Disclaimer- the following is an amateurs analysis of the upcoming pattern in March. I am trying to learn more so I welcome all constructive criticism, as it will help me make better forecasts. My goal is to learn enough to make winter forecasts like some of the more experienced members of the board.
This winter has been pretty good for me in the foxborough area so far, much better than most winter forecasts predicted. I have been following the long range forecasts and it appears the polar vortex is expected to re consolidate, now the question that will determine whether winter ends or we get another 4-6 weeks or so (prob closer to 4 but late March even can’t be ruled out), is where will the polar vortex go when it re strengthens? If it ends up over central to western Canada like some of the models are showing we will probably have more snow threats but since that is more west we will likely be fighting ptype issues, as is typical in March. If it goes over the North Pole winter is likely over and we will see record warmth. If it goes farther south in southern central Canada we could see multiple blizzards with record breaking cold and the potential for the Boston area to double its yearly avg snowfall. Based on my analysis of both the models and the current pattern drivers, I am of the belief that we will indeed see 4-6 more weeks of winter with multiple Miller Bs delivering several feet of snow to Eastern Mass. I don’t buy the early spring calls, while we had a rough stretch between the December storm and late jan, it appears that the strong La Niña in place has taken over and is now dominating the pattern. We had a record warm pacific in the early part of winter, but the strong La Niña has done its work to cool the pacific down and allow Canadian air masses to spread farther south and east since there isn’t as much mild pacific air to modify them anymore, which led to our storm threats this week and the historic ice storm in the Deep South. That La Niña hasn’t gone anywhere, and will continue to influence our pattern in March. With the pacific now having been cooled down by our La Niña, combined with the seasonal transition that occurs during March, I see a month with wild temp swings, a battle between an anomalously strong ridge in the southeast and equally anomalous frigid air straight from the North Pole spilling into the northern tier of the country. This extreme contrast in temperatures should create a boundary where storms will form, and it will help juice them up. Due to the southeast ridge in place these storms aren’t going out to sea. In fact I am of the belief that storms will initially try to cut to Ohio, but will run into a brick wall in the form of a frigid, snowpack enhanced arctic airmass and will then reform to the south, rapidly gaining strength due to the southeast ridge enhanced warm waters, coming up the coast and throwing record breaking amounts of moisture into a frigid arctic airmass sitting over New England. This is a Miller b pattern that I believe we will see quite often in March, with a perfect storm of seasonal transition, La Niña, and climate change enhanced thermal gradient allowing lows to rapidly deepen to the 950s and even 940s, hurricane force lows bringing extreme wind to Eastern Mass and several feet of snow PER STORM. These Miller bs will bring blizzard conditions to the Boston area while DC is raining. I do not expect the deep snowpack to last long, with some days having the warm air winning the battle bringing us into the 60s and 70s, with several of these days especially in the latter half of March being sandwiched between historic Miller B blizzards with temps in the teens. When all is said and done, I predict 80-90 inches of snow for the year in the Boston Area.
what do you guys think about the rest of winter and my analysis? I haven’t been this excited about a winter stretch since March 2018, and before that Feb 2015.
