George001

It’s a good sign that the long range models aren’t going ballistic with the nino despite the rapid warming in the enso region (especially 1.2 and 3). The nino will probably be quite powerful, but like you said in earlier posts that doesn’t mean winters over. Just gotta get the nino to move west, 2002-2003 was borderline strong and it was still a great winter for SNE.

Ok, I looked at the actual data from the NWS for BOS from the winter of 2007-2008 to the winter of 2014-2015, as well as the timeframe starting with the winter of 2015-2016 to the present. Since 1890, Boston has averaged 49.2 inches of snow per year, so over an average 7 year period Boston would get 344.2 inches of snow. 2008-2015: 476 inches, for an average of 68 inches of snow per year 2016-2023: 291.8 inches, for an average of 41.69 inches of snow per year Ok, the data didn’t exactly prove me right, but it also suggests that you are wrong in your claim that we have been lucky since 2016. During the 2016-2023, Boston averaged 41.69 inches, or 84.74% of climo snowfall. That’s a bad stretch, but anywhere near extreme like I implied in my earlier posts. So yeah, I was wrong about my claim that the recent 7 year period was “historically bad” snow wise. However, it was also wrong to say we have been “lucky” since 2016. Now the 2008-2015 timeframe? Boston averaged 68 inches, or 138.2% of climo so we hit the fucking jackpot during those years. In terms of snow totals, If you say we’ve been lucky the past 15-20 years? Yep we have been. If you say we’ve been lucky the past 7 years? While it hasn’t been as snowless as I implied, we’ve been getting boned too.

Im going to be honest, I didn’t actually dive into the numbers, was mostly going off memory (which can and did fail me for some of those earlier winters). I’ll dive into the numbers and update that earlier post with more accurate information.

I haven’t actually pulled the numbers yet, but I’d bet they will say my area has been both above average in temp and below average snow the past 7 years. I will acknowledge that we haven’t gotten boned AS much as your area and west of the river has, but it’s been a very tame stretch. If you want to actually quantify this to prove me wrong, how would calculating the snow for the last 7 years, and then comparing it to the previous 7 years, and then comparing it to the average 7 year span sound? That won’t be perfect (because my area is a bit more inland and SW) but close enough imo.

SE Mass has not “done well” or gotten “lucky” since 2015. It’s been a sea of warmth with one or two good years mixed in. No winter enthusiast in SE Mass will look fondly over the 2016-2023 period, the 2008-2015 period was WAY better. Lets compare the 2: 2008-2015: 1 ratter (2011-2012) 2 epic winters (2010-2011, 2014-2015) 2 very good winters (2012-2013, 2013-2012 2 average winters (2008-2009, 2007-2008 1 below average winter (2009-2010) vs 2016-2023: 3 ratters (2015-2016, 2019-2020, 2022-2023) no epic winters (yuck) 1 very good winter (2017-2018) 2 average winters (2016-2017, 2021-2022) 2 below average winters (2020-2021, 2018-2019) So that is 4 above average winters, 2 average winters, and 2 below average winters for 2008-2015. I’d say we had a really nice run during that period, with plenty of severe blizzards and also it got….. cold. 2016-2023 on the other hand was historically bad for winter enthusiasts in SE Mass, with 5 below average winters, 2 average winters, and only 1 above average winter! If you strictly measure by seasonal snow totals it can be argued I’m being too harsh on the 2016-2023 period, but snowpack and cold matter as well when evaluating how “good” a winter has been as a winter enthusiast. The whole “We’ve been lucky in SE Mass the past several years” talk is complete nonsense. It’s been a historically unfavorable stretch for winter enthusiasts for all of SNE. Im all for embracing the weather we get, but the whole downplaying how unfavorable the past 7 winters has been from a winter enthusiast standpoint is very strange.

I hope it trends into a massive cutter and we get warmth and rain (low in Chicago). The Canadian had that a couple of runs ago. It may not end up doing that, but it will come north. The low will plow inland, it’s not going to stay offshore with the SE ridge in place on the models.

I do track rainstorms too so I might start one if the signal strengthens. Cold and snow was nowhere to be found this “winter”, so I decided why not start tracking rainstorms?

Outside of elevation this is a rainstorm for SNE, same issues as last storm plus climo is more unfavorable now. Euro clown gives me 8 inches of snow. I don’t buy that at all, I strongly believe I won’t even see a single flake, never mind 8 inches of snow.

Looks like last week again with a big elevation event on the gfs. That gradient near Worcester was insane, just 10 or so miles between nearly 2 feet and just a few inches.

You know what would be really interesting? If this nino develops into a super nino, but also goes from east based to a modoki. 2009-2010 was a strong modoki but I don’t think we’ve ever had a super modoki nino, really strong events are usually more east based just like how most strong ninas are normally west based.

The anger towards the north will continue to build.

If we get an east based nino that would make it what 8 consecutive winters that finish AN for the DJF average temp in New England? That’s gotta be a record.

No high to the north again, I’m not falling for this one. Rain for everyone outside elevation and way north if we get a storm. Lets get modeled temps in the low 20s and high teens and then I’ll start getting excited for eastern mass snow potential (so, not until 2024).

In a few days that low will be over Montreal

Too warm, looks more rainy than anything.

It’s definitely east based now but yeah it’s unclear whether it will stay that way or turn into a modoki. The more important takeaway here is the El Niño events that did build from east to west historically have been quite strong. There are a lot of signs this El Niño will be a strong one, coming off a 3 year Nina, MJO on roids during the seasonal change, all the warmth in the subsurface, etc. we also haven’t had a big nino since 2015-2016.

The Pope did a great job with his forecasts this winter, I have to give credit where it’s due. Analogs and the long range models are good tools but the Pope correctly assessed that the presence of geese in November was a red flag. Animals have no sense of the calendar, the way they tell the seasons are changing is based off the present weather, the landscape, etc. Being able to accurately prepare for the change of seasons is literally a matter of life and death for animals, as they are forced to endure a level of exposure to the elements that we have the luxury of avoiding. They are far more in tune with the elements than we are, so I do think seasonal forecasters would benefit from incorporating analysis of animal behavior into their forecasts. Yeah it’s a strange method yeah, but if it works it works. I thought it was dumb at first too, but throughout the winter it became more and more clear that I was being too closed minded. Instead of just discounting something because it seems dumb, strange, or is telling us something we don’t want to hear, it’s good to keep an open mind.

Yeah I’m at the point where I’d rather have it be warm and sunny unless we get a massive early spring blizzard. Since that isn’t happening I’m rooting for it to get nice and toasty. I’d rather have 50s and sunny than 3-6 inches that just melts the next day.

Even if it does amplify the high to the north leaves so it’s too warm. Winters over, just wasn’t our year. Massive trough camping out west all winter with record snows in California tells us all we need to know.

Yeah just the day before the storm they had Boston at 8-12 and they didn’t even get an inch. Just a few degrees too warm, the dual low scenario screwed us in eastern mass. If it stayed one low we would have gotten a lot more than we did.

It will come way north imo, the trough goes back out west and the blocking is too weak. It’s possible things break right but I would much rather have a good pacific and bad Atlantic than what we have now. Blocking helps but the pacific is a lot more important. I’m ready to move on to spring, hopefully we get a west based moderate or weaker nino next year.

Yeah the snow underperformed here as well, I only got a couple of inches. I’m ready to move on to rooting for record heat. I hope we break 100 this summer.

Why do you track storms if you don’t enjoy it?

The snow aspect of the storm didn’t really pan out here but this storm was far from a disappointment. We got nearly a months worth of rain in just 2 days, that’s really fucking cool. Easily one of the most fun events I’ve tracked in the last decade with all the uncertainty.

Most of the accumulating snow in eastern mass is supposed to be tonight. I’m not giving up yet though I will admit things don’t look great right now.