George001

It appears that we got the changes we needed on the Atlantic overnight on the models, not only have they shifted to a favorable pattern but there are 2 threats, the 28th and 31st. The setup for the first threat is more marginal, but it appears that the polar vortex is displaced to the south for the second one which increases the chances for a favorable northern stream injection that phases and delivers the cold air. It also appears that there is another Miller B threat in early April when you extrapolate the most recent Canadian run. We will be fighting climo and ptype issues with any storm we get, but I am a lot more optimistic than I was yesterday due to the drastic changes we needed in the Atlantic materializing on the overnight runs.

Holy shit euro is a blizzard for next weeks storm. 1003 millibars in NE Virginia to 978 millibars right over Nantucket in just 24 hours. I can’t see the snow map or precip on tropical tidbits but looking at the upper level temps, and 500 millibar setup it screams blizzard. Thats a rain to blizzard April 1st 1997 setup on the Euro.

Over the past month the La Niña has weakened significantly and is barely even a weak La Niña now. The latest model guidance indicates it will go up to around neutral and then go back down again, possibly into another La Niña next fall and winter. A month ago they were saying strong Nina but a lot has changed since then and the updated data is saying cold neutral/borderline weak Nina. With the spring predictability barrier unless it’s an extreme event (record strong nino 2016 and record strong Nina 2011), it seems that the models tend to be all over the place which they are. The range is borderline strong nino to record strong La Niña, with most being roughly -.4 to -.6 degrees Celsius. For the outliers, 4 have moderate+ strength ninas and one has a strong nino. Based on the recent data Despite the shift towards a weaker enso event a big Nina cannot be ruled out yet. Models aside, it’s quite common for the following winter after a strong Nina to be another moderate-strong Nina. This combined with the model data would make me lean towards a second Nina but I can’t really say much about the strength yet. Being a New England snow weenie though, the only enso states with a solidly below avg snowfall signal are moderate and strong ninos, with weak ninos up to record strong ninas signaling at least average near average snowfall.

The flow is somewhat amplified during the late March storm threat, with a piece of the northern branch phasing with the southern branch to create a massive ocean low. However the setup does not look conductive for snow outside the mountains, and even there it may be too warm. The issue is the polar vortex is over Greenland and there is no cold air to be found, so in my opinion the chance of an all snow storm without ptype issues is next to none. The only way we are getting snow is if the low amplifies to a historic strength and creates its own cold air to dynamically cool the column. If this happens, it would lead to a rain to historic blizzard scenario like April 1 1997. This is extremely unlikely, as with this type of pattern there is 0 room for error. I really like the look of the pacific, but I hate the look in the Atlantic right now on the models. Based on my analysis I would say there is a 999/1000 chance that we get less than an inch of snow from this storm and a 1/1000 chance we get more than that (this is a very boom or bust setup, if everything did go right and somehow we got a 960 millibar fully phased low stalling over Nantucket, we would see feet. This is EXTREMELY unlikely and I am not calling for this). We will need major changes in the Atlantic (such as the polar vortex displaced 500 miles south of where the models currently have it) for this storm threat to even have a chance at being wintry. My current call is we do get a decent sized storm, but it’s all rain.

Denver stole them

This winter wasn’t anything special but it was way more exciting than the horrible 18-19 winter. This winter was average, 18-19 was well below with only 2 6+ storms and 1 12+ storm. That’s a ratter in my book. This winter at least in my area there were 2 12+ Storms, 3/4 6+ storms (I’m not entirely sure the October and Jan one were borderline, but The one in dec and 2 in feb were definitely 6+, with the last storm being borderline) in my area. Unlike that horrific winter this winter at least had a few smaller events on top of the couple of bigger ones (as is typical in moderate/strong la ninas) vs 2019 one bigger storm and one moderate one separated by 4 months, with not much in between. I would take this average winter again over that ratter winter and it’s not even close. We also had a much more favorable pattern this winter and if anything we underperformed the pattern with average snowfall. In my opinion 9/10 times this pattern would produce well above average snow in all of eastern mass. The 2019 pattern we never stood a chance with the storm track way to the west the whole year.

That’s gfs guidance. I don’t use the gfs at all when making my forecasts, often I won’t even look at it. I prefer a 80/20 European Canadian blend in the long range (still too far out for the Navy, that’s more of a mid range model). The European and Canadian guidance have the polar vortex parked over the North Pole. Even that if that gfs run was right the polar vortex is still parked over the North Pole in that image. When I see a polar vortex parked over the North Pole I will always go with the warmer guidance and even that might be underdone, as the pattern favors warmth. 70s would not be surprising at all, I would say based on the blend of models I look it we are likely going to see a solid week+ of 60s with a couple of days soaring well into the 70s. When there is a atmospheric driver in place like a polar vortex over the North Pole that tends to dominate the pattern, an ensemble mean will smooth that out in the long range and as we approach the target time period will likely correct warmer.

Eh the model guidance has the polar vortex over the North Pole with above average temps during that time frame. If anything that favors 70s like we had earlier in the month.

It seems like at least until a few years ago we typically would get at least one at least every other year. In our best years we get 3 or 4 big ones (2011, 2015, ect). We have had one big one in the past 5 years (March 2018) and along with that we have had 5 consecutive winters with above average temps. 70s in winter used to be very rare but it seems we have a 70 or two in mid winter all the time now. That seems more like climate change than regression to the mean. It makes sense, the warmer the temps get the more difficult it is to get big snows.

A lot of this Hadley cell stuff is over my head right now (I plan on doing some reading to learn more about it) but I agree with the general idea that climate change is having a big impact on our winters. I have noticed that it seems harder to get a big slow moving east coast blizzard in recent years than it used to, fast flows have been dominating and storms just don’t seem to want to phase. I don’t really buy the whole “regression to the mean” thing when it comes to our recent winters, I see it as more of a combination of lag effect from the super nino in 2016 and climate change moving us to a less favorable base state.

Yeah October snow doesn’t really mean anything about the following winter. With March being a bust it will end up right around average where I live. Not really anything special but not a garbage winter like the last 2 either.

I left the door open for maybe a 5% chance at a monster ocean low if the storm fully phased but yeah without a phase we weren’t getting those warning amounts. The snow maps are garbage, the setup was always marginal and even if we got a late partial phase even the more aggressive models didn’t favor anything more than 2-4/3-6 (those 6+ amounts were bullshit due to marginal temps holding down ratios). Even I had (relatively) low expectations for this storm, which is not a good sign if your looking for a big storm, as im not exactly known as a conservative forecaster. I still busted high as many areas including mine didn’t get a flake, but at least in the short range this was one of my better forecasts. No phasing+marginal temps in late March screams lean low on snowfall amounts.

Fishing season too. Spring fishing is really good now I went fishing with my friend and we caught 6 trout.

The models never really showed anything more than a couple slushy inches (ignoring the 10:1 snow maps). There was a very low probability potential for a big snowstorm if there was a major shift west in the northern stream, and instead it shifted east so it’s just a rainstorm.

Northern stream is not phasing but it looks close to me on the models. As is, I wouldn’t expect more than a slushy inch or two but this has a lot of upside if it moves toward a phase.

Based on what I see on the models today they are close but not quite there when it comes to phasing. This could very well phase and produce a monster ocean low if it keeps trending, but there isn’t a whole lot of time. Instead it looks like the streams will phase a little bit over western NY (a bit better than yesterday’s models having the northern steam diving into central NY, which would allow the low to strengthen a little more). The setup is quite marginal with there not being a strong cold air mass in place, which explains why the models have the storm starting as rain. As it is right now, I’m not really buying the 6-12 snow maps as the low is not strong enough to create its enough cold air to dynamically cool the atmosphere and increase the snow ratios, so the 6-12 inch snow maps would translate to 2-4 inches of wet snow. If we can get that northern stream to dive 200 miles west however it’s a whole nother story.

Yep that’s what I’m seeing too on the models for the end of the month. Well above average temps with an 80 degree day not out of the question. After this next storm threat Friday we are likely done with snow threats.

Another important thing to note is as things are right now the snow maps are likely inflated as the setup is marginal, so ratios would be less than 10:1. Also some precip would be wasted as rain early in the storm. 3-6+ isn’t happening in my opinion unless we get an earlier phase, which is what I am watching for.

I’m not expecting much out of this storm due to the northern stream phasing in so late and the overall progressive nature of the pattern, but I have to admit the models did get a bit more interesting. The Euro in particular moved the northern stream a couple hundred miles west. If we are looking for a big storm that northern stream needs to drop in about 3-400 miles west of where the euro currently has it. This is very unlikely and is not supported by the pattern, but it needs to be watched. I do believe that the shift on today’s models has drastically increased the ceiling of the storm from a couple of inches of slop to a massive slow moving ocean low. More likely, there will be a late phase which may allow for some precip to back into eastern mass but not more than a couple of inches. I would give the probability of a phased slow moving monster ocean low around 5%, which is quite low but better than what I thought the ceiling was yesterday.

even I gave up on winter. I still check the models occasionally just in case if an early April blizzard pops up, but at this point I would give that a less than 1% chance of happening. The storm threat next week is going to bust because there is no northern stream interaction or phasing. The low will be weak and there will be no mechanism to create cold air. No phasing means there is 0 chance for a big early spring blizzard.

The navy has a big snowstorm for our storm threat next week

The euro isn’t looking good for my forecast right now but unfortunately at this point i agree with you. It might be time for me to give up on that storm and the winter. Not going to completely rule out the possibly for a late season storm, but based on the latest model guidance we are more than likely done. The storm track will likely be to the west of us, and the above normal temps appear to remain though the rest of March. I’m still going to be tracking until mid April though like I always do because I’m a weenie and if I think there is even a .00000001% chance of seeing a snowstorm I track. The models did look favorable for one or two late season blizzards a few days ago but things changed. The polar vortex is literally over the North Pole right now and that type of pattern has a tendency to lock in for a long time, so it’s likely the models rushed the pattern change.

Got up to 72 degrees in my backyard today. That is about average... for early June lol

That’s not true. The Canadian and navy have a Miller b during the target period (18th-22nd). Euro has a low but is warm due to lack of northern stream interaction. Gfs has a low in Wisconsin but it’s a useless model that is almost always wrong. The Canadian especially is very close to a big storm. The 14th-16th one is done though, that never really had model support to begin with outside one Gfs run.

The Canadian looks great for the big storm on the 20th. A bit warm due to the northern stream being a bit late (also it’s late March so temp issues are going to be hard to avoid), but what’s important is the setup is great and all the ingredients are there for a massive ocean low coming up the coast. I think it has the right idea, this needs to be watched for all of New England with the best chances being in central to northern New England. I’m convinced NNE and CNE is getting hammered by this. SE MA is more borderline in this setup and need more to go right for big snows, but even right down to the cape and islands is in the threat area when it comes to big snow, though the probability is lower due to us likely wasting some QPF as rain to start.