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  • Birthday 09/01/1992

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    Hackettstown, NJ

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  1. I'm going to be in NE Ohio for a few days, and am excited to at least see some flakes Wednesday night. I doubt I'll see much in northern Summit County (maybe a dusting), but it's a pretty moist upslope setup so the higher terrain in Geauga could certainly squeak out 2-4". It's marginal temperature wise and not that intense so the lower elevations will probably struggle mightily.
  2. I think there’d be a window before the trough settles in for some sort of snow and then during the second week of December as it starts warming up. It’s not optimal and yeah that mean would be too suppressive for a time, but I think it boils down to a 10-14 day period of below average temperatures with a somewhat active southern stream...it may not work out but I think enough ingredients are there for opportunities.
  3. Even if the op runs aren’t as exciting with individual threats right now, I’d still role the dice with this pattern with an active jet out of the southwest and a -EPO that gradually pushes the baroclinic zone south. It’s not perfect but should work for someone eventually, and it will take a while for above normal temperatures to return. Also, 1. Someone should see snow in Ohio tomorrow even if it’s not over Angry’s head (might be a little to the east/northeast of him) 2. Last winter was better than average for a majority of the sub, so a repeat wouldn’t be the worst, but the pattern should feature more blocking this winter so those on the southern and eastern fringes that didn’t do as well as everyone else last winter may make up for it this year. Most places are already off to a decent start with no signs of any prolonged snowless/warm patterns through mid-December.
  4. The look of a -NAO, -PNA and active sub-tropical jet would be very good for a lot of this sub-forum starting around the end of November (though intially may favor those in the northern half of it). If the EPO drops after day 10 as the ensembles are trying to hint at that would eventually shift the baroclinic zone far enough south for the Ohio Valley to also get more in the game for early December.
  5. Some big totals coming in from Geauga and Ashtabula. A lot of areas at 10-15” so far adding the reports together. We’ll see how things fill in report wise farther west. Glad you guys both got into the double digits!
  6. It seems like the shear kept bands a little bit too disorganized to really add up in any one spot (except for parts of Ashtabula County into western Crawford County who are getting crushed). There should be another flare-up in a few hours as winds turn more WNW and we get some Lake Michigan moisture, but it's likely fairly modest...maybe another 1-3" in spots. Edit: a couple of reports ranging from 8-11” near Wellington in Lorain County for the surprise of the storm so far.
  7. Looks like everyone did well enough last night that the low ends will be hit most areas without too much effort today...we'll see if there's persistent enough banding anywhere for some spot to hit the high end of my evergreen aggressive ranges.
  8. A few quick thoughts... Looks like everyone except the immediate lakeshore (including Cleveland proper) and CAK to YNG is over to decent snow, with the Chardon cam looking like between 1-2" already. I think the idea of 1-2" lakeshore/lower elevations and 2-4" in the hills in northeast/north-central OH for the synoptic snow is just fine. CAK to YNG will come in closer to an inch or two of synoptic snow that far south. As for the lake effect, I'll attach a few images to go with this. But it's an impressive synoptic setup with extreme instability and very deep moisture. The only small fly in the ointment is some shear and gradually shifting winds, though I think the overwhelming positives will still result in fairly widespread heavy amounts. The thermodynamics and moisture become outstanding at CLE and ERI (CLE shown) tomorrow morning with extreme instability, very high EL heights, deep moisture to over 10k feet and instability and lift focused in the snow growth zone. The profiles remain outstanding through the afternoon before inversions and moisture depth gradually come down through Tuesday night, though even through Tuesday night the lift and instability are well-placed in the snow growth zone, so any bands would be efficient. There is moderate shear through most of the day tomorrow before the flow becomes better aligned tomorrow evening through early Wednesday, though the somewhat weaker flow may help offset the shear a little bit. So, synoptically there's a lot going on...we have multiple vorts moving through along with a large plume of 700mb moisture that is overhead for several hours Tuesday morning and early afternoon... We do gradually lose synoptic support and deeper moisture Tuesday evening as the vorts move east. Lower down, there's good agreement on a trough extending across NE Ohio for much of the day (it's already developing) along with multiple upstream connections, including from Lake Huron: This should focus a broad area of enhanced snow showers with a few heavier bands where upstream connections occur, and also decent terrain enhancement given the moist NW flow hitting the terrain all day. This seems to favor NE Ohio for heavier snow than NW PA through most of Tuesday, though as winds shift more westerly late Tuesday better snow will shift east into NW PA (they'll likely see decent snow showers before the "better" snow shifts east into there later in the day). Tuesday night inversion heights and moisture depth come down, but convergence will increase over the Snowbelt as ridging builds overland and winds turn more W or WNW...there will also be one last shot of Lake Michigan moisture. While banding won't be as intense, light to moderate bands with efficient snow may linger through much of the night east of CLE and through NW PA/SW NY. Given a long duration of very favorable conditions late tonight through Tuesday afternoon and enough juice for some banding through Tuesday night, I remain aggressive with the lake effect forecast. This map includes the 1-2/2-4" synoptic snow falling now. The Huron band may go into the eastern suburbs or Geauga County for several hours which would bode well for the bullseye in that area...if this band occurs and sits anywhere totals will easily exceed a foot for the whole event. It feels odd forecasting this much for a shorter fetch event with winds moving around some, but I think the positives are rather overwhelming...as always, we'll see.
  9. CLE didn’t have accumulating snow in until 7pm so I’m not quite sure what their concern is (I also think they’re conservative on the LES so losing an inch of synoptic doesn’t hurt much). I think it’s all fairly on track, models all kept it pretty warm downwind of the lake until rates really ramp up after 5-6pm at which point the higher terrain should start to flip quickly...lakeshore may take until 8pm.
  10. Yeah, your area is unfortunate for snow lovers for a few reasons. But, everyone should get something at least, which isn’t too bad for this early. I do suspect advisories fill in for the rest of Ohio tomorrow due to the falling temperatures and icy roads along with the snow even if not everyone is hitting the advisory criteria. My guess is near you right by the lake struggles to get 2” due to the warmth you mentioned but inland will do better.
  11. I may or may not have time to post a more technical discussion tonight or tomorrow, but here's the map I posted on FB: The thinking is 1-2" of synoptic snow near the lake and 2-4" inland, highest in the hills. Temperatures marginal during the synoptic snow in the Cleveland area so hills should do better as they'll be colder and also have some orographic lift to enhance the snow. Then the rest of the is lake effect. Parameters are very good, with a prolonged period of extreme instability and much better moisture than the last event. The flow is also fairly light and well aligned with decent synoptic support in a cyclonic flow under an upper-level trough. The temperature profile is ideal for high ratios with the lake effect. Question is band placement and persistence. Winds swing NNE to NW late Monday night through Tuesday morning which should swing a Huron band from west of Cleveland east across the primary snowbelt, possibly getting into NW PA during the afternoon. Outside of this band, favorable parameters should allow decent orographic lift snow showers to allow for continued slower accumulations, especially in the hills. Both the NAM and RGEM show a vort max and surface trough dropping through late Tuesday afternoon or evening that may focus a more organized convergence band near Cleveland east into the snowbelt. This band may linger through most of Tuesday night as ridging builds south of the lake and turns winds more SW over land, with the snow eventually lifting NE and weakening by Wednesday morning. Any bands early Tuesday through Tuesday night can produce 1-2" per hour rates in their core and perhaps some thundersnow. The secondary snowbelt in southern Cuyahoga/northern Medina is odd...should get 2-4" of synoptic snow, another 1-3 or 2-4" through Tuesday AM as the Huron band swings east with orographic lift outside of it, and then not sure if the possible convergence band Tuesday evening/night sets up there or a little father north. Either way they should get several inches and could get 8"+ if they get the convergence band later Tuesday/Tuesday night. For eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga, thinking 2-4" of synoptic snow, another 2-4" or so through Tuesday AM, perhaps up to 6" if the Huron band is slow enough, and then likely at least several more inches where the convergence band sets up later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Either way, I think that higher terrain gets widespread double digits with well over a foot if / where the convergence band develops and is persistent. Into NW PA, similar synoptic story, perhaps a tad more in the higher terrain, the Huron band may swing east into there and allow for beefier totals too, and even outside of that there will be some orographic lift. Think widespread 8"+ is likely in the higher terrain in southern Erie and northern Crawford Counties.. Let it snow!
  12. Euro looks a little more amped lol...this is 10:1 so probably can add a bit more in some areas.
  13. I see no reason not to go full Euro/RGEM at this point given the American guidance performance. Pretty prolonged period of light to briefly moderate fgen snow Sunday night into Monday morning from IA to northern IL/southern WI and southern MI, followed by a nice ana-frontal snow shield that expands/intensifies from west to east Monday into Monday night as the 500mb vort and right-entrance quadrant of the upper level jet streak swing through. Soundings don't look perfect for high ratios but they will be more than 10:1 by late Sunday night and Monday as colder air pours in. Don't see why there won't be 2-4" of snow from parts of IA east, and probably more like 3-6" for northern IL and southern MI. The NAM is still trending towards a slightly sharper shortwave with higher heights ahead of it so it will likely move the northern edge north towards the Euro and RGEM in MI.
  14. Here’s another link to the PNS. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CLE&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Some 2-4” reports down into Portage and Trumbull Counties even. Hopefully the next event can spread the wealth some more!
  15. That radar loop is very unfortunate for your area for sure