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About OHweather

  • Birthday 09/01/1992

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Hackettstown, NJ

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  1. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    I'm not really a big fan of accumulations Saturday night into Sunday in NE OH right now...850mb temps are close to supportive and we've had accumulating snow with similar 925mb and 850mb temps before in October, but the lake is unusually warm and it will be a short-fetch event by the time temps get cold enough to start mixing with snow, which will limit band intensity and blow lake-modified air well inland. It should still be an interesting time Saturday afternoon and evening as explosive instability develops over the lake thanks to 500mb temps of -30 to -32C moving over 16 to 18C waters...there will be a very strong vort and surface trough moving by Saturday late afternoon/early evening with that extremely instability in place with winds shifting from WSW to NNW...there will likely be an organized shore-parallel band that develops and quickly swings south through much of the Snowbelt and the Cleveland area. Surface temps will be in the low 50s when that happens so the p-type will be "rain," but with unusually strong instability over the lake and low freezing levels there will likely be an abundance of small hail/graupel with that activity. Any stronger cells could probably get close to producing severe criteria hail near the lakeshore given over 1500 J/KG of lake-induced CAPE with a conservative water temp in BUFKIT. Also could be stronger than normal waterspouts over the lake along the surface trough. As exciting as that is it isn't really snow...the inversion height gradually lowers Saturday evening as we lose the synoptic support with winds becoming well-aligned out of the NNW. Many areas will turn dry but two or three bands will likely occur downwind of the lake between Sandusky and SW NY. It will probably take until at least midnight for the bands to change to all snow even inland...they'll still be fairly intense for a few hours at that point and could be moderate until early Sunday, but again they're multi-bands and likely won't firehose anyone spot and surface temps will be marginal. If any stronger band impacts the higher terrain just right a localized light accumulation could occur, but I think that'll be the exception. Still, fairly fun for the middle of October.
  2. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Yeah -6 to -8C would do the trick with an organized band...some runs have shown that, some haven’t, but can’t totally rule it out. As is usually the case with any early events instability won’t be in short supply.
  3. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    I won’t be in Ohio often, but will be next weekend...in Athens Friday/Saturday and in NE Ohio on Sunday. The models have been consistently showing a strong enough cold shot to get some lake effect/instability showers mixed with graupel or wet snow on Sunday...a little ways out from locking it in but the potential for some non-accumulating wintry precip on Sunday seems legitimate and I am rooting it on, since it may be a little longer before I see it out here.
  4. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    20% POPs were ok the last two days IMO...mayybe could've gone 30 or 40% in the Snowbelt where the combination of the lake breeze and terrain can help spark a few more storms, but the areal coverage everywhere except for the Snowbelt was very low. Today's cell ended up being relatively impressive and was slow moving over the eastern suburbs into Geauga, though it really was just the one big cell in that area. Flood advisories and warnings are tough...it is pretty pointless when they throw them up as the rain is ending which happens more than it should, but you also don't want to issue them and have nothing happen. Some minor poor-drainage flooding is not worthy of an advisory, but if you have enough that you have 6" or 12" of standing water on more than a couple of roads it needs something. Not sure how bad today's was in your area. When I'm contacting our clients for flood-related concerns it's really a fine balancing act between getting ahold of them after flooding is already ongoing and doing it too early when there's a high bust potential...unless it's nearly a slam dunk (solid area of slow-moving very heavy rain moving over a sensitive area) they're going to get some rain before they get contacted, although I try my hardest to do it somewhat before they hit whatever threshold I determine that I think they'll start flooding at. The NWS is issuing for a totally different audience but does ultimately have similar concerns when issuing products like that. 1.13" isn't a minor amount, but unless the ground is already saturated with streams and creeks near bankful it is hard to get substantial flooding with that amount in an area like Chagrin that's not extremely urban.
  5. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Thanks! The downside to this field definitely is way more grads than jobs and a fairly high likelihood of having to move off the bat. Ohio is not rich in met jobs...two NWS offices that you likely won’t get into without a masters or years of experience, and AEP which is almost the same thing. I don’t count broadcast jobs because that’s a whole other beast that I had no interest in touching. I’ll certainly try to peak in this winter. I won’t work 168 hours a week, hopefully.
  6. OHweather

    2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    Yeah, that IN cell had impressive hail for a while but was mainly over open farmland before it got close to Greensburg. It was probably producing severe hail as far west as northern Shelby County and the signature was most impressive near or just before the time of those pictures.
  7. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Wonder if that was the waterspout reported off of Willowick around noon that day...always a fun METAR. Anyways, it just dawned on me with the lake effect showers and waterspouts this week that as we approach September, lake effect season is just about upon us (of course, it'll be rain for the next several weeks if there is any). With moving to Jersey and starting the job in July this summer has flown by for me. Luckily most of the East Coast doesn't really get wintry threats quite as early as the Great Lakes can.
  8. I’d be pretty surprised if that didn’t produce a tornado. Rather unexpected too, but enough of a low level jet to do it.
  9. OHweather

    2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    A little surprised on that as there was very tight rotation on the TDAY radar at a low elevation on that cell ILN warned...also some pics of a funnel very close to the ground...but perhaps it was in a rural enough area that nothing was damaged or it somehow was just barely not on the ground. Wow, pretty close video. CLE also confirmed an EF-0 in Lucas County, OH.
  10. Pretty meh radar so far. Parameters are in place in central NJ but just no decent storms yet. We'll see if it picks up at all the rest of this morning. If not it'll just be a disgustingly humid day.
  11. OHweather

    2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    I'm curious to see how many EF-0 (or maybe 1) tornadoes get confirmed in the Toledo and Detroit area. Not sure I've quite seen anything like that on radar last night. There was extremely weak instability, and low-level shear honestly wasn't great, but there was a ton of vorticity as that cell was pretty much riding the low pressure, so probably some vorticity stretching...but that whole storm was broadly rotating with small, generally brief, but at times strong enough to possibly produce rotations continuously showing up on the TDTW terminal radar with the cell.
  12. Yeah I’m impressed with the soundings. And when you have a strong low-level shear (this could be stronger but it’s enough) and low LCL combo it definitely doesn’t take a ton to get a tornado. Just need to get surface based storms...which we should get but the instability may be a little slower to come up than what the HRRR shows.
  13. Kind of an interesting day Wednesday... We'll likely get the standard warm advection storms late tonight into the morning. The activity late tonight will initially be a little bit elevated, but by morning we'll quickly erode the low-level CINH and develop some surface-based instability. There may be a narrow window for surface-based storms across central and eventually northern NJ/NYC/extreme southern NY between like 7am-12pm (moving south to north). Low LCLs, 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, and 100-200 m2/s2 effective SRH will be supportive of rotating storms and perhaps a marginal tornado risk. Most of the Northeast tornadoes seem to be surprise stuff with marginal parameters in the morning, so something is possible. The HRRR solution is slower in lifting those storms north and likely allows them to become surface based across N NJ/towards NYC...the best shot of WAA is a little earlier, so not sure they're quite that slow...but if they are, I do think they'd be supercells with some sort of tornado risk by late morning/early afternoon. There should be a window in the early to mid-afternoon of some heating, and with a ton of low-level moisture, it won't take a whole lot of heating to get 1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE. The CAPE profiles look tall and skinny thanks to atrociously weak lapse rates, but that should still be enough for some decent storms during the late-afternoon and evening. With 30-40 knots of bulk shear and over 100 m2/s2 of effective SRH still through the evening...perhaps even ramping up a bit during the evening as the LLJ ramps up a bit...shear is certainly supportive for anything to be organized and possibly rotating during the late-afternoon and evening. There's no real cap or anything, but forcing also looks pretty weak this far east. Best chances may be from extreme NW NJ (and possibly a little farther west of that) into southern NY in the evening, though if anything were to develop farther east there'd be some sort of gusty wind/weak tornado risk. If the morning activity leaves any sort of boundary that could perhaps be some sort of focus farther east. I tend to agree with the slight risk being a bit northwest of the bulk of this region...though the morning stuff will definitely have to be watched, with sufficient low-level helicity and low LCLs, it won't take much for a weak tornado with any surface-based storms. The evening stuff I'm more meh on, but I'd rather be in NW NJ than closer to NYC.
  14. The severe threat for Friday afternoon/evening is certainly interesting, though it's likely that a modest onshore component to the low-level wind and somewhat later timing causes a lower threat near the coast, particularly south of NYC... There will probably be some high clouds overspreading the region during the morning, but a period of decent heating looks likely. Though not as moist as earlier in the week, there's still respectable low-level moisture in the lowest several thousand feet...which should allow dew points to stay in the upper 60s on Friday even with strong daytime heating causing good mixing. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit how unstable it will get to an extent, though with rich-enough low-level moisture and strong heating the potential will exist for 1500-2500 J/KG of MLCAPE to develop by the afternoon...which is plenty. A mid to upper jet will move overhead during the afternoon, increasing bulk shear. Effective bulk shear of 30-40kt is expected to be in place Friday afternoon and evening. This is plenty of speed shear. The low-level flow is on the weaker side, which will probably keep the tornado threat fairly low despite good turning of the winds with height...though, any storms with a more deviate motion (right turners) could locally increase their storm-relative helicity (SRH) some...and locally increased wind fields near storms may also do that. Given the deep-layer shear will be decently strong and the low-levels look to have good turning, I don't want to say something weird that results in a tornado is impossible, but the weak low-level flow should keep the threat fairly low. For when/where storms fire and the mode of the storms...a weak boundary remains just inland from the coast right now, and the WPC and some models appear to keep that in place...perhaps getting re-enforced by a sea breeze by early to mid-afternoon. The airmass really isn't capped, so once we get good heating by early afternoon convective temps will be reached. Broad large-scale ascent overspreads the region by early afternoon as we get under the right-entrance quadrant of the jet stream to our north. There also appears to be an area of modest vorticity over the Ohio Valley right now that would glance the region early to mid-afternoon. Given this, suspect isolated to widely scattered storms fire early to at the absolute latest the middle of the afternoon. Likely initially focused on that lingering boundary, perhaps just inland from the coast in NJ to just north of NYC. Suspect due to the lack of a cap, the fairly sharp nature of the front, and broad large-scale ascent that the storms along the front will organize into a line over eastern PA and move east on the quicker side of modeling during the late afternoon or early evening...perhaps reaching NYC by 7-9PM. Due to some potential overturning from pre-frontal convection and a weak onshore flow and starting to lose daytime heating, the frontal storms will probably start to weaken at some point as they move east across NJ/southern NY during the early evening. Given moderate CAPE and deep-layer shear, the initial cellular activity may have some supercellular characteristics. Again, suspect most won't tighten up enough to produce a tornado, but can imagine a scenario where it happens with one storm or something. Main concern would be a hail risk and damaging downburst winds with any cells during the afternoon. The amount of instability could be enough for some larger than normal hail...supported by Craven-Brooks numbers perhaps pushing 30,000-40,000...though, with weak mid-level lapse rates and warm/humid low-levels, both negatives for very large hail, am not positive on that threat. Suspect any initial cells would have a hail threat, but that it may struggle to exceed quarter-sized. If a cell or two really went to town, could see larger with them for a time. Moderate DCAPE of 700-1000 J/KG due to some mid-level dry air would also support damaging downburst winds with stronger cells. The line that I think will move in from the west could have a decent damaging wind risk, though again, suspect that'll start to peter out gradually as it moves east during the early evening, so not sure how much of that threat would make it to the coast, especially south of NYC. Would personally go 30% wind/15% hail/2% tornado risks, highest from the Hudson Valley (perhaps extreme western MA) down through eastern PA/western NJ, dropping off to a slight risk down towards DC due to somewhat weaker shear/forcing farther south...and also dropping off to the east towards the NJ coast as mentioned.
  15. There should be some enhanced chances for showers/thunder with locally heavy rain tonight into tomorrow morning as the moisture plume evident over the Atlantic towards eastern Long Island and New England backs west. Should see the lift from the low to mid-level moisture and warm advection along with the right-entrance quad of the upper-level jet help spark scattered convection in the humid and fairly unstable airmass at times through Monday before the core of the moisture axis and better jet support shift a little west. Still could be spotty showers/thunder thereafter through Tuesday, but heaviest stuff should be to our west (maybe clipping NW NJ). This could end up being pretty bad just to our west in PA where they got more rain last night and will be in a pattern supportive of numerous storms with heavy rain rates through Wednesday. The moisture axis shifts back east for Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday which should cause our chances for storms with locally heavy rain to ramp back up.