George001

Current anomalies: Nino 4: +0.7 Nino 3.4: +0.3 Nino 3: -0.1 nino 1.2: -0.2. Looking at the subsurface, there is a lot of cold near the surface in the ENSO 3 region. The developing subsurface cold pool is centralized in the ENSO 3.4 region. Am I missing something here? The subsurface + surface configuration appears at first glance to support future cooling in the ENSO 3.4, 3 and 1.2 regions with less cooling in the ENSO 4 region. That said, I do agree that when it actually maters (in the winter), the Nina will be less east based that 2017-2018 was. Regardless, it appears that the debate is between an east based and a basin wide event, there isn’t any signs of this turning into a modoki anytime soon.

The thing is it’s been happening more often. It seems like every other year it hits 70 in Feb or Mar, I don’t remember that being normal even 10 years ago.

I’m gonna be honest, I misread his initial post, he didn’t actually say anything I disagree with. I was outside in the extreme heat all day yesterday and my brain is kind of fried. Before anyone asks, yes im blaming AGW for this entire argument taking place.

Again, it hit 80 fucking degrees in Feb. AGW was already off the charts.

AGW has absolutely progressed further since then, but 2017-2018 was NOT before AGW, not even close. That was the year we saw 80 in Feb. Also, wasnt the MJO being not stuck in phases 4-6 related to the east based Nina? I remember reading a while ago how Modoki Nina’s and East based ninos for reasons tend to support MJO development in the maritime regions. Isn’t that why the ENSO structure matters?

The past 2 winters we had a borderline super Nino and a modoki moderate Nina. Last year in particular looked shot months before winter started. A potent east based Nino is the absolute worst possible ENSO configuration in New England. 2nd worst is a potent modoki Nina. With a weaker ENSO this year the other factors will hold more weight, people on these weather forms see Nina and panic but it’s really not justified in New England.

I strongly believe that things will be different this time. As in, we won’t be looking for a couple windows of opportunity in a well AN temp winter. I don’t think this winter will finish more than 1C AN for DJF. A good sports analogy is the Celtics and Clippers. People said the Celtics were soft, chokers etc because they kept imploding in the playoffs. All year long the signs were there that things would be different this time, but people kept saying same old Celtics, and then we all know what happened… Same thing happened to the Clippers, people doubted Harden and said he would fail on the Clippers, but he ended up having a lot of success. Due to the success James Harden had with the Clippers, they gave him a 70 million dollar 2 year extension. The point is, things change. Just because the past 2 winters sucked doesn’t mean we should expect this one to, especially when there are already signs that the ENSO state will be significantly more favorable than either of those winters.

More reason to NOT buy the Euro and its ENSO Neutral prediction.

Gun to head, if I was grading what I am expecting to happen from a scale of 1 (ratter) to 10 (2014-2015) for this winter, I’m thinking around a 6.5 for my area as of right now.

I don’t think things look all that bad for us. The guys dooming and glooming over in the ENSO thread have valid reasons to be pessimistic, but they also live hundreds of miles south of us. There is a world where they get fucked by the Nina and storm after storm goes north and they rain, while we get a good to very good winter. 2007-2008 is a good example of this.

DT on 7/10: La Niña is not likely. CPC prediction center 1 day later: 79% chance of La Nina conditions during November-January. Yeah, im going with the CPC prediction center on this one.

Even if it does end up being a big winter, im not giving JB and DT credit if they are right for the wrong reasons. Given that the current PDO is strongly negative and that is consistent with the projected ENSO state for the winter, there isn’t a good reason to question the strongly -PDO forecasts. Also, DT straight up calling for ENSO neutral is laughable. The latest NOAA update yesterday gave an 80% chance of La Niña conditions being present during the winter. There is a stronger case for a moderate La Niña than ENSO neutral.

That makes sense, the jet stream moving north over time is one of many observed long term effects of climate change. That also explains why clippers are so rare now. They still exist, but they don’t dive as far south as they did in the past.

I think it’s strange that there is a ridge in the east and west. Usually bad Nina patterns have a massive trough out west like 2022-2023.

I disagree, the 2022-2023 temp profile is not conducive to snow outside of NNE and elevations. The reason I am more optimistic about this winter is the shift in guidance to a later developing Nina. While later developing Nina doesn’t inherently mean better winter for the east, the way this specific event is developing right now (from east to west), the earlier the Nina develops, I would think the earlier in the winter it would shift west. This gives me hope that the Nina will be east based or at least east tilted throughout the first half of winter.

It’s probably wrong, but that would be a repeat of 2011-2012.

Agreed on the Nina, I buy that a moderate nina is more likely than ENSO neutral. I disagree with Ben that the pattern is hostile for east coast snow, a basin wide east tilted Nina until Jan, then it moves west. That isn’t bad at all.

Fair point, but Region 4 is massive, and the SST anomaly was equal to region 3 (-1.5).

Yeah that’s not even close to east based, the monthly SST data for Dec reflects a strong modoki Nina if anything.

10-11 was not east based at all, guidance is more east based with the Nina than that winter, but less east based than 17-18 and 95-96.

I agree with that, but unlike last year I would also argue that nothing supports a 11-12, 2022-2023, 2023-2024, 1972-1973 etc redux.

I’m on board for a good winter from NYC north based on the recent trends in guidance. I was pessimistic a couple months ago, but things have changed. There are still some red flags, but I’ll gladly roll the dice with a weak east based or basin wide Nina.

If the recent guidance is correct, this will be the 2nd most favorable ENSO configuration we’ve had since 2017-2018 (best was 2018-2019, that winter failed for non ENSO related reasons). There are reasons to believe things will be much more favorable than the last 2 years where we had a modoki moderate Nina and then basinwide borderline super nino. The IRI blend had a peak of roughly -0.65 in NDJ, and guidance has trended towards a basin wide event that is leaning east if anything.

Yeah the temp + precip profile last year was consistent with previous strong and super Nino events. Warm and wet. Unfortunately, it was more like the really bad ones than the decent ones with a big KU event.

I suspect AGW is playing a major role in this