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About OHweather

  • Birthday 09/01/1992

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  • Location:
    Macedonia, OH

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  1. Another 0.8” of fluffy snow during the day in Macedonia. My total is 0.8” of system snow and 3.0” of lake effect. A minor miracle this winter.
  2. Had about 0.8” from the synoptic snow and another 2.2” from LES overnight through 7:15 when I measured. A burst just dropped 1.5” in about half an hour at the office.
  3. While my optimism for the extended range has completely faded, it's worth noting that Saturday has the potential to be interesting for lake effect snow from in and around the Cleveland metro points northeast.
  4. The trend over the last few days on the ensembles for the last few days of February has been awful. Trending to a -PNA/+EPO and at best a neutral AO and NAO pattern. So the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will trend mild to end this month as cold gets scoured from Canada. That’s not to say it can’t or won’t snow at some point in March, but we’re done with anything sustained at this point. The active stretch in January was fun. The rest has objectively sucked, which is how winters seem to go anymore.
  5. I am way overdue on properly responding to this... Our bread and butter for snow is a polar jet dominated pattern with a lot of clippers and lake effect. An occasional panhandle hook/Colorado low and rare low from the Gulf can give us one or two larger storms a winter, but we get snowy seasonal totals when we get stretches where it just snows a lot and adds up. We have not had that for more than brief stretches in recent winters, despite a few impressive synoptic snows. I think some of the things driving our recent lack of snowy winters are cyclic, while others are related to longer term trends. I think the NAO is somewhat cyclic, with stretches where it's predominantly positive historically. We may be coming out of the ongoing stretch of +NAO...but it has contributed to the recent lack of snow. I also think the PDO is somewhat cyclic. A strong -PDO favors a SE ridge, while a +PDO favors a +PNA. A -PDO is a wetter pattern, but the +PNA isn't always optimal for us (sometimes the trough ends up a bit too far east). A -PDO, though, can just be mild/rainy. The warming Indian-Pacific warm pool is a longer term trend, and it probably does favor more active convection in an area that tends to favor mild weather for us. In some winters, that can result in periods of -EPO blocking which can result in nice Arctic blasts, but it also runs a -PNA and southeast ridge risk. I do think that could lead to an overall decrease in snow averages locally, but I also think there are other factors that are more cyclic and should break more favorably at some point soon.
  6. If you want a local hot take, CLE will more than double their current seasonal total over the remainder of winter. That isn't saying a TON, but I don't think we've seen half our snow yet for the season. The next several weeks will be more wintry. While I'm not convinced it'll be the snowiest pattern ever, it will snow occasionally with generally chilly conditions.
  7. After a very busy few weeks (personally and professionally), I myself enjoyed knowing all week this week that there wasn't a legitimate snow chance for me to look at for the foreseeable future. I love snow but I needed to catch up . A warm-up after the recent cold snap always seemed likely. The warm-up probably came a few days later than I initially thought and is definitely lasting 1-2 weeks longer than I may have hoped. However, I still think we'll get another decent window of colder weather, likely starting around the middle of February. I do think this upcoming window may favor the eastern U.S. for snow more than parts of the Midwest. Tropical forcing has been relatively active and important this season, despite the strong El Nino. Note how passages through the western hemisphere in early-mid November and mid-late December were followed by pattern changes a couple of weeks later. The most recent wave has been especially amplified and slow-moving across the eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This almost certainly contributed to the ongoing milder pattern not just being a quick deal. My guess would be that the combination of the collapsed +Indian Ocean Dipole event (that peaked in the fall), weakening El Nino, and ongoing stratospheric warming event earlier this month all contributed to such amplified tropical forcing in these areas. The pattern over the last week and over the next several days definitely has some resemblance to the MJO 5-6-7 composites for mid-late January. The question is, do we get continued propagation through phases 7-8-1? The dynamical models are a mess, the statistical models say yes: The dynamic models (EPS and CFS the last two images) suggest a very odd/confused signal over the next 10 or so days, followed by what could be a more coherent eastward propagation towards mid-February. The statistical models have a more consistent eastward propagation over the next two weeks. Looking at the actual velocity potential anomaly forecasts from the CFS and EPS: They suggest continued propagation through the first week of February, with forcing persisting thereafter over the western hemisphere. I would consider tropical forcing to generally be supportive of a transition back to a colder pattern, as it seems like one way or another, most guidance suggests we should see it become more focused over the western hemisphere in February. That supports a +PNA/-NAO. However, I would also consider tropical forcing to be a source of uncertainty as the models seem to be trying to sort out a complex evolution over the next couple of weeks. If we can get the phase 8-1 response the mild weather would not last forever: I would say the recent and ongoing positive East Asian Mountain Torque isn't necessarily the cause of the ongoing +EPO (I believe the tropical forcing is the cause), but the increased storminess the extended Pacific jet has caused is flooding Pacific air into the northern US and Canada. As the east Asian Mountain torque turns negative over the next week the PNA will briefly trend more negative. However, by mid-February the East Asian Mountain Torque is shown to trend more positive, so any -PNA trend won't last long. With more favorable tropical forcing that should increase blocking along the west coast and into Alaska: To me, it seems like there's a decent shot that by mid-February we see a more positive PNA and eventually more negative NAO due to the evolution of the mountain torque and tropical forcing. At the same time, our recent SSW event would be due to down well into the troposphere during the second half of February. So if we will see a prolonged period of tropospheric blocking it would begin during the second half of February. In short, more cold weather should be coming mid to late February. The pattern may end up being more favorable for the East Coast than Midwest overall, but there should be a period of relatively increased snow potential after the ongoing slow stretch.
  8. Any chance you were out and about this morning there? I was also worried in the evening when I saw the warm surface temps, but I saw a lot of schools closed and I saw some reports of very icy conditions. Curious to hear how bad it actually was or wasn’t. TOL never got below 34 degrees
  9. Went for a hike in the Novelty and Punderson areas this afternoon and drove 422 into Solon around 6 PM. Decent LES out there. Could definitely tell Novelty had gotten a few inches of very fluffy snow today and it was still coming down, especially when I left. The conditions coming into Solon when the LES band was more consolidated were solid, with visibility reduced to about half a mile as dendrites dumped. Snow rates may have been close to an inch an hour, the highway and main roads in Solon were snow packed with a good inch, and side roads and parking lots that were less disturbed looked to have a good couple inches on them. Back in Macedonia, I picked up slightly over an inch today...giving me a total of 13.7" over the last two days. It hasn't snowed many times this winter but when it has, it has delivered here.
  10. I’ve been up in the Mayfield/Highland Hts area this afternoon and there have been some decent bursts of fluffy lake effect. The scraps overnight at my house brought my storm total up to 12.5”. Much of the area caught up yesterday afternoon through early this morning (although ironically, outside of Erie and Huron which didn’t verify, the warnings I’m least confident in being able to verify are Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula lakeshore. The Ashtabula lakeshore zone is often hard to verify, but not verifying Geauga in this sort of setup while verifying the entire Cleveland metro would be quite a twist)
  11. I will take a better look and respond to this over the next couple of days! I have some thoughts but would like to look a bit more/think a bit more on it. CLE hasn't had a snowier than average winter since 2013-14 (though most other sites have had at least 1-2 since), so whatever the cause it hasn't been a trivial stretch of poor winters from a snow perspective.
  12. I'll do a measure and clear in an hour or so, but just sticking a ruler into my new snow since 1:20 brings my storm total to right at a foot! What an afternoon. Snow has finally slowed down, but hasn't stopped. Also, woof: https://x.com/Shinutsurai1/status/1748454511679582364?s=20 (17" public report from Maple Heights)
  13. I was going to try to put something together over the next few days or week. Have fallen slightly out of touch with the long range on night shifts and with the incoming snow the last several days. A warm up after this cold snap isn't surprising to me, but I'll admit the long range ensembles are not giving me optimism regarding how quickly cold may come back after the warmup. I remember one event on super bowl Sunday in 2022 with this type of flow when a mesolow formed just east of the Islands and brought several (unforecasted) inches of snow to Erie/Huron Counties. This event gave me some flashbacks to that, but it didn't materialize at all. In that event the lake was mostly frozen but water opened up east of the Islands, whereas this one maybe it's the other way around with more ice there and more open water farther east.
  14. You may end up grinding out accumulations through tomorrow evening so hopefully you catch up some, but agree the band is wiggling back west at the moment. Where it pivots this afternoon totals will be huge. I have 5.2" new since my 1.4" morning measure and it's dumping again here. The band will probably wiggle west until 3 or 4pm and then snap east after that as the trough axis moves through.
  15. When the better lake enhancement started developing in Lorain Co early this morning the writing was unfortunately on the wall for the Erie and Huron warnings. The synoptic snow being even more boring than hoped hurt even more. With all of that said, there’s an interesting area of enhancement along a trough axis (with some Lake Huron connection) swinging southeast out of MI right now, so you may be able to add some more when it swings through later this afternoon. Not enough to get you close to 6” but maybe another inch or two wherever it goes. This event has been painful outside of the lake enhanced band.
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