George001

With the super nino coming I could see a similar scenario to 2009-2010 if there is a lot of blocking. Probably a warmer version, being that the nino will be quite a bit stronger and climate change, but same general idea. Not quite 2009-2010 level, but decently AN snowfall departures in the mid Atlantic while my area in SNE is well BN.

I posted that in the wrong sub forum lol, where I live it was the exact opposite. Boxing Day 2010 was a huge blizzard in SNE, and so was snowquestor. 2009-2010 was the heart wrencher for us. You guys in the mid atl got buried while we got skunked via a couple storms hitting a brick wall and sliding OTS from the blocking, and then we had the snowicane which had that almost straight N/S gradient. It’s interesting how 2009-2010 were almost the exact opposite, 2009-2010 buried you guys and skunked us while 2010-2011 buried us and skunked you guys.

I agree, I’m thinking a good 4 months of super nino conditions. October, November, December, and January. Even Feb is possible if the nino is slower to weaken than expected which happens sometimes.

What would you say a reasonable lower and upper end outcome for this nino is now based on the latest developments? I am expecting another bump in the guidance next month based on how aggressive the warming has been recently. I would say the probability of this being a strong nino at the peak is rapidly declining. Super is looking more and more likely.

Damn, people get really passionate about enso. I get being excited about the developing El Niño, but there’s no need to be at each others throats over a difference of opinion ya know? Strong and super are both still on the table. Weak is not, and I would take a moderate peak off the table as well now. The nino is already in high end moderate territory but there is still some unknown to how strong it will get at the peak. I would say the range of outcomes is +1.8 at the low end to +2.6 at the high end (I’m leaning towards us meeting in the middle at +2.2, a solid super peak). It is weather after all, and the one thing I learned from my years of tracking is I don’t know shit. That’s part of the fun of tracking, it’s so unpredictable.

2010-2011>>>>>>>>2009-2010, It’s not even close.

Super by October?

That is true, even the best get things wrong sometimes. That said, I still give Raindance full credit for last winter because he went really aggressive and forecasted near record warmth for my area with below normal snow, and that is what happened. Im not saying the NAO doesn’t matter, but the past few years taught me that the pacific is more important for my area than the Atlantic. I’d weight it something like 80% pacific 20% Atlantic. North Atlantic blocking “ups the ante” and leads to strong slow moving storms with loads of precip, but if the pacific doesn’t cooperate it’s just going to be a lot of rain. The pacific pattern is what determines our temp profiles. I’ll take a quick mover with arctic air in place over a slow moving marginal bomb reliant on “creating its own cold air” any day! I’ve been burned by taking the cheese on the whole “it will create its own cold” thing a million times over the past few years.

He is definitely warm biased (but so is the climate to be fair), but he knows his shit. He just likes warmer weather, there isn’t anything wrong with that. When it comes to seasonal forecasts though, Raindance is the guy to listen to due to his track record. His preliminary forecast has most of New England (especially coastal SNE) with below average snowfall. My area he has at 60% of average. With the super nino -PDO combo in place that makes a lot of sense, historically that is a really unfavorable pattern for us. Super ninos are warm everywhere, but the reason they are so terrible in New England vs the mid Atlantic is with the juiced STJ you get more Miller As rather than Miller Bs. Those can be good up here, but often we are in the screw zone in those storms due to the best dynamics being to the south (load blown southwest), and stronger ones will often hug the coast or even run inland a bit, which is when our eastern longitude screws us. A good example of this Miller A coastal SNE screw job is the 2010 snowicane, big rainstorm in Boston while NYC gets buried with a 2ft blizzard. If you have too much blocking, they bury the mid Atlantic with ridiculous amounts of snow and then go OTS or scrape us. The thing is though, I would not be panicking at all if I lived in the mid Atlantic. Those same Miller As that screw us can and often are really good for the mid Atlantic, and the mid Atlantic only needs one big storm to exceed climo (very common in super ninos). It all depends on where you live. I just happen to live in an area that does poorly in super ninos so I am pessimistic about this winter for my area.

What’s the correlation coefficient for this?

Name one super nino that had above average snow in SNE, mid Atlantic sure but SNE and New England does poorly in super ninos due to big storms missing south (raging STJ is better for mid Atlantic, northern stream driven Miller Bs are better for SNE). Also, mild pacific air flooding the nation with warmth makes the overall pattern unfavorable for a run of smaller storms and sustained snowpack.

If the nino was going to be strong maybe, but it’s going to be super. That leads to a warm pattern in the east.

Not necessarily true. Some of it is at night yes, but not enough to justify a forecast of even average snowfall for the Boston area with a +4 to +5 temp profile. It’s possible sure, but I would bet on well BN snowfall in the Boston area if we get a +4-5 temp profile in SNE. Now if it’s +2 DJF and the bulk of that is during December, that’s a completely different story. I’m expecting it to be much warmer, but I will acknowledge that is within the realm of possibilities.

1997-1998 and 1972-1973 come to mind, both of which are valid analogs for this season. 97-98 might have had 3, but I’m not sure. Besides, one biggie and 3 advisory events would only get us to climo IF said biggie crushes us. It could easily miss to the south like they often do in strong or super ninos.

Easier said than done to get several advisory events on top of your one biggie that comes with many big nino events (not even a given, just a higher probability than normal) if the temp profile for DJF is +4-+5 (which is what I’m expecting).

Im sure we will have a decent stretch in there, but im expecting it to be more 2015-2016, 2018-2019, etc than 2002-2003.

No, im being realistic and stopped wishcasting. My area averages 40-50 inches of snow per year. I expect 20-30 inches this year with well AN temps, which I think is more than reasonable for a super nino with a -PDO (most good nino analogs are +PDO). Will we have big winters in the future? Yes, but I just don’t think this winter is our year. There is nothing wrong with that.

According to NOAA enso 3.4 averaged +1.3 this past week. That is in line with the more aggressive guidance and puts this nino on track to become strong by September, and super by November.

Normal snowfall for New England in a super nino pattern? I don’t know about that. One storm won’t take us to or over climo like the mid Atlantic. One big storm in a sea of warmth won’t get it done for us.

Ah, well in that case I don’t know about that. I would think it has somewhat of an east tilt even if it does go basin wide based on what Paul Roundy said about how this El Niño is developing.

Nino 1.2 is +3.3, which is well into super territory. Even nino 3 is +1.8, which is high end strong. Nino 3.4 and 4 are moderate and high end weak respectively. You bring up a valid point though, it isn’t as east based as 1997-1998. It’s technically going to be considered basin wide simply because the nino itself is so strong it has no choice but to engulf the whole region, but I do think it will stay east leaning based on what Paul Roundy said.

If we end up at +1.6 ONI yeah I could see maybe a slightly warmer version of his outlook coming to fruition, but the issue is the nino is already +1.2 and it’s only August. Based on that and the recent guidance, it’s probably going to end up more like +2.2 or something. Thats not moderate or even strong, it is super. Super nino = torch in the east.

Maybe not a full on ratter like last year, but since it will be a super nino I would think it makes sense to favor above normal temps and below normal snow for all of SNE until proven otherwise.

I don’t know, the rule of thumb I heard reading seasonal forecasts over the years is Super nino = blowtorch in New England. I don’t buy that we will get both a super nino and a snowy winter regardless of what models show right now. I took the cheese last year when I ignored the modoki nina (unfavorable enso configuration), I’m not doing it again. The nino IS building from east to west just like Paul Roundy said, and the guidance has trended towards a super peak. I just don’t buy that we can have both an east based super nino and a cold, snowy winter in the east. The forcing will move.

Regardless, it will be a super nino. The classical super nino forecast is a blowtorch winter with an increased chance at one huge storm (like 2015-2016). That seems like a reasonable expectation for this coming winter.