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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. I used to be like that, only care what my backyard gets but I came to terms with my climo. I basically live in the ocean, but when I ski I go up north so I care how the ski areas are doing. So I’m ok with my area getting rain while NNE gets buried. I would much rather have a strong low plowing into western mass leaving me with rain than a mid Atlantic blizzard where I get fringed with a few inches of sand.
  2. Is that what I think it is? The winds are insane, 50+mph gusts during the height of the storm.
  3. What the fuck that’s snow for everywhere but the cape and islands
  4. Looks like it’s stalling over the canal, that’s a burial.
  5. Yeah the eps has a mean of 12+ In those areas, that’s insane especially this far out. Imo those numbers will bump up even more, and for us on the warm side of the storm we will see a cutback in the mean.
  6. Ok that makes sense, when the low hooks into eastern mass I’m raining but I get some snow after the low moves out on the backside.
  7. That seems off, how do I get half a foot of snow with that low track? I would think I’m all rain if the low goes west of Boston.
  8. Eh some of the guidance runs the low inland, it’s not just the Icon. Canadian has the low plowing into central mass, geps and eps have a lot of inland members as well. Icon is the western end of the envelope, while it’s not a good model it does have some support. My gut instinct is that they meet in the middle and the low tracks just east of Worcester, but the goalposts are still fairly wide.
  9. Yep looks like most guidance is favoring a hugger track. Gfs was way east for a bit but it caved to the Euro today. Some models have the low in Western Mass, others over the cape. That will make a big difference for areas close to the low track.
  10. What a bomb on the icon, low stalls over western mass like the Euro last night.
  11. March 2012 was amazing. It got up to the mid 80s where I live. These past few winters have been really warm, but March 2012 was another level. Legit sustained 70s and 80s, not just a couple of really warm days. I didn’t appreciate it back then, but i would love a repeat of that.
  12. I’m still keeping an eye on this one. If the north trends continue SE Mass will be in the game.
  13. The eps has a lot of snow fairly close to the coast considering the low locations, interesting. Almost seems like an all or nothing type deal, with those inland lows giving us nothing or nearly nothing and the offshore ones being a burial.
  14. That might be the best Euro run we’ve had yet for this event.
  15. That’s true, we got unlucky with the pattern in December, and March is to be decided but the confluence being too strong for wave 1 and too weak for wave 2 is just rotten luck. However, we also had a shitty longwave pattern in the heart of winter, it feels like we had a bad pattern overall and the bad luck we got took us from below average to rat. Ray has some good information on his blog about enso structure, and he mentioned that the 2 worst enso state+structure combinations we can get are an East based nino and a modoki (west based) Nina. These effects are amplified when the enso event is stronger and well coupled. A moderate or stronger modoki Nina is bad news if you are looking for cold and snow in the east. We basically had the same enso configuration as 2011-2012.
  16. Man I can’t wait for a potent west based nino to develop, hopefully that will mean we won’t need to worry about cold air every storm threat. For now I’d like to just get one big snow to end this non winter. We have the MJO going into 8 and 1 at a high amplitude so that should lead to a couple chances after this threat.
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