George001

We need this to weaken much faster for a big March. We aren’t going to get a SSW or anything before it’s too late, but if we can get it to weaken to like average and then get some pacific help we have a shot.

This storm looks like it’s coming back. I’m honestly surprised I thought it was dead like 2 days ago, and gave up on it. The radar looks really good and the models keep trending west. I’m thinking 6-10 with an iso foot in some areas. 6+ as far NW as central mass, with high snow ratios leading to higher totals than model snow maps have. This setup looks similar to the early Jan storm.

Right now I am, but if this winter goes out with a whimper like last year I’ll end up below average. The long range looks awful too.

This looks like an interesting setup for the 20th. Not great, looks too flat but with a few adjustments maybe we have something. It looks like we are going to torch after this so maybe we were looking at the wrong system for the big pattern changing storm.

Not perfect but I would take that and run, nothing wrong with a bunch of smaller 6-12 type deals. We have been missing that this year. I would like to see one more big one before winter ends, but it looks like if we get one it’s going to wait until March. This mid month threat just doesn’t want to cooperate.

I’m out on this. Too many steps back, we are going to need major changes for something big which is very unlikely at this point. The energy just doesn’t want to phase.

This winter ****ing sucks it’s last year all over again. Looks promising in late Jan and early Feb, then the models have the pattern going to shit with a death vortex over the North Pole and Alaska. The mid month pattern changing storm trended in the wrong direction and now it’s looking like that which once looked promising, has a low probability to become a big storm. This winter is going to go out with a whimper just like last year, absolutely pathetic sorry excuse for a winter. I should have known once the polar vortex started deepening well into January that winter was cooked.

I’m starting to get nervous. Not giving up yet, still has time to come back but I wanted to see a stronger low tonight even if it’s offshore. We need the southern energy to be more consolidated, with the ridge axis so far west and amplified I would think it would be more consolidated. Idk what’s going on.

God ****ing damn it we can’t afford to have steps back like that at this stage. Navy is out to sea too. We need to get the Navy on board asap.

I’m interested to see what the Canadian says. If we get another bump west with the northern energy on that we will start seeing the strength of the low increase a lot, none of that 1000s and 990s mb nonsense.

Looks a bit like the 12z Canadian with that northern energy closed off

I disagree no steps back from the NAM. ICON yes, but the ICON is terrible.

This does not look bad at all

Yeah 18z looked a little better, slower overall evolution with the northern branch farther west. But even the 12z euro which had a really weak surface reflection I thought looked good at h5.

This looks really close to something big (12+). I don’t get how the surface can be so weak with this look at h5. It needs some work yeah but even as is I would think the surface low would end up stronger.

What really interests me is that piece in Canada. A slower evolution would hopefully give that more time to catch up and phase in. Without that this is just a moderate event, I’m looking for something big.

I hope the models are wrong

Eh I hate winters that shut off early (like last year). If we get this threat to pan out, then after the warm spell late month another big one to pan out in March, I’ll be happy.

That’s not true, sometimes cutters in the long range turn into Miller bs. The Dec 2020 storm was modeled to cut to Wisconsin in the long range, and ended up being a Miller b nor’easter with over a foot of snow in my area.

I’m straight up ignoring the surface this was a good run. Not a hit but a step in the right direction. Need to get that third piece to phase in though if we want something really big.

euro is better than 0z at h5. Northern stream is digging more and less energy being held back out west.

That’s like a 200 miles shift west in one run, I buy it too with the ridge axis as far west as it is. This seems familiar…

That is amazing. It’s actually so far west at the surface that eastern areas rain lol

Subby hole over eastern mass, big hit for the cape and western areas.

Big shift west from last run, great start to the 0z suite.