing a great job with this event. We will see tomorrow though.

Probably same areas that got hammered by the superbowl storm last winter.

Someones going to get over a foot with this storm. Models (like the NAM) are struggling with chasing convection, but they look really good at the 500mb.

The Canadian is still 4-6 in eastern mass at 10:1 ratios (and other guidance like the NAMis more aggressive with 6-8). I’ve read that when taking the snow growth profile into account it’s possible we could see 15:1 or even as high as 20:1 in heavy banding. If the higher snow ratios end up panning out, even if QPF isn’t crazy high the snow totals would be higher than expected, like during the superbowl storm last year.

2017-2018 like

Nah gotta wait for mid month for that, this one I think can get down to the low 980s or high 970s though.

What are you guys thinking for this year based on how things look right now?

I still believe the strength of the low is going to increase again on the models.

Only has like 4-6 inches here but that euro run is closer to a bigger hit. Get those .7s and .8s for QPF farther west and this becomes a big storm really quickly. I do think the models are underestimating the westward extent of the QPF due to feedback issues and chasing convection. Also with ratios (I read that the snow growth profile was expected to be really good with this event, so 12:1 or better is likely), it’s realistic that we see a widespread 8-12 with an iso 12-16 regardless of what the snow maps currently say.

Watch my 70-85 inch forecast for Boston this winter end up busting because it was too conservative, that would be hilarious.

I don’t remember seeing the long range ever looking this good last year

I’m not a gfs guy, but the other guidance has a similar look (maybe a bit less blocking, which is fine). I haven’t seen a look this good on guidance since March 2018, and us having a moderate snowstorm on our doorstep makes me optimistic that this pattern is for real and not a model hallucination.

This is looking to be a decent storm, and then a possible big one mid Jan. This is only the beginning of all hell breaking loose based on what the guidance shows. Jan 2011, March 2018, and dare I say it, Feb 2015. The pattern looks that good for mid month, and I’m all in.