George001

Not a huge storm but better than 18z, good start to the 0z suite.

Wait a sec it looks really good at hour 150

Low is way north, over central Long Island.

Looks like some big changes on the gfs, I can’t really tell if they are good or bad though

Those maps are a lot snowier than the ones on tropical tidbits. Regardless, looks really good at h5. The key takeaway this far out is we have an active period coming up with multiple chances.

That’s a burial for NNE, and closes off just a bit too far north for eastern mass.

It is amping up the wave behind it though

Yeah there’s no sugarcoating it, yesterday’s gfs wasn’t good at all if you are rooting for snow. Low in Wisconsin with no secondary. Today’s 18z gfs is weak and ots.

Kev and Torch Tiger all in

Interesting thing about the gfs is it amps up the wave behind it and turns it into a strong storm just a couple days after the 1st wave whiffs. That second threat is still within the timeframe given for this thread too.

Gfs is weak and disorganized, Canadian is a cutter and Euro is a big snowstorm. Still a long ways to go with this one.

Yeah, nobody is saying we are going to get a blizzard or anything crazy like that. We are just acknowledging that things are looking more favorable than a couple days ago with more guidance showing Miller B redevelopment. It won’t be a blizzard, but a moderate snow is in the cards.

Yeah it looks like it’s turning into a Miller B

I kind of get it, this winter has been rough for snow weenies. I know this is kind of cruel, but there is a small part of me that hopes a low goes over his noggin for downplaying every threat, even though that would mean I rain too.

Still needs work for SNE but a step in the right direction

It’s trying for a Miller B, but primary still too far north so there’s no cold air.

Gfs is still way north. It’s buried the energy again, Euro and Canadian eject more energy.

Whatever drugs the Euro took before the start of this run, I want them.

Hmm looks like it doesn’t plow into Canada after all. It transfers after cutting to the Dakotas but too late. Need that whole process to occur way SE for us to get snow.

Yep Euro is more north. Looks like the low is plowing into the Dakotas and then into central Canada.

Yep, it also looks like a second low is developing on the backside of storm after it cuts to Chicago. That wasn’t there last run.

That’s the goal, while being a weenie is fun sometimes constant wishcasting doesn’t really contribute to the discussion. Nobody wants to hear “blizzard incoming” and get a few inches of slush a couple days later. I’m starting to find that it’s more enjoyable to track when I’m actually being realistic and objective. Just because a couple runs of the gfs had a Miller B with 12+ inches of snow and no mixing whatsoever for my area doesn’t mean it’s time to start calling for a blizzard. A lack of high pressure to the north and east or southeast winds ripping over us at the height of the storm doesn’t exactly scream big snow, regardless of what the clown maps say.

Man, seeing the other side of it really puts it into perspective how obnoxious I was when I was calling for blizzards really far out. It’s best to just keep an open mind to a wide range of outcomes at this stage.

The Pope doesn’t always tell us what we want to hear, but unlike qqomega he knows his shit.

Looks like an inch or so of snow and sleet here. The TV mets had the right idea going with the more conservative guidance, and if anything I ended up on the low end of the 1-3 I was expected to get (was briefly upped to 3-5, then taken back down after some north ticks close in). Still was a fun storm to track though, despite my area never really being in the mix for big snows due to the temp issues.