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About OHweather

  • Birthday 09/01/1992

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  • Location:
    Hackettstown, NJ

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  1. OHweather

    Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    If the PNA is initially neutral or negative (as the EPS in particular shows) when the EPO drops, have to think that may favor a window for possible wintry weather in the Midwest before it gets too suppressive. I suspect the East Coast might have to impatiently wait through the week of Christmas for better snow chances along I-95, though I still think we’re recovering from the mid November coastal/fiasco anyways.
  2. OHweather

    December 1 Severe Weather

    This isn’t one of those “it may not register on the MLCAPE maps but look it’s 100 J/KG 0-3 km CAPE!” events we get in December...legit CAPE to go with winter dynamics. Was surprised to see that when I checked the mesoanalysis.
  3. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Yeah, wherever the best band sets up could still see a few inches as winds don’t move a ton, I just don’t think it’ll be that intense. Winds are roughly 290 and reasonably strong so I certainly think the Cleveland metro and southern Snowbelt should see something.
  4. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Tonight-Wednesday's leg of the event doesn't look as impressive for NE OH as yesterday when I looked...looks like the Euro idea of keeping the deep moisture farther east will pan out. There's a little shear but it's a reasonably well-aligned WNW flow for quite a while through Wednesday afternoon that isn't too strong with just enough instability and inversion heights of 5-7k feet, so there will still be accumulating snow probably from northern Lorain County points east, but I just don't know if the intensity will be there for more than a broad 1-4" of additional snow, focused wherever the convergence band develops and maybe in the higher terrain of northern Geauga as well. NW PA still gets into the deep moisture with a longer fetch and more terrain, so additional amounts in eastern inland Erie County will still probably justify the warning, especially since some of those areas already have 6-12" and will probably get that much more...though west of I-79 there will likely be a drop off somewhere to much more pedestrian amounts.
  5. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Looks like two shots for some snow the next few days...first Monday night into Tuesday morning with some initial wrap-around and lake enhancement...my impression is it's 2-4" in the higher terrain of Geauga and 3-6" for the higher terrain of Erie PA and SW NY through Tuesday afternoon...it's an ok but not outstanding setup, synoptic moisture decent but winds rather westerly and instability limited. So there should be accumulating snow in the usual spots, maybe pushing advisory criteria for some, most likely in parts of Erie County and the Chautauqua Ridge. The next period is Tuesday night and Wednesday when the models drop another vort max and good moisture through. The Euro is more of a clip job for NE OH while the NAM would be very good back into NE OH. With a WNW wind, colder temps, and longer duration, that's the window that could produce a substantial accumulations perhaps worthy of a warning...highest confidence again in the higher elevations of NW PA/SW NY, though if the NAM is right (and it's only a small shift west for the Euro) that could get as far west as the higher terrain of Medina County. A prolonged lake enhanced event with decent ratios, upslope and broad shoreline convergence with a WNW wind, and good moisture and instability would do quite well.
  6. OHweather

    Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

    That area will get back into better snow as the deform pulls east over the next few hours, but it will be an unfortunate local screw hole with lower totals than surrounding areas...always seems to happen somewhere.
  7. OHweather

    Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

    That's likely it. A lot of the higher res models had a little "dead zone" of lower totals between the best deformation currently over N and W IL and where the WCB is running into the CCB over NE IL.
  8. OHweather

    Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

    I was a little out of the loop Friday and Saturday so I can't comment specifically on how the forecast played out for their CWA, but it seems odd for them to come up with the reason they gave to not issue a warning when they have criteria amounts in their forecast...certainly a higher impact with a wetter snow, gusty winds, and rush hour timing too. I can see roadways not being covered in deep snow, but it'll still be quite slick when it comes down with visibility issues and probably some downed limbs and such too with the wet snow and gusty winds.
  9. OHweather

    Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

    I count 4 or 5 legit factors pointing towards needing a warning (not to mention the criteria being straight up hit in some spots) and 1 factor that GRR has invented arguing against it. This coming from the office that started the push to get rid of LES products several years ago because of how "confusing" they were ( ) to all of the people who use their products. Oh well. This is a hell of a storm so hopefully those getting hit can enjoy it. Chicago has done well with big dogs trending to them this decade, though the warm lake will hurt downtown on this one.
  10. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Yeah, that band got amazingly stuck.
  11. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    I suspect a better band will flare back up within an hour or two as the rather sharp trough moves across the lake...it won't be 2" per hour like they saw from Erie to Dunkirk this morning but should be moderate at least. The question for some of you will just be how far south it can get.
  12. OHweather

    November 8-10 Winter Weather/LES

    It just doesn’t fail there all that often. I’m glad this insane thermal profile over the lake didn’t get wasted by the short event and shifty winds.
  13. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    I think northern OH sees a light snow, but it’s not a strong system and temps aren’t that cold so probably a 1-2” deal (less near the lake). Maybe some LES behind it but that doesn’t currently look fantastic.
  14. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    The NE corner of Ohio and parts of Erie County got a good amount this morning, already a 9” report SE of Erie. Hopefully the bands are intact later and can make it far enough south for some of you to see something.
  15. OHweather

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    That band is already hugging the shore more than the models had earlier and is pretty organized...may briefly get disrupted in a couple of hours as the first trough passes but will re-organize early Saturday through much of the morning. It will likely lock in 10-15 miles south of where it is now early Saturday and should dump where that happens...hopefully that can affect some of you guys south of Buffalo. It should flip to snow within the next hour or two. Edit: based on dual pol the heart of the band is starting to flip now.