George001

The pattern this winter is an extreme one. I know there is a lot of talk about how the pattern has changed, but if you take a more broad view of the temp and precip profiles, it’s been pretty consistent. It has been very warm and extremely wet in New England. This winter so far has been one of the highest QPF winters on record, the issue is most of that QPF has been rain. The sample size is way too small to make conclusions, but 3/5 of the wettest Dec-Jans on record for Worcester were El Niños, and 2 of them were borderline super events (57-58 and this year). I know meaningful statistical analysis on a sample size of 5 isn’t something you can do, but I just found it kind of interesting.

You can recover from a bad Dec, but i would bet that if you looked at the winters that we got skunked in DEC, it’s a strong BN snow signal. The biggest reason is due to the fact that an average winter from Jan-Mar after a shitty Dec will result in below normal snow. I suspect that years with no Dec snow would correlate with below normal Jan snow as well, but I would need to analyze the data to know for sure. It makes sense intuitively, the culprit behind a pattern that is so putrid that it leads to 0 snow in Dec can often be blamed on a lack of cold air. Going from a horrible well AN temp pattern to a colder and snowier pattern is a process that takes time. It is not uncommon at all for extreme patterns (well AN or BN temps, extremely wet or dry patterns) seem to set in for 2+ months.

I’m referring strictly to average daytime temps, I completely agree about not caring about whether the nighttime temps are say 25 instead of 23. That’s a fair point you bring up about the distribution though. 20 days of snowpack before it melts is nothing to sneeze at, especially where I live. The months matter too, it’s easier to stomach a Dec torch than it is a Jan or Feb torch.

What good is average snowfall if it all just melts away? My 6 inches I got from the early Jan storm just melted away a few days later. I care about things like snowpack and winter feeling like winter (cold temps) just as much as the total seasonal snowfall. I would go as far as saying I prefer a 40 inch snowfall winter with -3 avg max temp than a 50 inch snowfall winter with +2 avg max temp. A lot of people here will disagree which is fine, not everyone likes the same weather. Hell, it’s not uncommon at all for people to get excited about mild and snowless winters like Torch Tiger does. Nobody is right or wrong here, it’s just personal preference.

The biggest issue with the prospects of this becoming an acceptable winter isn’t the snow, it’s the temps. I do not think it’s completely unrealistic that we get lucky and get a big storm in Feb or Mar to bring the snowfall totals near the coast to slightly below average or average, but let’s say exactly that happens and we get average temps the rest of the winter in Boston. Even if Boston gets the average temp snowy 2nd half it’s looking for (let’s say 35 inches of snow in Feb-Mar with normal temps), that would bring Boston to climo for snowfall, but the average max temp would be +2. That is still quite a bad winter. And 35 inches of snow during Feb-Mar is a LOT of snow. It’s not impossible, but it’s also not the most likely outcome. The most likely outcome is around 20-25 inches.

Boston average daily max in December: Boston average daily max in January: 36 degrees, actual 38.7 degrees. Departure: +2.7 degrees. Boston average daily max in December: 41 degrees, actual 46.4 degrees. Departure: +5.4 degrees. Yes, the pattern improved from Dec to Jan, but it improved from extremely shitty to just shitty. The first 2 months of winter are going to go down as 4 degrees above normal for average daily highs. To get this winter to be a C winter (average), we will need Feb and Mar to average 4 degrees below normal with 35 or so inches of snow. That’s…. a very tall task. I will acknowledge that it hasn’t been quite this horrible in the snow department for interior areas, but the temps have still been a big problem.

Paul Roundy mentioned the possibility of a reversal in the replies. Possible Nina next year?

There is a clipper threat next week. Hopefully that can deliver and give us a few inches of snow even if the big threat is squashed.

I’m not even asking for big snows at this point, just for winter to feel like winter. As long as temps are above normal that’s not going to happen.

Perfect track, just a couple degrees too warm despite being at peak climo. Climate change is a real bitch, I got barely anything here. I said I would eat my socks if my area got over 7 (then changed it to over 4)….. knew my socks were safe when I looked at my thermometer yesterday morning.

There is nothing I hate more than strong or super ninos. They flat out SUCK here, I’ll take my chances with a raging nina over this garbage. At least Ninas are good for ski areas. Snowman19, qqomega, and yes the Pope were right about this winter. Missing storms to the north, ok that’s supposed to happen. Snow in the mid Atlantic is a waste because it all melts in a week. Snow up north is actually useful because it sticks around and results in better skiing conditions.

36 degrees here….. it’s not going to happen.

Its not? Huh, I always thought NYC was considered northern mid Atlantic.

If that’s the case, I hope you guys get screwed too. If New England isn’t getting snow I hope nobody does. Well….. actually im not sure you would consider not getting snow to be such a bad thing. Oh well, unfortunately for us weenies it looks like your concerns about the El Niño strength were correct.

If a phase is as unlikely as the bolded, that is EXTREMELY concerning. I knew the pattern has major suppression risks but holy shit I didn’t think it was that bad.

I’ll take my chances with a La Niña next year.

In all seriousness, it’s ok to be wrong sometimes. I called for areas of 16+ a few days ago, which was incredibly dumb in hindsight. With the temp profile we would need like 3+ inches of QPF for that, which is not supported by any guidance. The storm has trended worse since then, but it was still a dumb call at the time given the setup.

Perfect low track in late Jan and we can’t get enough goddamn cold air to snow. Can’t make this shit up. I understand that it’s not going to snow a ton every year, but winter should feel like winter. This shit is not winter.

You want me to put my money where my mouth is? Yeah, fair enough. I’m going to call for 1-2 inches of snow here, a coating in Boston, 2-3 for you, 3-5 for Worcester. In Western Mass I’ll go 6-8 (elevation). I don’t think anyone is sniffing double digits with this putrid airmass. If I’m wrong, I’ll own it.

It’s going to be 35-36, I’m not getting 4 either. I’m going to double down on that post…. I’ll eat my socks if I get over 4 inches.

If I actually get 7 inches I’ll eat my socks. You cannot snow without cold air.

Unfortunately I agree with you. Strong and super El Niños are better for the mid atlantic, they suck up here. I’m rooting for a La Niña next year.

I’m skeptical of the maps giving me 5-6 inches of snow. I’m taking the under on that given how warm it is.

I hope they all rain down there in the tropics

Realistically what’s the ceiling here? I figured with how this has evolved it’s not very high outside of the mountains.