George001

Euro has a Miller B

He is 100% correct, the pattern looks very similar to early December with a strong block and trough out west. However, that doesn’t mean we are going to get the same results. Wavelengths are shorter in March and the ssts aren’t nearly as warm as they were in December. There is also the probability aspect of it, if you get that pattern in Dec 10 times do we go snowless 10 times, or did we get unlucky in a favorable pattern? No pattern has a 100% success rate.

If it’s extreme cold yeah, it seems that now if the pattern is even the slightest bit unfavorable we get extreme warmth. It looks like the acceleration of climate change is a big reason why we are seeing so many extreme warm anomalies but very few extreme cold ones. Even out west has not been as cold as we were warm, and the trough has been parked over there the entire winter. I don’t understand how people can see this shit and then say “Welp there isn’t enough evidence that climate change is real and accelerating, it’s just cyclical”. Yes, weather is cyclical but this extreme warmth goes far beyond cyclical variation or natural change in the climate. This isn’t normal in any way whatsoever, I’m sorry but people who think this is just natural fluctuation or cyclical have their heads stuck up their asses, or are making big $$$ from oil companies. You bring up a good point about relying on old analogs and the issues that come with it due to our climate being warmer than it used to be.

Yeah, we haven’t had a potent nino for a while now. Last time we had a nino exceed moderate strength was 2015-2016, 7 years ago. It likely won’t be quite that strong, but coming off a 3 year Nina I think there is a good chance it will exceed at least moderate strength. We won’t know for sure until May or June though.

2C? Damn that’s super nino territory

I’ve gotten burned in these swfes ripping and reading 10:1 snow maps. Those are especially horrible for these because they count all frozen precip as snow. That’s fine when you are getting all snow, but when you are getting sleet and or ice (which my area especially often does in these setups) 10:1 maps significantly overestimate snow totals.

I saw in your blog that you mentioned concern about the mid levels tracking well inland, which isn’t a good setup for big snows in SNE. It looks like your first call is going to end up being the right idea. That goes to show that the models are good if used correctly, rather than just ripping and reading 10:1 snow maps. That’s why I was skeptical of those gfs 10:1 snow maps that gave even my area a foot. I saw the image on your blog of the mid level low going into Canada and lowered my expectations for snow accordingly (for this threat). The models are still waffling around some so I’m not really sure if for my area I should expect more sleet or ice.

Kev, do you still think you are getting an ice storm? Or are you having second thoughts?

High 30s and rain isn’t far from low 30s and heavy wet snow. I’d love for us to get that type of pattern, we have an outside chance of getting buried due to a bowling ball low, and even if that doesn’t pan out we get a shitload of rain. Tracking rainstorms is fun too, and there is nothing better than going fishing right after a big rainstorm. At least for me that is when I have my best luck with catching monster bass. Regardless, there isn’t anything we can do about it so there isn’t any point in getting upset about it.

Ah damn it, I busted. Yes, I didn’t get 4-8 inches of snow and I’m not going to. There is a dusting outside right now, and it doesn’t look like we are getting much more. I was so sure this was coming north, but I guess the low was just too weak. Oh well, it happens to the best of us. On to the next threat!

I think Kev has the right idea. We will get an ice storm. The north trends will mean more ice than sleet.

Also isn’t East based blocking better for New England than west based? I thought west based was better for the mid Atlantic, and south based just shoves the cold SW while we roast and rain. North based has the highest ceiling, with some of the biggest New England blizzards occurring with north based blocking. Correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s how I thought it worked.

I would think a trough out west with strong blocking would be good for us in New England, but it depends on where the blocking sets up. The blocking was south based in December and that is horrible, we want North based blocking.

The models are struggling with the blocking. The trough out west isn’t going anywhere but I think they will correct to a broad conus trough rather than blocking and an se ridge. I don’t think it makes a whole lot of sense to have strong se ridging and blocking at the same time. I could be wrong, but I really don’t think we are getting a repeat of December. In March the wavelengths are shorter, so even if we do get the same pattern the results will likely end up being better. This winter has sucked but when we see blocking like this the potential is extremely high.

Didn’t March 2018 also have a trough out west? There can be a trough in both the east and west.

Where’s my snow? There is barely anything outside!

Anyways, back to weather it looks like the gfs came north for Thursday.

I thought you were out of line, I strongly believe you should not say anything online to someone that you wouldn’t say to their face. If you freely go around telling people you don’t like to get back on their bi polar meds to their faces, you would probably get your face caved in.

I don’t think accusing someone of being bipolar and “off their meds” is a comparison. You are just being a dick for no reason because my posts annoy you, that’s it, and you used mental illness as an insult. What a bitch move pretending you were making a “comparison” rather than just being a dick because you don’t like my posts. Im with you on the anti PC thing though, so how about this? There is nothing I hate more than fake “tough guys” hiding behind a keyboard and talking shit. At the next GTG, you and me meet outside half an hour early and settle our differences with our fists. If you show up and win the fight, then maybe I’ll start listening to what you have to say. If not, I don’t ever want to see your miserable ass replying to my posts again. You don’t reply to my posts, and I won’t reply to yours.

It’s coming tomorrow. With every run the storm keeps trending more north.

It will come north, but the rgem has a warm bias with surface temps. Looks like a lot of ice and sleet for many areas in SNE.

Btw, that making fun of mental illness nonsense was unnecessary. People actually struggle with that shit you know, it’s not a joke. Seriously, go fuck yourself for that.

Get lost dipshit, I never said winter was over. I said this winter has been snowless and mild, which it has. So I got excited about rain, because guess what, you can’t control the weather so you may as well enjoy the weather you get.

I’ve been burnt quite a bit after making posts like this, but man the upcoming pattern looks exciting. Better than anything we have seen all winter. I could be conservative and say “tamed down 2018, etc”, but fuck that! Extreme weather can and does happen, and there are signs that it’s coming on the models. Im calling for eastern Mass to finish the season with above normal snowfall, that’s how much snow I think we will get in March based on the recent guidance. Yes, there is a western trough but with the strong blocking expected to develop the SE ridge will be suppressed south with a broad conus trough in place. I’d rather we get cold and snow spread out throughout the winter with a snowpack built up, but it is what it is. If this pattern delivers to it’s potential it’s going to be one hell of a month.

It’s been a while since I saw something that excited me on the models, but this upcoming period looks like it could be something special. This threat and the following 2 aren’t even SSW driven, but it looks like that is going to come down in March. Sometimes it doesn’t ever come down, but I really think it will this year based on what I’m seeing on the models for early March.