George001

I’d gladly take this over 2015-2016 without a second thought

Euro got a lot snowier this run especially for the second threat. It does still change to rain eventually for a lot of us but there is much more front end now. If the other guidance starts trending towards an SWFE we might have to start talking about an area of sleet and ice south of the pike before the dry slot.

Too early to say what March will or won’t be this year. Hell, it’s too early to say what Feb will look like.

Yeah I don’t agree with the idea that March isn’t a winter month. March 2018 was a straight up burial and the snowpack hung around for a few weeks.

Yeah there are some positive signs with the polar vortex, even if it’s not an SSW just a weaker than normal polar vortex could be enough to help us avoid a rat. I don’t think it will be enough to get us to climo, but I’ll gladly take one big storm to get us out of complete rat territory.

I agree that it will snow again, even in 2018-2019 (which I think this winter is most similar to) where storms kept running inland, we did eventually get a big storm in March. I got about a a foot and a half from that one, enough to take the winter out of rat territory but still below average. That’s what I think this winter will do, we get a bit of a late comeback with a weaker polar vortex, maybe blocking comes back, etc. I think we will get one big snowstorm and that’s it, it will be enough to make this winter not a rat but not enough to reach climo. In between the snow events, we are going to get some rain too. We will get more rain next winter, and the winter after that. Hell, even in 2014-2015 we had a few big rainstorms with lows running inland the 1st half. Just like how snow is a part of New England climo in winter, rain is too. Inland runners and cutters are a part of our climo just like coastals are, there’s just no point in getting pissed every time we get one. They aren’t going anywhere whether I like it or not. Now that I got a taste of tracking a few cutters and inland runners, I’m not going back. Tracking the Christmas week cutter was a lot of fun, almost as much fun as tracking snowstorms (nothing will beat tracking slow moving Miller Bs though). I track rainstorms in the summer too, and my best fishing day was right after a tropical storm with flooding rains and extreme wind. If I hated rain that much that it would ruin my day every time rain is in the forecast, i would move to the desert. If you hate rain living right near the ocean isn’t the best idea.

What’s wrong with getting excited about rainstorms? I just bought a rain gauge, and am looking forward to putting it to use on Monday for the inland runner the models have. Im looking forward to finding out exactly how much rain we get. If you allow yourself to get excited about a wider variety of weather this hobby becomes a lot more enjoyable. We can’t control the weather so what’s the point in letting it ruin your day? For me, I would rather embrace the weather we get, not only root for a specific type of weather and get pissed when we don’t get it. I get a lot more enjoyment out of this hobby now that I’m doing that.

Not really, it’s still a really impressive storm even if it’s rain.

If watching the models just pisses you off and ruins your day, there’s no point in engaging in this hobby. I got pissed the past couple of years when snow threats would go ots, cut inland etc, but this winter it happened so much that I got fed up and decided that I’m going to have an open mind and try getting excited about rainstorms as well. I’m enjoying tracking the models the most I have since 2015 despite only having like 3 inches of snow halfway through the winter. That’s a success in my book, I can’t control the weather, but I can control my mindset towards it. This changed mindset is also helping me be a lot more objective about looking at the pattern rather than trying to constantly delude myself into thinking every storm will be a blizzard. I know a lot of you hate rain, but highly recommend having an open mind and just try tracking a rainstorm a few times without even considering the possibility it will change to a snowstorm. Try actually getting excited about it, and looking forward to the rain you get. Maybe even get a rain gauge and start measuring the rain, for me I’m planning on doing exactly that for this coming storm. It looks like I will be able to use my new rain gauge this Monday, and I’m really fucking excited about that.

Tracking rainstorms can be fun too, I like tracking big storms in general. Id rather have it be a blizzard for my area but I can’t control the weather, so there’s no point in getting pissed about it. It’s it’s going to be a big rainstorm, why not enjoy the process of tracking it? We post on this board because we are fascinated by the weather right? Well, if it just snowed all the time what would be the point in tracking? In New England we get all different types of weather, hurricanes, blizzards, heatwaves, arctic blasts, nor’easters, tropical storms, sunny days, cloudy days, etc. I wouldn’t have it any other way, and I find that I enjoy this hobby more when I have an open mind to tracking inland runners and cutters that I know will be rain for me.

982 mb, that’s one hell of a storm. I’m starting to get excited about Mondays storm threat.

I know you are a troll but that’s actually good advice. There are plenty of fun things you can do that don’t involve snow like golfing, fishing, etc. If it’s 60 in January or February, why not take advantage of the record breaking warmth and golf?

Or drive a few hundred miles north

I’m leaning that way as well, but we did see some good trends today so it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Euro looks good for ski areas for the first threat. The low goes right over se mass and is a fairly strong storm.

It has nothing to do with the past 3 years. The trough is in the Midwest with the western ridge axis offshore for the 25-26th threat, I don’t like seeing that if looking for snow in my area. Almost looks similar to the Christmas week setup.

The Canadian trended nw with the 25th storm, it has a low in Chicago. Due to the overall longwave pattern, I am convinced the Canadian is on to something, and there is room for that storm to trend even more nw (low in Wisconsin).

You aren’t going to get good snow ratios with those thermals. Pope says no, and he’s been right all year. We give him a lot of shit, but it is clear at this point that the Vatican has a pretty damn good meteorology program. I don’t even think the H5 look is all that great for us, it screams inland runner. Then on top of that all the cold air is in Siberia. Up and in is where we look for whos getting the snow.

If a more phased solution for this one is good for the later threat, im all for ramming this fucker into Buffalo.

It’s a great run but I’d pump the breaks on blizzard potential in SNE, for CNE and NNE absolutely. I’m still going to track it though, I would be happy to be proven wrong about this winter.

I’m leaning towards an inland runner but maybe the 1/23 storm (which looks like it will run inland) can drag the boundary south. It’s a long shot due to the unfavorable western ridge axis, but hey at least it has a low. Should be good for NNE, for us in SNE with this setup we need a few things to break right.

Kevs forecast might be right

I think it’s going to be a strong El Niño, not a moderate one next winter so my analogs are less favorable. Hopefully I’m as accurate as my forecasts this winter have been.

02-03 was really good, 86-87 and 02-03 were around average.

I agree, for my area I decided to close the shades until the winter of 2024-2025 (at least for big winter potential). Sometimes we see a dominant storm track lock in and when that happens, it’s tough to break. In 2015 that benefited us, this year, the storm track is west of us (reminds me of 2018-2019). The western ridge axis is just way too far west this year, it’s an up and in winter. Then next winter we have an El Niño coming off a 3 year Nina, which often end up strong. I don’t think my area will see even 30 inches of snow next winter, strong ninos favor NYC south and don’t have a very high SNE ceiling. This winter I’m expecting to finish around 30 inches (as bad as things have been, it’s not a 2011-2012 or 2019-2020 level bad pattern). The polar vortex is expected to weaken the end of Jan, so im thinking maybe mid Feb is when things flip to a more favorable look for us. Probably too late to even get to climo totals never mind surpassing them, but could be enough to prevent a ratter.