George001

That’s the goal, while being a weenie is fun sometimes constant wishcasting doesn’t really contribute to the discussion. Nobody wants to hear “blizzard incoming” and get a few inches of slush a couple days later. I’m starting to find that it’s more enjoyable to track when I’m actually being realistic and objective. Just because a couple runs of the gfs had a Miller B with 12+ inches of snow and no mixing whatsoever for my area doesn’t mean it’s time to start calling for a blizzard. A lack of high pressure to the north and east or southeast winds ripping over us at the height of the storm doesn’t exactly scream big snow, regardless of what the clown maps say.

Man, seeing the other side of it really puts it into perspective how obnoxious I was when I was calling for blizzards really far out. It’s best to just keep an open mind to a wide range of outcomes at this stage.

The Pope doesn’t always tell us what we want to hear, but unlike qqomega he knows his shit.

Looks like an inch or so of snow and sleet here. The TV mets had the right idea going with the more conservative guidance, and if anything I ended up on the low end of the 1-3 I was expected to get (was briefly upped to 3-5, then taken back down after some north ticks close in). Still was a fun storm to track though, despite my area never really being in the mix for big snows due to the temp issues.

Euro and Canadian have a Miller B

Gfs did shift se a bit….. from low in central Wisconsin to low in southeastern Wisconsin.

I don’t see a problem with pointing out that there is cutter risk, but when the models were showing a blizzard qqomega didn’t say anything, he only starts posting when the models look warm and rainy. He needs to stop lying to others and himself. We all know how much he loves warmer weather, he should just own it like Torch Tiger does.

yeah, that’s a big jump NW on the gfs. Low in Wisconsin.

I don’t agree that it’s necessarily a problem. It increases the cutter risk yes, but even if that happens there isn’t anything wrong with that. The favorable pattern increases the chance of getting a big storm, which is exactly what I’m looking for. I’d love to get a blizzard don’t get me wrong, but if we get a massive cutter to Chicago that would also be really exciting. Heavy rain, 60 degrees and strong winds is nothing to scoff at.

It did, gfs was more north

It’s not happening this year, but I would love a March 2012 redux. Unfortunately I wasn’t able to appreciate it when it happened because back then I only liked cold and snow, but now that I like warmer weather that month would be just as fun to experience as March 2018 was.

Agree, I’m really looking forward to spring and the warmth that comes with it. Can’t wait for us to start going into the 80s regularly, bass love the heat. I just started getting into saltwater fishing last year, trying to catch that first monster striper.

Went from offshore to central PA to Chicago in just a few runs. This solution would be nice and toasty verbatim.

Euro looks more north

The Canadian does run the low inland, but it still snows east of the low.

For what it’s worth, last night I saw a rabbit. That is making me lean more north/less snow for my area.

Way north, and the crazy thing is the hrrr has a south and cold bias at this range. It may end up even more north than that.

Yeah it wouldn’t be snowy for us but still a very impressive storm with heavy rain and wind. I would still consider the pattern a success if that happens. It’s a possible outcome but without a massive trough in the west and MJO in phase 8 by then there is room for that to be more south and east. The EPS shows that, while there are some inland members as well as offshore ones, the mean is maybe 50 miles NW of the benchmark and is 993mb. That’s a really strong signal this far out.

Damn, Euro moved way north for the 10th-11th threat. Low plows straight into central PA, strong storm too.

These 0z runs show why qqomega jumped the gun saying that mid March looked boring. Just like that, a low appeared on the OP runs! I wouldn’t call it a blizzard, but a nice moderate snowfall is very possible. Even if it doesn’t pan out, we are tracking a storm. Not boring at all.

Yep, the NAM being that far north this close in is a red flag. It could be wrong yeah, but it’s very much a possible outcome. The other models may not be picking up the convection as well as the NAM is.

Yeah, Boston usually gets screwed with the East wind. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get like 2-3 and 10 miles NW ends up with 8 or something. Still a lot of uncertainty though, if the NAM is right Boston gets nothing.

Gfs looks about the same

I would sign up for that, one big storm and then bring on the warmth.

Canadian ticked south too