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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    I have no confidence in the 24th threat. Looking at the ensembles, the temps are AN. The temps are just too warm this winter. I got burned with this threat and the Jan 7th one, I’m not getting burned again. It’s just going to be another shitty needle threader that requires a tremendous amount of luck. It’s a ratter, for me it’s time to move on to tracking the ENSO state for next winter.
  2. George001
    After a busted forecast it’s important to ask what went wrong and try to learn from it. In hindsight, I overlooked a few glaring red flags: 1. No high to the north, marginal airmass. 2. We were reliant on phasing during a very fast flow. The pattern did not favor a tucked in bomb close to the coast. 3. Not giving enough weight to the most recent guidance. Can’t just assume things will come back north or a massive shift is an overcorrection.
  3. George001
    There is no way in hell Boston has over 2 inches, never mind 7. My call for a Boston blizzard was a major bust. I have about an inch of slush here, and I’m pretty sure Boston got even less than that.
  4. George001
    God damn it, I was forecasted to get 12-18 inches just 2 days ago and now I’m getting white rain. I’m rooting for a big Niña next winter. There is nothing I despise more than missing a big snowstorm to the south.
  5. George001
    34 degrees. Note to self- NEVER get hyped about snow if the projected temps are above freezing.
  6. George001
    No….. I had hopes it would trend back north but yes I was concerned. Then I woke up and saw the radar was north, had hope again. Looks like the Pope may have been right after all.
  7. George001
    It’s snowing but the snow isn’t really sticking, I only have a coating. Radar looks good but I’m starting to get concerned.
  8. George001
    Rain just changed over to heavy snow here
  9. George001
    I just woke up and checked the radar, HOLY FUCKING SHIT ITS WAY NORTH OF ALL THE MODELS!!!!! WERE GONNA GET BURIED!
  10. George001
    Why does a 970s mb low over the benchmark have such a compact precip field?
  11. George001
    The models still havent gone back north to where they were a couple days ago, what the fuck…..
  12. George001
    The Navy was way north at 12z. It usually has a well se bias so that is interesting, it could be on to something.
  13. George001
    I might bust, I’m not super confident but eh…. I’m sticking to my guns. I am skeptical that the storm will be as dry as some of the latest guidance has it. I believe there will be a blizzard in Boston tomorrow.
  14. George001
    Euro has been flopping around and is an outlier. Tossed
  15. George001
    This looks like it was run out of Metfans cruiser
  16. George001
    It can snow at 34 degrees
  17. George001
    It would be very unfortunate if the good pattern coming broke down that fast. I’m hoping to not see bare ground until late March after Tuesdays snow.
  18. George001
    I’m thinking 12-16 here
  19. George001
    I checked the models this afternoon and told my family to stock up on groceries and prepare for the blizzard coming on Tuesday. 980s mb low passing inside the benchmark, I’m all in.
  20. George001
    I’m getting excited about this threat
  21. George001
    Gfs a bit north from last run. I’d like to see that continue.
  22. George001
    I’d like the low to be about 75 miles SE of the GFS and Canadian for my area, but I’ll take my chances with a low bombing to the 970s in mid Feb.
  23. George001
    This is painful to look at. If only it was a few degrees colder in eastern mass.
  24. George001
    Damn, that is one hell of a storm.
  25. George001
    Agree, you can still get a somewhat respectable winter with slightly above normal temps in the means, but it’s been what +4 AN? That’s just too warm. Meanwhile Alaska has been getting hammered.
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