George001

I don’t believe in these weak progressive solutions at all, not with the North Atlantic blocking in place. The low is going to deepen a lot more than expected, and someone is going to get over a foot.

Correct me if I am mistaken but aren’t the solutions that we have seen over the past couple days purely northern stream driven, with the southern energy lagging behind too far for it to get involved? I feel like the most recent runs have moved closer to getting that involved. Ptype would be a risk, but if we can get that northern branch to dig a little more, slow down a bit while the southern energy ejects faster, would that increase the ceiling? I would think if that happens we see a deeper, slower moving low with more precip, wind, and maybe even the possibility the the low creates it’s own cold air via dynamical cooling.

You aren’t out of it yet, if things break right it’s possible even your area gets a foot.

Id like to see the southern energy speed up and the northern stream dig a little more, the way things look right now on the Euro and Canadian guidance, it has 6-12 potential in the jackpot area. However that would be a fairly narrow area, for a bigger storm we need more phasing.

Yeah ptype issues are likely somewhere considering it’s still late November, I am more worried about that than suppression.

Yeah you are probably right, ideal would probably be the entire evolution happening about 100-200 miles south and a partial but not full phase.

Need that northern branch to dig a little more for us closer to the coast. Not a bad run though this far out.

Does anyone have the snow maps for the ukie? That looks like roughly an inch of liquid in the Boston area on that frame alone, with 1.75 inches just to the south. Boston is west of the freezing line too, looks like the rain snow line would be somewhere over the outer cape on that run. That’s all snow in Boston….

I am no gfs believer but the UKMET is pretty good, and European as well as Canadian while they miss, they are close and have a low. That ridge being so far west is a massive red flag for me that the out to sea solutions are incorrect, and the low will trend north and west. I love this setup for eastern mass, La Niña induced (yes that same La Niña that some panicked about potentially ruining winter) northern branch digging south, North Atlantic blocking and a western ridge centered over Washington. Climo isn’t the most favorable being late November, but with a setup this good it can work. We have snowed earlier than this in worse setups, big difference between late November and late October/early November climo wise.

HOLY SHIT THATS A FULL BLOWN BLIZZARD!!!!!

We don’t need a -EPO for big nor’easter. There is North Atlantic blocking in place, and the western ridge is centered over WASHINGTON. That tells me that the pattern does not favor these out to sea solutions. There is plenty of room for the northern branch to dig farther south, leading to more amplification, redevelopment of the Miller B farther south, a stronger storm at peak, and a slower moving storm.

I made a big mistake, I looked at the polar vortex forecast and panicked because I saw that it was expected to deepen, but didn’t really dig into the details enough.

GFS is garbage, I don’t even use it for my forecasts. What has me on board for a big storm with the potential to become a slow moving Miller B blizzard in eastern mass next week is what the European and Canadian guidance did. The northern stream dug farther south, and the pattern as a whole trended to becoming more amplified on the recent guidance. The western ridge is over Washington on these recent model runs, if anything that’s a bit west of ideal. Yet the models are still booting the low out to sea. I am of the belief that this is an error, and the models will correct more amplified with the low due to the 500 mb pattern being modeled. There is blocking in place as well, which ups the ceiling if things do break right.

I do think 4-8 is a decent first call but I believe areas closer to the coast have a chance to really get hammered here. With the cold air in place (850mb 0 line as far south as DC 12-24 hours before the storm), and North Atlantic blocking to force the low to redevelop south, I do not believe temps will be a huge issue. If the northern branch digs just a little more I could see this quickly turning into a 12-18 type deal with an iso 24 possible in eastern mass, with blizzard conditions due to the rapid deepening of the low. In miller Bs eastern mass and downeast Maine tend to do really well. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, right now I’m leaning 6-12 in eastern mass, 3-6 central and western SNE. I really like what I see pattern wise, and with the model trends today I am now going to go big. I know it hasn’t been discussed yet, but the way things are going I do think a blizzard is on the table here, and the chances for one is higher than many would think for this time of year.

That smaller cluster south of Long Island has my attention, if we see models start trending towards that things will get very interesting quickly…

That western ridge is pretty far west, there is some blocking in place, and there is plenty of cold air. On the Euro, the ridge is a bit too flat and positively tilted, but with the North Atlantic blocking in place I do believe that it is likely the models are too progressive with the pattern. Due to the North Atlantic blocking in place, I expect the models to trend more amplified overall. The western ridge has plenty of room to trend more neutral tilted and amplified, which would allow the northern stream to dig more. If that happens and it digs far enough south to phase with southern energy, this storm could turn into a big slow moving Miller B nor’easter.

A step in the right direction on the Euro, still a bit too offshore for the big snows but I like what I see.

When there is a Miller B that has been showing up off and on on the European and Canadian guidance, that’s worth keeping an eye on. Miller Bs are usually very tough to forecast due to minor changes with the northern stream energy thousands of miles away right now resulting in big shifts on the models with the storm. It isn’t super high probability, but if it does hit this would be the type of storm to pop up out of nowhere.

That looks a lot better than I expected looking at the polar vortex strength forecast. It isn’t weak, and while it’s centered over the North Pole I like how it’s displaced to the south a bit like you mentioned. I’m hoping this is right and we have a decent pattern for December, and then later in the winter when the polar vortex weakens, it is in a good position to be displaced into the eastern half of the country. That would turn the pattern from good to epic.

I took a look at the recent model guidance and it is now deepening the polar vortex into late December. That is concerning for early winter, however we have seen positive signs with the La Niña, enso 3.4, 3, and 1.2 are now -1 or below, while enso 4 is -.7. The models also have the MJO going into phase 7, if we get an MJO wave into 7,8 and then 1 that will be very good for us. With the latest guidance I am less optimistic about December, but more optimistic about late Jan to March. The La Niña moved east based mid November, so assuming a 2-3 month lag that would mean we start reaping the benefits sometime in the late Jan timeframe until the end of winter. However due to the delayed polar vortex weakening and the the lag effect with the MJO, my optimism for December has declined. I would not be surprised to see us average 3-4 degrees above normal with little to no snow for the entire month of December (I hope I’m wrong, but it’s not looking good right now with the latest polar vortex trends). The polar vortex right now is consolidated over the North Pole, and that’s just not going to cut it. I like our chances better the second half of winter, when the signs are that the polar vortex will drastically weaken, and the east based La Niña pattern will take over. This should not only result in an increased chance of North Atlantic blocking late Jan to March, but it should also lead to less troughing out west. As a weenie it is quite demoralizing seeing the long range models forecasting a massive trough out west in early December, but I believe in the process. Our best winter months are January and February, so the silver lining here is we are really wasting shit climo with the strong polar vortex pattern currently in place. In 2-3 weeks, this winter will show its hand. If it’s going to suck, the polar vortex disruption will be delayed even more on the models, and they will show it deepening in January. On the other hand, if this is going to be a big winter, the signs for a major polar vortex displacement or split in early to mid January will only strengthen. the path to a big winter (>75 inches in the Boston area) is still there, luck out and run into a nice storm or 2 in a bad pattern during December, then get hammered late Jan to early March. It’s a different path than I originally thought (I thought Feb would suck early on and Dec would be decent, now I have flipped), but it still exists. If anything the ceiling is higher since we are wasting Dec (shit climo 1st half especially) instead of Feb (peak climo).

Even if December does suck I’m not giving up on winter. If the polar vortex is showing no signs of weakening and things suck to late Jan then it’s a different story.

The Euro, Canadian, and Navy show a storm threat (though none are big hits), the gfs doesnt have a low. Gfs is garbage, it’s probably wrong. It may not snow, it is November after all so a lot of things have to go right, but I do expect there to at least be a storm.

The Canadian is really close as well, if the northern branch digs just a little more it would have likely phased with the southern branch. We need the blocking to strengthen a bit, if it does this storm has a lot of potential.

To my untrained eyes that looks like a Miller B to me. Is that correct or am I mistaken?

The La Niña strength is indeed similar to 2011-2012, but that doesn’t mean the weather will be anything like it. The 1995-1996 La Niña was of similar strength as well. Unlike the 2011-2012 winter this La Niña is more east based, where as the 2011-2012 was west based. In my opinion this winter will be closer to 1995-1996 than 2011-2012. The polar vortex isn’t weak right now, but it is expected to weaken soon, where as it was rapidly deepening in 2011-2012.