George001

There is a wave coming down from Canada and there have been some interesting developments at H5. The wave isn’t super strong, but it looks like there is some strengthening as it hits ocean. There is also a bit of phasing going on, so although the vort is weak to start, the explosive development should occur as this over strengthens, expanding the precip field. It needs some work, but if this deepening occurs further west eastern mass should get some ocean effect snow. These type of events get overlooked but every once in a while a localized are wakes up to a surprised 3-4 inches. It’s probably going to be a lot less than that, but if this trends aggressively we have an outside shot at 2 inches of snow, so it’s still worth tracking.

Just curious, how come the -NAO stretches we had the past couple of years didn’t prevent storms from cutting? I always thought a -NAO meant storms would be forced to redevelop south and turn into Miller Bs even if the trough is west. Is it due to the location of the block?

This was a huge problem last year and in mid Jan this year. Those back to back cutters especially were awful. Not having to worry about that would be a welcome change for sure. For some reason I thought a -NAO meant you can’t cut…. I learned the hard way that isn’t true last winter.

If things trend in the direction of a 1 month stretch of BN temps, I’ll start getting excited. If that happens, then we have a shot to make up for lost time IF we get lucky. Hopefully we at least get one shot to roll the dice on a good 1 month stretch of below normal temps with above normal precip.

This looks better than the setup for the 5th threat (that one looks dry everywhere, low is way offshore). Before I really get invested in this period, I want to see 2 things. 1. No can kicking 2. to not see any signs of the pattern breaking down on the long range guidance once we get to the short range It actually moved up a bit over the past few days, so that’s a good sign. I think it will happen, but I’m more concerned about how long it lasts. If it is just a transient window that isn’t going to cut it. To get this winter out of rat territory we need this favorable pattern to lock in for a good month. We did have a couple transient favorable windows, but did not capitalize and they were too short. The theme of the winter has been warm and wet, the question remains whether this is a transient window inside a sea of warmth, or is it a large scale change to cold?

You know…. A deep understanding of meteorology, data science skills, AI, ML, software development skills, and some element of intuition (the art side of forecasting) are all really useful tools to have in a forecasters toolbox. Ive seen some truly incredible some of the things that have been done on this board using a variety of these tools. I can’t think of anyone who has mastered all of them though, that’s why collaboration and a commitment to leaning is so important. One of my favorite things about weather is how complex and unpredictable it is. It’s fascinating how Mother Nature is able to consistently and easily make so many brilliant minds look so goddamn stupid. It’s really an art in that sense, no matter who you are, what your background is, etc, those who dabble in trying to predict the weather WILL end up with egg on their faces at some point. It’s just the nature of the beast, anyone who makes a correct forecast and thinks they have it all figured out….. will be proven wrong. Those who believe they are the smartest person in the room and take great pride in their sense of “superiority” will not grow beyond a certain point. Those who assign their self worth to how “good” or “bad they are at forecasting the weather are missing the beauty of Mother Nature. The greatest minds in the world, they all stood on the shoulders of giants. There is no shame in drawing from others to forecast, and there is no shame in being horribly wrong and looking like an idiot sometimes. Instead of competing with others, those who dabble in the dark arts of trying to predict the unpredictable beast that is mother nature should embrace the chaos. There is no reason to be afraid of getting egg on your face, accept that it will happen and laugh about it later on. There is no place for ego.

The pattern this winter is an extreme one. I know there is a lot of talk about how the pattern has changed, but if you take a more broad view of the temp and precip profiles, it’s been pretty consistent. It has been very warm and extremely wet in New England. This winter so far has been one of the highest QPF winters on record, the issue is most of that QPF has been rain. The sample size is way too small to make conclusions, but 3/5 of the wettest Dec-Jans on record for Worcester were El Niños, and 2 of them were borderline super events (57-58 and this year). I know meaningful statistical analysis on a sample size of 5 isn’t something you can do, but I just found it kind of interesting.

You can recover from a bad Dec, but i would bet that if you looked at the winters that we got skunked in DEC, it’s a strong BN snow signal. The biggest reason is due to the fact that an average winter from Jan-Mar after a shitty Dec will result in below normal snow. I suspect that years with no Dec snow would correlate with below normal Jan snow as well, but I would need to analyze the data to know for sure. It makes sense intuitively, the culprit behind a pattern that is so putrid that it leads to 0 snow in Dec can often be blamed on a lack of cold air. Going from a horrible well AN temp pattern to a colder and snowier pattern is a process that takes time. It is not uncommon at all for extreme patterns (well AN or BN temps, extremely wet or dry patterns) seem to set in for 2+ months.

I’m referring strictly to average daytime temps, I completely agree about not caring about whether the nighttime temps are say 25 instead of 23. That’s a fair point you bring up about the distribution though. 20 days of snowpack before it melts is nothing to sneeze at, especially where I live. The months matter too, it’s easier to stomach a Dec torch than it is a Jan or Feb torch.

What good is average snowfall if it all just melts away? My 6 inches I got from the early Jan storm just melted away a few days later. I care about things like snowpack and winter feeling like winter (cold temps) just as much as the total seasonal snowfall. I would go as far as saying I prefer a 40 inch snowfall winter with -3 avg max temp than a 50 inch snowfall winter with +2 avg max temp. A lot of people here will disagree which is fine, not everyone likes the same weather. Hell, it’s not uncommon at all for people to get excited about mild and snowless winters like Torch Tiger does. Nobody is right or wrong here, it’s just personal preference.

The biggest issue with the prospects of this becoming an acceptable winter isn’t the snow, it’s the temps. I do not think it’s completely unrealistic that we get lucky and get a big storm in Feb or Mar to bring the snowfall totals near the coast to slightly below average or average, but let’s say exactly that happens and we get average temps the rest of the winter in Boston. Even if Boston gets the average temp snowy 2nd half it’s looking for (let’s say 35 inches of snow in Feb-Mar with normal temps), that would bring Boston to climo for snowfall, but the average max temp would be +2. That is still quite a bad winter. And 35 inches of snow during Feb-Mar is a LOT of snow. It’s not impossible, but it’s also not the most likely outcome. The most likely outcome is around 20-25 inches.

Boston average daily max in December: Boston average daily max in January: 36 degrees, actual 38.7 degrees. Departure: +2.7 degrees. Boston average daily max in December: 41 degrees, actual 46.4 degrees. Departure: +5.4 degrees. Yes, the pattern improved from Dec to Jan, but it improved from extremely shitty to just shitty. The first 2 months of winter are going to go down as 4 degrees above normal for average daily highs. To get this winter to be a C winter (average), we will need Feb and Mar to average 4 degrees below normal with 35 or so inches of snow. That’s…. a very tall task. I will acknowledge that it hasn’t been quite this horrible in the snow department for interior areas, but the temps have still been a big problem.

Paul Roundy mentioned the possibility of a reversal in the replies. Possible Nina next year?

There is a clipper threat next week. Hopefully that can deliver and give us a few inches of snow even if the big threat is squashed.

I’m not even asking for big snows at this point, just for winter to feel like winter. As long as temps are above normal that’s not going to happen.

Perfect track, just a couple degrees too warm despite being at peak climo. Climate change is a real bitch, I got barely anything here. I said I would eat my socks if my area got over 7 (then changed it to over 4)….. knew my socks were safe when I looked at my thermometer yesterday morning.

There is nothing I hate more than strong or super ninos. They flat out SUCK here, I’ll take my chances with a raging nina over this garbage. At least Ninas are good for ski areas. Snowman19, qqomega, and yes the Pope were right about this winter. Missing storms to the north, ok that’s supposed to happen. Snow in the mid Atlantic is a waste because it all melts in a week. Snow up north is actually useful because it sticks around and results in better skiing conditions.

36 degrees here….. it’s not going to happen.

Its not? Huh, I always thought NYC was considered northern mid Atlantic.

If that’s the case, I hope you guys get screwed too. If New England isn’t getting snow I hope nobody does. Well….. actually im not sure you would consider not getting snow to be such a bad thing. Oh well, unfortunately for us weenies it looks like your concerns about the El Niño strength were correct.

If a phase is as unlikely as the bolded, that is EXTREMELY concerning. I knew the pattern has major suppression risks but holy shit I didn’t think it was that bad.

I’ll take my chances with a La Niña next year.

In all seriousness, it’s ok to be wrong sometimes. I called for areas of 16+ a few days ago, which was incredibly dumb in hindsight. With the temp profile we would need like 3+ inches of QPF for that, which is not supported by any guidance. The storm has trended worse since then, but it was still a dumb call at the time given the setup.

Perfect low track in late Jan and we can’t get enough goddamn cold air to snow. Can’t make this shit up. I understand that it’s not going to snow a ton every year, but winter should feel like winter. This shit is not winter.

You want me to put my money where my mouth is? Yeah, fair enough. I’m going to call for 1-2 inches of snow here, a coating in Boston, 2-3 for you, 3-5 for Worcester. In Western Mass I’ll go 6-8 (elevation). I don’t think anyone is sniffing double digits with this putrid airmass. If I’m wrong, I’ll own it.