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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    36 degrees here….. it’s not going to happen.
  2. George001
    Its not? Huh, I always thought NYC was considered northern mid Atlantic.
  3. George001
    If that’s the case, I hope you guys get screwed too. If New England isn’t getting snow I hope nobody does. Well….. actually im not sure you would consider not getting snow to be such a bad thing. Oh well, unfortunately for us weenies it looks like your concerns about the El Niño strength were correct.
  4. George001
    If a phase is as unlikely as the bolded, that is EXTREMELY concerning. I knew the pattern has major suppression risks but holy shit I didn’t think it was that bad.
  5. George001
    I’ll take my chances with a La Niña next year.
  6. George001
    In all seriousness, it’s ok to be wrong sometimes. I called for areas of 16+ a few days ago, which was incredibly dumb in hindsight. With the temp profile we would need like 3+ inches of QPF for that, which is not supported by any guidance. The storm has trended worse since then, but it was still a dumb call at the time given the setup.
  7. George001
    Perfect low track in late Jan and we can’t get enough goddamn cold air to snow. Can’t make this shit up. I understand that it’s not going to snow a ton every year, but winter should feel like winter. This shit is not winter.
  8. George001
    You want me to put my money where my mouth is? Yeah, fair enough. I’m going to call for 1-2 inches of snow here, a coating in Boston, 2-3 for you, 3-5 for Worcester. In Western Mass I’ll go 6-8 (elevation). I don’t think anyone is sniffing double digits with this putrid airmass. If I’m wrong, I’ll own it.
  9. George001
    It’s going to be 35-36, I’m not getting 4 either. I’m going to double down on that post…. I’ll eat my socks if I get over 4 inches.
  10. George001
    If I actually get 7 inches I’ll eat my socks. You cannot snow without cold air.
  11. George001
    Unfortunately I agree with you. Strong and super El Niños are better for the mid atlantic, they suck up here. I’m rooting for a La Niña next year.
  12. George001
    I’m skeptical of the maps giving me 5-6 inches of snow. I’m taking the under on that given how warm it is.
  13. George001
    I hope they all rain down there in the tropics
  14. George001
    Realistically what’s the ceiling here? I figured with how this has evolved it’s not very high outside of the mountains.
  15. George001
    It will come more north.
  16. George001
    It’s very unlikely but it isn’t impossible. It’s an unusual evolution, but we have seen clippers dive south, bomb out over the Atlantic and evolve into a blizzard before. My biggest concern is the temp profile, I’d prefer to see modeled temps in the mid 20s not low 30s throughout the storm.
  17. George001
    Was the blocking more north based those years?
  18. George001
    Damn, so we are basically going straight from fall to spring
  19. George001
    For New England, strong Nina isn’t bad. It’s not our most favorable Enso state (weak Nino and weak Ninas are better), but it’s more favorable than strong or super ninos here. 2010-2011 was one of the snowiest winters on record in the Boston area, and it was during a strong Nina. The last strong Nina we had before that (2007-2008) wasn’t quite as good, but it was still a pretty good winter. Farther north that was an extremely good winter.
  20. George001
    I agree that the long range looks better on recent runs and that we will see a colder stretch. However, I don’t like how far south the blocking is on some of these runs. Especially given strong nino climo, I’m concerned about suppression (Feb 2010 style). While yes, the pattern on the models is supported by Feb strong nino climo, that pattern isn’t necessarily good for SNE. It’s a great pattern for the mid Atlantic, ok one for SNE north.
  21. George001
    It is possible yeah, but I wanted to see positive trends today and we got steps back instead. Im more interested in the clipper threat behind this one for my area. That needs some work but has been trending favorably the past couple of runs on the gfs. This storm speeding up appears to have helped the wave spacing for the follow up threat.
  22. George001
    Yep. Not our storm, it sped up a ton on the models today. Could be a good interior hit still though.
  23. George001
    I’m gonna give it until 0z tonight, but if we are still seeing weak solutions by then yeah it’s time to admit that the Pope had the right idea. Very unfortunate to see the models taking steps back today.
  24. George001
    Euro sucks, what a shame. Big high to the north, strong southern energy but I guess the pieces just don’t want to come together.
  25. George001
    Hopefully not worse. We need: 1. Deeper low 2. Low more north 3. slower storm
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