George001

That might be the best Euro run we’ve had yet for this event.

What does the 925mb temps look like

That’s true, we got unlucky with the pattern in December, and March is to be decided but the confluence being too strong for wave 1 and too weak for wave 2 is just rotten luck. However, we also had a shitty longwave pattern in the heart of winter, it feels like we had a bad pattern overall and the bad luck we got took us from below average to rat. Ray has some good information on his blog about enso structure, and he mentioned that the 2 worst enso state+structure combinations we can get are an East based nino and a modoki (west based) Nina. These effects are amplified when the enso event is stronger and well coupled. A moderate or stronger modoki Nina is bad news if you are looking for cold and snow in the east. We basically had the same enso configuration as 2011-2012.

Man I can’t wait for a potent west based nino to develop, hopefully that will mean we won’t need to worry about cold air every storm threat. For now I’d like to just get one big snow to end this non winter. We have the MJO going into 8 and 1 at a high amplitude so that should lead to a couple chances after this threat.

I hope I’m wrong, but even the most explosive runs don’t have the temp getting below 34 or so for my area, and the kuchera maps were a lot less snowy than the 10:1 maps. For the thermal gradient issue, isn’t that how coastal areas get our biggest March blizzards? The clash of cold air to the north with warmer ocean temps?

In Boston yeah you are probably fucked with this one. For us in coastal areas and interior SE Mass we need a high to the north to bring the cold air in, otherwise we will end up with a cold rain and if it does flip due to dynamics, the snow ratios will be low. The lack of cold also leads to a weaker thermal gradient, which will make it tougher to get the low to bomb out enough. Inland is a different story, there is more room for error there but I’d be shocked if either of us get a plowable snow from this. The models seem to be locked in on the airmass being warm. That doesn’t mean it’s time to punt winter though, we still have a couple weeks left before climo becomes too unfavorable and we are done with threats.

We need more cold air to build in

Damn, 30 inches in western mass. It looks like whoever is NW of the rain snow line is going to get buried.

A low in central Mass isn’t what we want to see if looking for snow, there’s no way around it. However it could be wrong, plenty of time for changes 5 days out. It’s a possible solution for sure, but if we get a high to the north to start building in that would help.

Inland track and no high to the north

There isn’t anything we can do about it, so we may as well embrace the warmth. Our winters have been getting warmer and warmer as climate change continues to accelerate, and that will only continue. Join the dark side, and start rooting for record heat.

The Canadian is a thing of beauty, nice and toasty.

Cmon man, why you gotta diss the Navy?

Big 0z runs tonight. I’d like to see some signs of a high pressure to the north building in, even if it’s a very weak one.

We need a high to the north for Boston and other areas close to the coast. It’s a long shot imo but who knows, a high to the north might appear in the short range. Right now it looks like the type of storm where Boston gets barely anything and just inland gets a decent amount.

Yep that’s a tick north, also noticed there were more inland members.

Gefs is way north

He’s been very quiet today with the other guidance trending towards the Euro and the Euro doubling down.

We need that high over the Midwest to slide east faster

That’s a lot of snow

Starts as rain yeah but changes over to heavy wet snow as the low bombs out.

Euro looks really good

Yeah a 990 mb low in central Mass isn’t going to cut it. The Canadian and gefs look great though

Yep less inland lows

Where do you want the low to go