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OHweather

Meteorologist
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About OHweather

  • Birthday 09/01/1992

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSMQ
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Hackettstown, NJ

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  1. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    This winter goes to show how much NE OH's snowfall climo depends on frequent light to moderate snows with an occasional prolonged lake effect/enhanced event. You guys pulled off your biggest synoptic storm since the 2010-11 winter, and are still way below normal. So different here on the east coast where some areas (especially NYC to BOS still) remain pretty far in the hole, but could get a chunk of that back with one storm. NE OH has a hard time making up ground without a rare big storm (either synoptic or LES) if they go a few weeks with little snow, which has happened several times this winter.
  2. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Yeah, the northern cutoff ended up being a bit abrupt. CLE reported a 1"/hr rate in the 7-8am hour but the radar has been more paltry for Lake/Geauga on east. Not a great northeast OH winter...
  3. OHweather

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    Looks like 3-5" panned out across Franklin County...Dayton was on a gradient with 4-5" north and probably 2" south. ILN's office got an inch of snow and almost a quarter inch of ice. The idea went well but I was probably 10 or 20 miles too generous with my 1-2 and 2-4" southern cutoffs...the 3-6" area seems to be going well. Too bad it happened so early in the morning, hard to beat thundersnow in terms of excitement. I've been at work since 3:30 AM which is why I've been so involved in the wee hours of the morning.
  4. OHweather

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    DAY reported another 2" last hour (4" on the ground, now mixing with freezing rain) and CMH reported 1" last hour (with 2" on the ground).
  5. OHweather

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    Big puffy balls of sleet I guess. It did sleet all the way up to Troy and then changed back to snow about as far south as the middle of Dayton when the thunderstorms moved in. The visibility also really dropped at the airport when that happened. You must've not been watching? Or are well south of KDAY? The sleet line is inching back north now so DAY likely goes back over to it before much longer. If it was really all sleet as you claim and they got 2" in an hour, that'd be even more nuts than if it was snow.
  6. OHweather

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    Maybe you're just north of Wright Pat. I've been checking ODOT cams it is snowing in/north of downtown Dayton. The CC line on radar is pretty accurate based on where you can see snow flakes on cameras.
  7. OHweather

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    You must be south of the airport. And yes, you count sleet as snow.
  8. OHweather

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    KDAY just reported 2" in the last hour and was mixing with freezing rain or sleet until 4:24AM! Nuts!
  9. OHweather

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    The convection is pushing the mixing line back south...Dayton is snowing again (KDAY reporting thunder snow!) and the Columbus airports are starting to flip again too...if you're struggling and along/north of 70 farther east should improve when the convection moves east.
  10. OHweather

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    Yeah, a good chunk has gotten into SW OH too the last half hour or so. The CC line on radar is trying to fight back near Dayton and Columbus, so we'll see if the dynamic cooling can happen. Mixing did get rather far north quickly with much of Columbus currently mixing... someone is going to get drilled and it'd be nice if it can be a majority of our central Ohio posters in this thread and not just the northern folks.
  11. OHweather

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    Dayton airport (which is N of downtown) reported 1" of snow last hour. Per the correlation coefficient (CC), the heavier precip moving into Cincinnati is attempting to flip things back for snow. For Cincinnati not sure if this ends up doing anything, but farther north along southern cutoff it might make a difference and was needed to get the southern edge of the heavier snow to work out. The precip moving WSW-ENE out of southern IN is convective and has some lightning, and is what would bring the heaviest rates to OH. I think Columbus hangs on long enough to see snow during this, but it's still close...much more certain a little north. A narrow portion of southern OH may do well with freezing rain as some stations have already gone to it south of route 50 and still have modest dry air advecting in...could see some spots crack 0.10" ice accumulation.
  12. OHweather

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    In terms of warnings it is debatable. There is no where near the required 80% confidence in 6”+ occurring in any given spot (even if it’s possible, it’s not that confident)...but based on impacts an argument could be made that several counties near I-70 particularly near/E/NE of Franklin could be upgraded on an impact based basis. Even that is a little flimsy as confidence still isn’t great, though at this point most signs are pointing towards that area getting hit reasonably hard for a few hours.
  13. OHweather

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    This should be a half decent thump of snow tomorrow morning (thinking 2-3" for Cleveland and increasing quickly to the south) as it keeps trending north/beefier...but as you guys brought up, it warms up and rains by tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully it's a scenic wet snow when it comes down at least.
  14. OHweather

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    Here's my guess. Confidence is obviously lower than normal. I'm confident in a 3-6" band but not confident on southern extent, and there is an all or nothing element to this type of event. Everything still supports a lot of QPF and the expectation is that wet bulbing/dynamic cooling will slow the northern translation of the change to rain enough to allow for a decent accumulation of snow. I'm thinking that as it comes into Ohio the precip starts changing to sleet/snow and farther north mainly snow. The heaviest precip appears to be between 3 AM and 9 AM from west to east as a band of convection wraps into the frontogenetically forced band of precip across central Ohio...hi-res models are explicitly showing QPF rates of 0.10-0.25"+ per hour when that occurs. Soundings are close to supporting thunder in central and southern Ohio in that window. Strong lift in the DGZ and a deep layer close to freezing in the low-level may allow for large, aggregated dendrites during that convective snow. That is the precip that should slow the northern progression of the mixing while it occurs and may even cause areas to flip back to sleet or snow a bit farther south. However, it is a short window with little margin for error. The mesoscale forcing isn't as strong in northern Ohio, though vort advection aloft and very strong upper-level ventilation into a near record-strong jet streak to the north/northeast will allow light to moderate snow (with fewer thermal profile issues) to extend north into all of northern Ohio. My thinking is that the precip comes into Ohio as sleet/snow...near and north of I-70 it likely is mostly snow at the onset due to plenty of room to wet-bulb. Farther south may start as sleet/snow and try going to rain quickly, but then possibly flip back to snow as the convection and heavy rates work through closer to dawn. This is the area of most uncertainty. It's possible the US 50 corridor including Cincinnati and Athens doesn't flip back to snow during the heavy precip and sees little if any accumulation...though if they do flip even for an hour or two they may quickly get 2-4". Along I-70 there isn't much margin for error but I feel better about them being mainly snow during the heaviest precip...farther north confidence does increase quite a bit. Because the temp gradient is oriented more WNW-ESE, it wouldn't be surprising if heavy snow occurs a bit farther south over eastern Ohio than western Ohio. Given the dynamics, QPF and rates I'm quite confident in a band of 3-6" occurring somewhere north of I-70 where it's all snow, so the bust potential along and south of that corridor (including Columbus and especially Dayton) has more to do with questions over ptype during the heaviest burst. There has been a slight tick north today which makes southern Ohio even more questionable than it was off the bat. In terms of what the ceiling is, hi-res models are showing intense lift in the DGZ with the convective precip around sunrise...if that can fall as all snow for more than 2-3 hours someone can probably rip off a quick 8"...but good luck forecasting that. If I had to guess where it would possibly be, somewhere in Delaware/Licking/Morrow/Knox/Holmes/Coshocton/Tusc/Guernsey Counties would probably have the best shot. Good luck in your respective back yards!
  15. OHweather

    Feb 19-20th winter storm

    As has been mentioned the WAA thump in IN/OH will be interesting. This is not unheard of in these parts but is pretty uncommon... The temp profiles would warm quickly enough to preclude much accumulation if not for wet bulbing/dynamic cooling. The dynamics are impressive (especially as you head east into OH) with very strong upper-level divergence in the right entrance quad of a strong jet streak, a deep layer of strong isentropic lift on a 70-80 kt LLJ, a tight thermal gradient/strong fgen, high PWATs advecting in and steep lapse rates above the mid-level warm nose providing for borderline convective instability. This will combat the change to rain for a time and allow for heavy rates while it's snowing. This has some similarities to the November front end thump on the East Coast that was wildly underpredicted by humans (though modeled embarrassingly well) but is toned down a tad (it produced a widespread 6-12")...I think some 6" lollis are doable in the heaviest band into OH and it will fall in a short time.
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