George001

I don’t think that is likely being 2 years removed from 3 consecutive La Ninas. A second year nino is more likely, especially if this nino doesn’t become a super event. I think something like this is more likely: year 1- strong east based El Niño (EP) year 2- central based weak El Niño (CP) year 3- strong La Niña

Dynamical guidance is up to a peak ONI of 1.81, not backing down at all. Whether it’s high end strong or low end super, either way it’s going to be a big one.

All that red on the map makes me want to vomit

That is very possible. The next IRI update will be very telling. The nino hasn’t been strengthening much in the Enso 3.4 region in July like some of the guidance had, but it has been strengthening in the enso 3 and 1.2 region. Could be a delayed but not denied thing when it comes to significant 3.4 strengthening.

I believe this event will peak earlier, in October. I do agree with you that we will be in a strong El Niño by fall though, I’m just not sold on additional strengthening into December. My thinking is a peak of around +1.8, so high end strong, but I’m becoming more open to the idea of a low end super nino. Either way, El Niño will be a significant pattern driver during the winter. That said, we are getting to the point where a moderate peak is becoming increasingly unlikely. Paul Roundy has been saying that the warmth in enso 3 and 1.2 will build west, which will strengthen the El Niño further. Considering the nino is already borderline moderate by ONI it’s safe to say that this El Niño will NOT be weak.

I agree. I know there is a lot of hype about every enso event, but I am a strong believer in this El Niño. I think it will continue to grow, the question is will it peak in October or later (November/December). If it keeps growing until December I think we will see a peak of around +2.0-2.2, if it stops growing in October +1.4-1.6 makes sense. The models disagree right now but either way I think a strong El Niño is a good bet.

Yeah I don’t like how strong and how east based this El Niño is. Statistically strong El Niños are the second worst enso state for the Boston area snowfall wise, with the worst being super. This doesn’t take structure into account so it’s not good to take it as gospel, but when we have a strong or super nino AND the structure is unfavorable, that’s not good no matter how you look at it. As big of a weenie as I am, even I’m concerned.

A lot of posters are interested in the implications that El Niño will have on winter, myself included. That said, yeah these models should be taken with a grain of salt. I wouldn’t say it’s wishcasting though, looking at the temp and precip anomalies the latest cansips is slightly above normal temps and normal precip looking at the DJF average. That would imply a below average-average winter in terms of snowfall, a far cry from many of Bastardis analogs (2002-2003, 2009-2010 for the mid Atlantic, etc). Either way, It’s going to look completely different next run. In my opinion those maps are meaningless unless it’s for the next month, and even that can be way off sometimes. Anyways, back to the developing El Niño, this is going to be a big month for narrowing the goalposts. If Paul Roundy is right, we will see significant warming this month and the nino will get to strong levels. If that happens, a super nino peak becomes much more likely. If the weaker models (ignoring the statistical models forecasting a weak nino, neutral or La Niña, it’s obvious those will be wrong based on the rapid warming in June) like the CFS are right, we could be looking at a moderate peak instead. My gut feeling right now is what will end up happening is somewhere in the middle, but closer to the high end outcome. Something like a +1.7-1.9 ONI peak, not quite super but still a high end strong event. Statistically, when we got this warm by June after coming off a La Niña, those El Niños ended up being quite powerful, with many strong and super ninos in the mix.

The bottom was the forecast for last years winter in June 2022, the top image is the forecast for the 2023-2024 winter.

Im concerned about the -PDO strong nino combination. 1972-1973 is considered an analog by experts like Raindance, which was somehow an even less snowy winter than last “winter”. Strong ninos aren’t favorable for my area historically, I’d be more excited if I lived NYC south. Even if the +3 that the Australian model is forecasting is bullshit (it is), even a +2 peak could be enough to torch our winter. Due to these factors I’m setting my expectations low, but if come November the Nino is something like +1.2-1.6 and is basin wide or west leaning I’ll become more optimistic. Not delusional like I was the past few years, just bumping up my expectations from ratter-below average to average-slightly above average.

Yeah I’m not buying the super nino talk, but that is exactly why I have low expectations for this coming winter. Even strong ninos arent very good for New England. I would be more excited if I lived in the mid Atlantic.

I read somewhere that one of the impacts of climate change is that more strong and super enso events are expected.

True. I am concerned that we are getting El Niño conditions this early, but even if it’s 2016 2.0 that was a way better winter than last. That was a regular mild below average snow winter, nothing crazy. Last winter was truly historic, one of the least snowy winters on record and one of the warmest winters on record.

I don’t like it, but I agree. My gut feeling is this will be an unfavorable nino for east coast snow weenies, whether it gets to super or not. I just don’t think Paul Roundy should be ignored, he is great and has been right about this El Niño event so far. He said it was going to be a big one that was building from east to west even when the models were saying weak nino. I was in denial, argued with you that the -PDO wouldn’t allow it to happen, etc. Well, a few months later and what happens? The models are now forecasting a strong nino, and the nino is indeed building from east to west! We are coming off a 3 year Nina, and it’s only June and we are already experiencing El Niño conditions. I’m starting to think moderate is off the table too and that the question is do we get a strong or super nino (I’m leaning strong, but low end super is becoming more realistic).

I’m keeping my expectations for this winter low with a big nino expected. I’m not going to let myself get sucked into the hype like I did the past few years. After the non winter we just had, give me an average winter and I’ll be happy with it. Nothing wrong with one big one, a couple cold stretches and a couple smaller storms.

Paul Roundy knows his shit. He’s been on board with a big event for a while now, considering nino 3.4 is already nearly +1 in June I think it’s safe to say he had the right idea, even if it doesn’t quite make it to super. At this point weak is off the table, and moderate is becoming more and more unlikely, +1 in June is really impressive.

Makes sense, Im looking forward to reading your blog next week and hearing your thoughts on the range of outcomes for this coming nino. I’m guessing the implications for winter are going to be that it won’t be a cold one, but higher KU potential. Hopefully the orientation of the nino is favorable and it doesn’t get too strong. There is such a big difference between say +6 or whatever last year was and say +2.

Ray, if the Nino exceeds 2.0 ONI but peaks early and is at around 1.5 ONI (basin wide) DJF what would that imply for our winter prospects? Would the early peak save us from the usual torch we see in super nino events, or would it be enough to fuck us over and cause another well AN winter in the east temp wise?

If the nino gets that strong well above normal temps and well below normal snow is a good bet, especially for SNE.

Super nino becoming more likely?

Yep and when it’s a La Niña his top 2 analogs are always 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. There are several issues with his forecasts that lead to an extreme cold and snowy bias. One of those issues is that he incorporates a bunch of old analogs, and fails to take into account the fact that the earth is much warmer than it used to be. Another issue is he makes false assumptions about ENSO, assuming ninos are going to be modoki when they aren’t, Ninas will be east based, etc. It is ridiculous to assume that the El Niño will be a modoki this early, technically we are still in enso neutral (will change soon though). He should at least wait and see how El Nino develops and progresses throughout the summer and fall before making definitive statements about whether it will be east based, modoki, basin wide etc. Last winter the La Niña was basin wide up until late December, then it shifted west and became a modoki. We had an unfavorable shift in the enso orientation in JANUARY that ended winter before it started, yet this clown is assuming the nino will be a modoki in June. It is simply way too early.

Makes sense. The nino has really taken off the past couple weeks (its progression is more in line with the aggressive dynamical models than the conservative statistical models). It’s now above +.6 in all 4 enso regions, it won’t happen right away but the important thing is that it’s a matter of when, not if.

No, high end moderate to strong. I don’t think it will quite get up to super, but a 1.4-1.8 ONI El Niño is no joke.

Paul Roundy thinks a super nino is coming. He’s not always right but the Nino is indeed building from east to west like he said, it’s already +.4 and not even June yet so there is plenty of time for the nino to drastically increase in strength. What is your current thoughts on the expected peak? I’m thinking a range of around +1.4 to +1.8.

In that case it holds even more weight. We are seeing more signs that indicate it’s worth getting excited about this nino, like the rapidly rising PDO, crashing SOI etc.