George001

Yeah with that setup we are going to taint eventually, but I’m hoping we can get a few inches of front end and avoid the torch for a net gain.

For the 10th threat, what are some things to look for that would lead to a more wintry outcome?

I agree 100% with suppression not being the main threat especially for the coastal plain. My gut feeling is we will be fighting ptype issues, with biggest snows inland.

HOLY SHIT THATS WAY NORTH

Looks like an all or nothing pattern. If 1/7 whiffs south we are cooked, but if it goes way north a wintry solution for 1/10 is back on the table.

Navy is also north

Canadian looks great, I hope it’s right. Gfs is weak and strung out.

Yeah we need a later phase to prevent the low from gaining latitude in the Midwest.

Gfs improved for the 10th

I disagree, the 10th matters. Rooting for a net gain.

Yeah, low in Wisconsin.

Canadian bumped north

It will come north, I believe the low will ram into SEMA.

I want a hugger track for 2 reasons. One is that the models that are more north (12z Euro) have a better outcome for the following storm. I have 0 interest in a foot of snow that only lasts 3 days before getting washed away. I would rather get 4 inches of snow with some sleet and maybe ice on top of that snowpack and have a better shot at maintaining a snowpack after the follow up wave. The Euro would be a net gain here, yeah I’m going to mix in both storms if it’s right but that’s a better outcome than a full blown cutter after the 7th storm. The second reason is I am going to be spending a lot of time up north to ski, so I want ski areas to do well.

No it won’t be all snow but I could still get a few inches like the Euro shows with a hugger track. I want that fucker to ram into SE MA, and then keep going north into Maine. We are in the game in this pattern, but realistically we aren’t going to avoid taint at some point. I do not expect both the 7th and 10th to be all snow for either of us. Not with that negative PNA.

I want the Euro to be right. Low right over Tblizz’s noggin. I’m with Torch Tiger, I want the low to trend more north.

I’m tracking these threats too, but let’s be honest the Pope knows his shit. If I were to tell you I wasn’t concerned at all about the Pope not being on board, I would be lying.

Am I the only one still watching the 4th? It is too far SE on the models and has been trending in the wrong direction, but it’s still 4 days out. It’s a long shot, but I’m not writing it off yet.

I disagree, a washout would be a disaster for ski areas.

The 7th jumped way north on the models. I’d like to see that trend continue.

With ensemble snow means i feel like the snowfall distribution is just as important if not more important than the amounts. The gefs has heavier snows inland and in the mountains with less along the coastline. That’s a strong signal for a hugger track, not a coastal scraper or southern slider.

Straight up looks like I hacked the gfs and ran it out of my basement. Snows EAST of the low!

Holy shit. The pattern on the 18z gfs is a thing of beauty. Actual fucking COLD!

I’ve been very pessimistic about the pattern since December, but we have 3 legitimate threats to track. 5th, 7th, and then the 10th. I would like to see a bit more cold air, but it’s workable.

It will come north.