• Content Count

  • Joined


About OHweather

  • Birthday 09/01/1992

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Hackettstown, NJ

Recent Profile Visitors

2,599 profile views
  1. It's overall a fairly usable model, I just haven't been able to trust it as much with convection...it did quite well here though, and did quite well in OH/PA last Saturday when many of the traditional CAMs said they'd stay dry in the warm sector during the afternoon and they didn't.
  2. The HRRR and RGEM will take the wins any way they can get them with convection.
  3. Heh, for once the morning convection didn't do anything it wasn't supposed to do... Definitely a few question marks remaining... Not sure on if there's initiation in time for N IL or not...the HRRR barely breaks the cap, the NAM doesn't but is close, most of the CAMs just start developing storms over NE IL before they move ESE. The frontal circulation itself should intensify a bit soon as it pushes into an area that's seen better heating over IL/SE WI, and the ascent ahead of the mid-level impulse just begins overspreading the front before it clears NE IL. I think a storm or two likely develops over N IL (like, 60/40 for one or two cells)...not really a tornado risk, but could be supercellular with a hail risk. It's a highly conditional, but perhaps locally significant hail threat. It seems that last night's models that insisted on initiation over the southern Great Lakes were on the right track, and the lack of unexpected ongoing convection certainly adds confidence in sufficient destabilization through the rest of the afternoon into the evening ahead of the cold front. The low-level flow begins to accelerate this evening, though aside from perhaps local turning ahead of the weak surface low over parts of southern MI and perhaps immediately adjacent NW OH, remains fairly veered with marginal helicity. That said, there may be enough of a combination of low LCLs and SRH in that vicinity, assuming the winds do back a bit, for a short-duration tornado risk. I can't really argue with the 5% risk as it's placed. The hail risk is fairly straight-forward initially, as the speed shear will favor mid-level updraft rotation in an environment with very steep mid-level lapse rates and fairly low wet bulb zeroes. Any discrete or semi-discrete cells will be prone to severe hail, with over 2" quite possible with any supercells. The only question is, how quickly does upscale growth occur as activity starts spreading E/SE across northern and central IN and into much of OH? This will determine when we go from an impressive hail risk to more of a wind risk. The front gradually becomes sharper this evening as the low intensifies and the front surges southeast, which favors upscale growth...and there is some large-scale ascent as the mid-level impulse/speed-max moves overhead. However, with some capping and shear vectors somewhat orthogonal to the front, it may not be immediate. While most CAMs generally show fast upscale growth, not all do immediately (in particular, the HRRR and NSSL WRF look somewhat cellular longer). There will undoubtedly be gradual upscale growth and a transition from a primarily hail threat to more of a damaging wind risk, but whether it takes a couple of hours or a few hours I'm not quite sure. I'm still curious to see if the relatively stable low-levels temper the wind risk at all. The EML will promote strong downdrafts, and upscale growth would likely result in enough clustering of those downdrafts to punch through the inversion, but most models do maintain at least some inversion tonight beneath the EML over IN/OH...especially farther NE where the surface is cooler. I'm sure an organized bowing segment would punch through it, but widespread damaging winds may be asking a lot otherwise. Definitely will be interesting to watch play out and I think the SPC outlook is fair as it is given some of the remaining uncertainty, but also the parameters that are in place.
  4. Re: The Ohio afternoon stuff...can definitely see it as even the NAM soundings don't immediately build the capping inversion in this afternoon, and have a period of relatively uncapped CAPE. Could definitely see a that boundary occurring due to clouds/rain to the east and sun/warmth to the south resulting in differential heating...but, with the only source of lift being that boundary and the window for this to occur being somewhat brief before the capping inversion does spread east, think it's only a couple of storms that go with a short window to do anything. Storms would be supercellular given the shear so I could definitely see a large hail threat, but with a weak low-level flow and fairly short window think any tornado threat is still pretty low (but non-zero).
  5. Coming up on midnight the night before, the road is certainly narrow at this point. It’s an infuriating decision, and sort of goes against all of the stay at home orders and business closures that have had such a profound impact already (on the spread, our daily lives and the economy)
  6. There’s fairly remarkable agreement on convection initiating around 0z or so somewhere over southern MI/central or southern IL/IN/OH, growing upscale and then moving SE. How the morning convection plays out will contribute some to how far N the warm front gets into southern MI/northern OH, although with the EML advecting in I don’t think getting CAPE will be the issue...but how stable the low levels remain could be a limiting factor with northern/eastern extent. I don’t think there’s great tornado potential with a fairly weak and veered surface flow, along with good agreement on upscale growth happening fairly quickly as a shortwave approaches and encourages large-scale ascent Tuesday night...but initial cells could definitely produce hail given the EML/bulk shear, and assuming the low levels aren’t too stable there would certainly be a damaging wind risk too. Despite the EML, I think the quick upscale growth may limit the potential for more than a “slight risk” for hail (though any initial cells with mid-level rotation could produce some very large hail briefly before upscale growth occurs)...if there’s agreement on the location of an evening MCS and the low levels aren’t too stable (model soundings weaken the inversion at the base of the EML somewhat along the front in the evening as the large scale ascent improves ahead of the shortwave) I could see how the wind threat justifies a 30% somewhere, though I sort of doubt we see it out of the gate at 6z. It’s sort of an interesting setup, definitely some uncertainty so will be curious to see what can happen. We’ve gotten a couple of nice EML’s just over a week apart which is cool.
  7. In Ohio a court rejected a lawsuit to push back the election, and the director of public health then issued an order that superseded that. Wonder if WI could do the same? That would be a fascinating legal exercise. It’d also help slow the spread, get out of this sooner and save lives, which this decision seems to ignore completely.
  8. Looking at the dates the states in the Great Lakes took certain actions shows how behind states here were by comparison. NY and NJ shut bars, schools, and banned large gatherings around the same time the Great Lakes states did (and had orders of magnitude more cases when they did, at least in NY)...I think our stay at home order in NJ came on the 21st, so slightly earlier.
  9. I'm not going to be sold on this going high risk until the ongoing convection is worked out. When does the ongoing elevated convection north of the warm front clear out quickly when it's on the edge of an EML and has a LLJ feeding into it? The HRRR does this and overplays the later-day threat often and there's enough uncertainty on the various CAMs WRT how the ongoing elevated convection plays out and the subsequent impact on the main threat in the afternoon to cast doubt on the HRRR. The parameter space has the potential to be high end, and if the ongoing stuff moves out and that's realized the shear vectors somewhat orthogonal to the front and fast storm motion will keep activity semi-discrete for a while...that would support a higher-end tornado threat. But they shouldn't/likely won't go high risk out of the gate at 6z.
  10. Not even breaking 6” in Chesterland with a 2-2.5 day W-WNW flow event is impressively bad. Drove in on 80 last night and we actually have like 0.3” where I am in Macedonia...which is relatively exciting because in February I saw 1” on 2/2 and a debatable 0.1” on 2/7 and...that’s it! Our seasonal total where I am in NW NJ is about 11”...I’m not used to their boom or bust snow climo yet for sure, and last year was mediocre as we barely squeaked out 20” (but had enough cool events that it “sufficed”)
  11. Hopefully that 8" report in Solon means you guys all did well overnight.
  12. This has honestly been a boring event to watch from the sidelines for the most part as it just slowly adds up...hopefully the ratios and moisture do the work tonight with WNW/NW winds favoring more widespread snow shifting inland.
  13. Yeah totally agree with you about the time of year limiting organization during the day. The winds have a southerly component at MFD, CAK and YNG and have been W or WNW along the lake all day. Winds have recently gone WSW at Akron and Ravenna and are more W along the lake, so we may be seeing that trough that's been inland either weaken or shift closer to the lake. You are right that the troughs hug the lakeshore more when the temperature difference between the lake and air is greater. I feel pretty good about a band getting going later tonight east of Cleveland once we lose the diurnal influence and as the surface trough to the south either weakens or more definitively shifts north ahead of the second vort max that moves through early tomorrow...we'll see how far north that band ends up, and we'll see if we can get any organization over the next few hours before the first vort max moves through...that's where my skepticism/uncertainty is this evening. I think the best snow of the event may ultimately be tomorrow night into early Saturday with the better synoptic support and more WNW flow, making it more widespread too. The winds also weaken to more normal levels tomorrow through Saturday which will help any LES in that period. Edit: Will tack on what I posted on FB this afternoon...still mainly on track overall after last night/this morning, just removing the snow that fell last night from the board.
  14. The band of "better" snow showers running through Huron, Lorain, Medina, Summit, Portage and Mahoning Counties will be a wild card this evening. It appears to be associated with a weak surface trough and is connected to Lake Michigan. I'm worried that if it stays south this evening that it limits any organization of snow showers of the primary snowbelt in NE OH and NW PA, especially with strong winds also making it harder for bands to organize. It's currently lifting north, slowly, and winds go a little more WSW the next few hours, but then gain a slight northerly component later this evening as the first vort max moves through. Whether or not that band lifts north into the Snowbelt will determine how this evening goes...usually with a W or even WSW wind would expect the surface trough to end up near the lake, but it's starting pretty far south. Based on the intensity of the snow showers the thermodynamic environment is sufficient for heavy snow if a band organizes, but we need a band to organize to see that. Later tonight the winds do gain more of a southerly component which should push the surface trough north into the primary Snowbelt by morning, so I think either way we see a band flare up east of Cleveland late tonight into Friday morning that's moderate to heavy, but whether or not there's substantial snow this evening is sort of in question. The setup still looks good for Friday evening through Saturday morning, with deeper moisture and good synoptic support likely making that less touchy than this evening.
  15. Last night was on the low end of what I hoped for...not at all a bust, but the initial warm ground, blowing snow, and only a few hours of true good lake enhancement all worked against more than a few inches in the hills (a local 5-6" spot in parts of NW PA). The ongoing snow showers are decent (and under-modeled), but agree they lift north of NEOH and dta tonight as winds go W or even WSW. Erie County PA will snow (and the airport has been snowing decently for a little while), but with a strong flow I do wonder if the immediate shore gets less than progged and snow sets up a bit inland (could certainly see how it's just inland but north of Edinboro tonight, but should shift inland tomorrow night).