George001

That said, although things do look ugly right now and I would lean warm, I’m not quite as pessimistic as I was last year at this time for New England. South of NYC yeah it looks really ugly, but New England has more room for error in stronger Nina’s. Latitude is a big deal in SE ridge patterns. Could it flex all the way up to Canada? Sure it can, and it likely will at times. But it can also lead to gradient patterns where those on the north side of the gradient get hammered like 2007-2008.

Yeah 95-96 is not a good analog at all, +PDO, weaker event, east based. I don’t think 14-15 and 10-11 are bad though. I like 14-15 for the atlantic (good solar match, strong consolidated PV), and 10-11 for the pacific (good ENSO match for both strength and structure, good PDO match). I’m not a fan of the way analog forecasting is done and interpreted. Using 14-15, 10-11 etc as analogs shouldn’t mean “Oh this means Boston is getting 80+ inches of snow”. It doesn’t work that way, just because there are some similarities in those years doesn’t mean the results will be the same. 14-15 is a decent analog for the Atlantic, but that was a strongly positive +PDO and a modoki Nino. A +NAO in a weak modoki Nino is a very snowy pattern, a +NAO in a moderate-strong modoki nina is a big warm signal. What Bastardi leaves out is that 2011-2012 and 2022-2023 are great ENSO analogs. AGW also needs to be considered. Bastardi fails to do this, which is a big reason why his forecast always bust cold.

Yeah I’m thinking it gets to around the strength of the 2007-2008 or 2010-2011 Ninas.

I’m not a fan of that analog because I think the strength is incorrect. 2007-2008 could be a good analog. +NAO, strong La Niña, -PDO.

The -PDO has strengthened quite a bit over the past month, I stand corrected on that. For the strength of the nina, im not really buying some of the weaker guidance. The subsurface is already nearly -1C in May, that’s not something that happens in weak events. I’m still thinking it becomes a strong Niña rather than moderate, but we will see.

Another thing to watch that could throw a wrench into things is how early/late does this Niña peak? The Niña is expected to transition from an east based event to a modoki, if the Niña peaks early like the latest guidance has that would be bad news. However, if the guidance is jumping the gun a bit and that transition to a modoki event is delayed a couple of months, that could make a big difference for the first half of winter. Despite the latest guidance being a bit weaker with the Niña I’m not sold on that just yet, especially given how the subsurface looks. I still think it’s going to be a strong event with the more aggressive guidance ultimately being correct.

The PDO is still up in the air, but it will likely be negative as is typical for moderate to strong Nina’s. These are valid points, and I agree that it looks ugly right now. Some of the latest guidance is trending more towards a moderate peak than strong one, but regardless the solar activity is a strong negative factor for east coast snow prospects. I am much more concerned about that than the raw strength. In the extremely snowy strong La Niña event in 2010-2011, the solar activity was very low, opposite of this year. Id keep an eye on the PDO, it is negative but not as strongly negative as it was earlier in the year despite the Nino falling apart. That’s one thing to look for as a possible wildcard that could work in favor of those rooting for snow on the east coast. Ultimately, right now things are pointing in the direction of a +NAO moderate-strong Niña which is bad news for weenies such as myself.

This is interesting, so basically climate change is leading to more La Ninas and stronger ones? I remember reading something about there being a link between more extreme ENSO events in general and climate change. That kind of makes sense, often there is overlap between stronger events and multi year Nina’s. I’m curious if climate change is causing stronger Nina’s which in turn leads to more multi year Nina’s, or is it the other way around? Regardless, in terms of sensible weather this doesn’t matter, as either way it would result in more multi year Ninas as discussed by this study.

That goddamn primary robbed me of a blizzard. It deepening so much and plowing into Wisconsin was a killer for our snow chances closer to the coast.

Yep, never ever toss the NAM in these setups. That’s one of the things it’s very good it, sniffing out mid level warm layers.

Damn, that gives me 4 inches of sleet

The bigger issue at least for my area is the warm layer at around 700mb. That’s a big reason why the NAM 10:1 clown is giving me nearly a foot and accumulated snow depth is only giving me an inch or 2. Accumulated depth is the way to go outside of elevations and south of maybe southern VT/NH, since it’s more of a sleet setup than a snow setup. I’m thinking an inch or 2 here with mostly sleet for now, need that low to bump another 25 or so miles SE and strengthen (which is a long shot) to get more than that.

NAM improved a lot, low is more south. If we can get that low to deepen 5mb more and trend another 25 or south maybe the coastal plain and lower elevations can get in on the action. Either way, during the first half of the storm it looks like it’s going to be a mess here. Starts as rain, then changes to sleet and quite a bit of it, then maybe some snow at the end.

The subsurface is already down to around -.8C, early signs appear to be pointing to a strong event.

Gfs looks more north unfortunately

That would be an…… interesting commute in the Boston area.

And then the low plows into southern NH lol. Still south of last run, so I am not completely out of the game for big snows just yet.

Low trended south, it went from being over extreme nw Mass to central CT. Ultimately I am still east of the low, but I like what I’m seeing on this run.

Let’s get that heavy snow axis to shift 50 miles SE

This certainly isn’t good news for those looking for big snows. I wouldn’t discount it at all, the NAM is VERY good at picking up warm layers like that. Anecdotally it seems like when it’s NAM vs the cooler globals in these types of setups, the NAM is right more often than not.

It would be nice if we get the stronger lows like Fridays runs too.

The low is way too weak. It needs to deepen to the low 970s.

Canadian is still south

Gfs way north again

If only there was some kind of weather control device that could physically stop the low from moving north. The way things are trending the low will be over Greenland by Wednesday.