George001

Agreed, the polar vortex is deepening, not weakening. This has been and will continue to be a strong polar vortex winter, and is actually expected to deepen to record strength in early Feb. However, the polar vortex doesn’t appear to be consolidated over the North Pole like 2011-2012. It is on our side of the globe, not a major split or displacement, but could mean there will be cold air around.

Disclaimer- it’s the gfs, so cannot be taken with anything more than a grain of salt. Also eastern mass appears to mix with sleet during part of the storm so it would be “only” like 30 inches in Boston instead of 40. Im very skeptical, due to the big 3 not being on board (Canadian extrapolated would be a Rainer, it blows up the following wave and the high begins to leave, like the Euro). Though if you extrapolate the navy, it has a very amplified ridge over Montana, which is the perfect spot if you want nor’easters over the benchmark. I also see some northern stream energy digging at hour 180 with less southern stream, so it looks like the extrapolated Navy would be more of a pure Miller B. Based on what I’m seeing with the lack of blocking, and farther west ridge axis and leaving high on the european and Canadian guidance, my thinking right now is suppression isn’t the concern, an inland runner is. I don’t really buy the GFS solution at all, I feel like there’s more room for us to get screwed than there is to get 30+ inches. I’d rather take my chances with a Navy like evolution, won’t see the 30+ with that but less ways to get screwed, and is more realistic.

I’m starting to panic because the polar vortex is deepening. If we don’t get hammered from this storm many areas could easily end up well below average for the winter. That would be a big disappointment considering how things looked a couple of weeks ago.

I’m actually not a fan of the look on the models. They close off at 500 mb way too far south and the high leaves by the time the storm gets up here. Looks like Miller asshole to me, we need this to become more of a Miller B.

I hate that it looks like there is troughing out west. Hopefully it’s wrong.

not gonna lie, I’m getting a little concerned that my area is going to finish the season with less than 40 inches of snow. The polar vortex is deepening, not weakening and the long range models are showing a trough out west. Things can change but not looking great right now. What are some possible wildcards that could cause things to break our way and prevent the polar vortex from deepening and consolidating over the North Pole?

Unfortunately it looks like the breaking down of the pattern is real. We havent gotten anything out of it yet, but still have a couple of weeks left. All it takes is one big one, my hope is we get a big one, then the thaw happens but only lasts like a week. The 26th looks like it has potential with the southern energy ejecting, if we can get it to time with northern stream energy this could be our big one. The navy in particular is more amplified than the other models for that threat, which is a massive red flag that should not be ignored.

Models are struggling with the pattern still, they don’t know which wave to focus on and blow up yet.

If the energy keeps getting held back that’s bad for the 22nd threat, but could lead to the 24th being a big one instead as the northern stream energy behind it phases in.

This winter has started slower than usual but we have had plenty of winters start like this and end up great.

Is it possible we get both if the 24th wave slows down a bit to increase the wave spacing?

Just last week we had a nice storm with 6-12 for most of the area, some areas even got 14-15 inches. This storm we just had was our second threat and it didn’t work out for us. It happens, not every threat can pan out, but the pattern is still very good.

It’s only 5 days out from the storm. This is different, also it’s the best model there is. If anything these maps are underselling the potential of this storm, if it verifies like the Euro says the snow ratios will be much higher than 10 to 1. With the storm last week the models had my area getting 4-6 inches or so, but I got a foot due to the snow ratios being much higher than 10:1. The QPF the euro is projecting is expected to be around double what it was for that storm, and the low is expected to be stronger. If the Euro is correct, due to the frigid temps in the upper levels and the optimal snow growth soundings this would really end up being like 16-20 inches of snow for eastern mass.

look how far west that ridge is, I don’t buy the out to sea solutions at all. If anything the concern would be an inland runner due to the lack of blocking and positioning of the ridge, but fortunately the phase looks to happen later than it did for the storm that just happened. When we have the best model on board for a big storm, it shouldn’t be ignored. It’s not like it’s 10 days out either, this run of the Euro has blizzard conditions in eastern mass just 5 days out, and it had a big storm though a bit se last run too. The Canadian has also had the storm off and on, right now it’s a bit se but it does have a low.

Cold blizzard is right, the temps are in the single digits nw of the coastal front over se mass.

I see a 986 mb low just inside the benchmark there. Hopefully it doesn’t run inland like the storm coming tomorrow.

The Canadian has a 967 mb low over Western mass, but it’s snowing se of the low, that’s amazing I’ve never seen anything like it. The airmass must be insane.

I expect a late 2012-2013 look to walk in. Not 2014-2015 but a couple huge storms.

Yeah I’ve accepted that it will rain on Monday, Miller As suck you were right to call it miller asshole even when the models looked decent for a couple of runs. Nice storm for the mountains though.

I see a 983 mb low over Nantucket

I know that unless the Navy is right (it’s likely too far se with the low) my area is likely cooked in terms of all snow due to the all the warm air coming inland in the upper levels. However, I do still think my area can get a few inches of snow initially before the mid levels warm up. It’s interesting how some of the inland solutions are showing signs of secondary redevelopment. If that happens, I think it’s possible if not likely that the models are too warm with the surface temps, so while it wouldn’t be more snow it could lead to more sleet and freezing rain before eventually the surface warms too and it goes over to plain rain.

I know it’s a long shot with the euro being so far west, but the navy looks great for anywhere NW of the cape.

I agree. The next couple of weeks at least are great, Feb can be figured out later. Often times the pattern change gets delayed, and even if there is a warm spell it’s possible it only lasts like a week before the pattern goes back to a big ridge out west. It’s too early to give up on the next storm that the models are running inland never mind the rest of the winter.

Could it be signaling stronger secondary low development after the initial low cuts to our west?

This isn’t a great look at the moment but it’s a lot better than it looked yesterday. I see 3 lows, 1 inland low 1 to the south west and most importantly, a 996 mb low to the southeast! I don’t remember seeing that yesterday, that’s exactly what I was hoping to see, as it looks like the main low running inland is all but inevitable. In my opinion this puts even eastern areas in the game for big snows even if it does eventually change over to a mix then rain. I love seeing this, it looks like the storm is evolving into a Miller B, if we can get that southern low to strengthen faster and take over quicker, this gets really interesting. We can already see that it is snowing east of the primary in central NY. The Berkshires are way east of the main low, yet it’s still snowing. That tells me the low to the southeast is already having a major influence on the rain snow line. Whether it’s all snow, rain, or a mix, this is going to be a big storm and someone, likely NW areas and areas with elevation are going to get hammered.