George001

09-10 could be a decent analog with continued strengthening in nino 4, but 72-73 and 91-92 are better matches for the polar domain. I like 91-92 in particular for the polar region, which was impacted by the Pinatubo eruption. The issue is people see the 2009-2010 analog and assume it means 50 inches of snow for DC is coming, when that isn’t what it means. The pacific pattern could be similar, but variation in the polar domain would lead to different results. The high solar activity also is a +NAO signal. For 02-03, I don’t see that as an analog because of El Niño strength (moderate). Even if the nino 4 region continues to take off, 2015-2016 is a better analog for nino strength (super) and it is not a modoki like 02-03 was.

The primary analogs for the winter of 2024: Key factors: Enso state: El Niño Enso strength: Super Polar region: unknown, but lean is +NAO due to the increasing solar activity and recent volcanic activity. Pacific region: This is developing like an “old school” nino, starts in the east and moves west over time. The flip side of this is the nino will likely peak earlier in the eastern regions, and later in the western regions. I am leaning towards the peak being “too late” for eastern snow lovers, but the possibility of an earlier than expected peak needs to be watched. The PDO is expected to stay negative, but the region is rapidly warming. It likely averages in the neutral/slightly negative range, but could reach that via a moderate negative anomaly in Dec, slightly negative anomaly in Jan, and slightly positive in Feb and Mar. Atlantic region: SSTs are warmer than average. Top analogs: 1972-1973, 1991-1992, 2015-2016, 1997-1998, 1925-1926. decent analogs: 1957-1958, 2009-2010, 1991-1992, 2019-2020 The best analog right now is 72-73, a classical east based (EP) El Niño coming off a La Niña, super peak, averaged -PDO for DJF. Polar region was a strong +NAO, which I believe this winter has a higher probability than usual for due to the unusual volcanic activity and solar activity. That is why I like 1991-1992, that winter was less driven by ENSO than I think this one will be (strong, not super), but it was a strong +NAO winter, which has been blamed on the extreme volcanic activity (Pinataubo eruption). This also was linked to the raging +NAO the following winters (1992-1993 and 1993-1994 were strong +NAO winters).

Doesn’t look cold and snowy to me, looks like the typical super nino induced mild PAC air flooding the country pattern.

I don’t think it’s quite as bad inland, but for my area I think it will be another dud winter. Super nino sucks here.

El Niño has entered strong territory. Super is all but inevitable!

So what are we thinking here? Nino goes strong by early September and super by mid October? Or do you guys think it waits until November to become a super nino? The strength of the nino has been increasing rapidly over the past few weeks, in line with the more aggressive guidance.

I’m starting to think there is an outside shot it goes super by the last week of September. It’s unlikely, but with how rapid the increase has been over the past couple weeks if that continues it can’t be ruled out.

With the super nino coming I could see a similar scenario to 2009-2010 if there is a lot of blocking. Probably a warmer version, being that the nino will be quite a bit stronger and climate change, but same general idea. Not quite 2009-2010 level, but decently AN snowfall departures in the mid Atlantic while my area in SNE is well BN.

I posted that in the wrong sub forum lol, where I live it was the exact opposite. Boxing Day 2010 was a huge blizzard in SNE, and so was snowquestor. 2009-2010 was the heart wrencher for us. You guys in the mid atl got buried while we got skunked via a couple storms hitting a brick wall and sliding OTS from the blocking, and then we had the snowicane which had that almost straight N/S gradient. It’s interesting how 2009-2010 were almost the exact opposite, 2009-2010 buried you guys and skunked us while 2010-2011 buried us and skunked you guys.

I agree, I’m thinking a good 4 months of super nino conditions. October, November, December, and January. Even Feb is possible if the nino is slower to weaken than expected which happens sometimes.

What would you say a reasonable lower and upper end outcome for this nino is now based on the latest developments? I am expecting another bump in the guidance next month based on how aggressive the warming has been recently. I would say the probability of this being a strong nino at the peak is rapidly declining. Super is looking more and more likely.

Damn, people get really passionate about enso. I get being excited about the developing El Niño, but there’s no need to be at each others throats over a difference of opinion ya know? Strong and super are both still on the table. Weak is not, and I would take a moderate peak off the table as well now. The nino is already in high end moderate territory but there is still some unknown to how strong it will get at the peak. I would say the range of outcomes is +1.8 at the low end to +2.6 at the high end (I’m leaning towards us meeting in the middle at +2.2, a solid super peak). It is weather after all, and the one thing I learned from my years of tracking is I don’t know shit. That’s part of the fun of tracking, it’s so unpredictable.

2010-2011>>>>>>>>2009-2010, It’s not even close.

Super by October?

That is true, even the best get things wrong sometimes. That said, I still give Raindance full credit for last winter because he went really aggressive and forecasted near record warmth for my area with below normal snow, and that is what happened. Im not saying the NAO doesn’t matter, but the past few years taught me that the pacific is more important for my area than the Atlantic. I’d weight it something like 80% pacific 20% Atlantic. North Atlantic blocking “ups the ante” and leads to strong slow moving storms with loads of precip, but if the pacific doesn’t cooperate it’s just going to be a lot of rain. The pacific pattern is what determines our temp profiles. I’ll take a quick mover with arctic air in place over a slow moving marginal bomb reliant on “creating its own cold air” any day! I’ve been burned by taking the cheese on the whole “it will create its own cold” thing a million times over the past few years.

He is definitely warm biased (but so is the climate to be fair), but he knows his shit. He just likes warmer weather, there isn’t anything wrong with that. When it comes to seasonal forecasts though, Raindance is the guy to listen to due to his track record. His preliminary forecast has most of New England (especially coastal SNE) with below average snowfall. My area he has at 60% of average. With the super nino -PDO combo in place that makes a lot of sense, historically that is a really unfavorable pattern for us. Super ninos are warm everywhere, but the reason they are so terrible in New England vs the mid Atlantic is with the juiced STJ you get more Miller As rather than Miller Bs. Those can be good up here, but often we are in the screw zone in those storms due to the best dynamics being to the south (load blown southwest), and stronger ones will often hug the coast or even run inland a bit, which is when our eastern longitude screws us. A good example of this Miller A coastal SNE screw job is the 2010 snowicane, big rainstorm in Boston while NYC gets buried with a 2ft blizzard. If you have too much blocking, they bury the mid Atlantic with ridiculous amounts of snow and then go OTS or scrape us. The thing is though, I would not be panicking at all if I lived in the mid Atlantic. Those same Miller As that screw us can and often are really good for the mid Atlantic, and the mid Atlantic only needs one big storm to exceed climo (very common in super ninos). It all depends on where you live. I just happen to live in an area that does poorly in super ninos so I am pessimistic about this winter for my area.

What’s the correlation coefficient for this?

Name one super nino that had above average snow in SNE, mid Atlantic sure but SNE and New England does poorly in super ninos due to big storms missing south (raging STJ is better for mid Atlantic, northern stream driven Miller Bs are better for SNE). Also, mild pacific air flooding the nation with warmth makes the overall pattern unfavorable for a run of smaller storms and sustained snowpack.

If the nino was going to be strong maybe, but it’s going to be super. That leads to a warm pattern in the east.

Not necessarily true. Some of it is at night yes, but not enough to justify a forecast of even average snowfall for the Boston area with a +4 to +5 temp profile. It’s possible sure, but I would bet on well BN snowfall in the Boston area if we get a +4-5 temp profile in SNE. Now if it’s +2 DJF and the bulk of that is during December, that’s a completely different story. I’m expecting it to be much warmer, but I will acknowledge that is within the realm of possibilities.

1997-1998 and 1972-1973 come to mind, both of which are valid analogs for this season. 97-98 might have had 3, but I’m not sure. Besides, one biggie and 3 advisory events would only get us to climo IF said biggie crushes us. It could easily miss to the south like they often do in strong or super ninos.

Easier said than done to get several advisory events on top of your one biggie that comes with many big nino events (not even a given, just a higher probability than normal) if the temp profile for DJF is +4-+5 (which is what I’m expecting).

Im sure we will have a decent stretch in there, but im expecting it to be more 2015-2016, 2018-2019, etc than 2002-2003.

No, im being realistic and stopped wishcasting. My area averages 40-50 inches of snow per year. I expect 20-30 inches this year with well AN temps, which I think is more than reasonable for a super nino with a -PDO (most good nino analogs are +PDO). Will we have big winters in the future? Yes, but I just don’t think this winter is our year. There is nothing wrong with that.

According to NOAA enso 3.4 averaged +1.3 this past week. That is in line with the more aggressive guidance and puts this nino on track to become strong by September, and super by November.