George001

Whenever I start using that logic in poker, typically in about 10-15 minutes all my money is gone.

I would be excited if I lived in the mid Atlantic for this coming winter. I’m fairly down on winter for my area in SNE, but I think you guys have a good chance of doing well relative to climo. Super nino with a juiced STJ and some blocking is a good snow pattern for the mid Atlantic. Cold will be tough to get with a nino this strong, but you guys just need things to line up once (like 2015-2016 which I think is a decent analog for this winter).

On the weeklies absolutely, I actually think it’s going to end up around +2 on the weeklies. I think for the monthly average 1.9 is a bit of a stretch but not impossible. At the current rate of strengthening it would likely be 1.7-1.8 for September.

1.9 would be tough to get for the monthly average, but I do think we will breach 2.0 by late month on the weeklies, with maybe a 1.7-1.8 on the monthlies. Either way, 1.6 on the weeklies in early September is very impressive and is even more data in support of this El Niño becoming super.

That’s why In terms of winter prospects I really hope I am wrong about the polar domain and the seasonal models have the right idea. We are likely punting December regardless, those tend to suck to begin with in strong or super Ninos. For this winter, I think something like 14-15 or 02-03 (both cold and snowy) are not in the cards. The path to a decent winter is something like 12-13, where overall it’s a mild winter but when we do get our windows later in the winter we capitalize. I don’t remember that winter having a ton of storms, but at least for my area we had 2 huge ones with 2 feet+ (early Feb and early Mar blizzards). I am fairly down on this upcoming winter overall, but I will acknowledge that if we can get things to break right something like 2012-2013 (mild but snowy, capitalized in Feb and Mar) is in the cards. If I’m going to be wrong I think it will be like that, I would be shocked if we have below normal temps though.

The pre big xmas event sure, I’ll give you that one, but what about the earlier month storm that had a decent track and just was a few degrees too warm? The pre Xmas storm very well might have been rain 300 years ago, I don’t know for sure but that one wasn’t close to being snow for us. It’s the strong mid month storm that was being compared to Dec 1992 for a while that I think we really got boned by AGW. The storm track was decent but it ended up being rain outside of the deep interior and mountains. Hell, even Dec 1992 probably would have been much better for the immediate coastline with a slightly cooler thermal profile. It’s kind of a double edged sword. You get more moisture (can actually lead to more snow IF you are cold enough), but for areas like mine closer to the coast the warm Atlantic SSTs and more marginal climo to begin with makes us susceptible to reaching a “tipping point” where the increased moisture and stronger storms no longer outweighs the milder thermal profile leading to a quicker reduction in average snowfall.

Yeah shit like “nao blocks linking up with the SE ridge” seem to happen more often. I have a hard time believing that the AGW induced near record warm atlantic SSTs did not play a role in us getting skunked last December. (Possibly acting to pump up the SE ridge and infuse more marine air into storms, screwing the SNE coastline). There was a storm in mid Dec I remember that was a decently favorable track but was all rain outside of the well interior, but the temp profile was just a couple degrees too warm. December climo in general seems to have deteriorated much quicker than Jan-Mar, likely because it was the most marginal to begin with. If you add a couple degrees to the ocean temp in an already marginal temp profile, that can easily take storms from a foot of heavy wet snow to 36-37 degrees and rain. March has much cooler Atlantic SSTs, so we have a bit more “room for error” with the warming oceans. Eventually that will get fucked over too, but I think it’s going to be a favorable month for quite a bit longer than December.

That’s why I think it’s a mistake to use older analogs like 57-58 and assume it would lead to similar results. The climate is completely different now, that’s part of why Joe Bastardi keeps busting too cold. He likes using old analogs but fails to adjust for AGW. If he could accept that AGW is indeed real and adjusted the temp profiles accordingly for his analogs, he would be a better forecaster.

You bring up some great points here. The pacific warm pool that has been linked to climate change has been fucking us over the past few years. In 2014-2015 it was displaced east, the past few years it’s been more west. This year it looks very similar to the past few winters, not 2014-2015. I am on board with a super nino, but even if I am wrong about that and the El Niño peaks at strong instead, there are still so many things working against us. We have extremely warm ssts in the Atlantic, the west displaced pacific warm pool, high solar (+NAO signal especially in Feb), -PDO, etc to worry about. I hope I am wrong but things are not looking good if you want a cold and snowy winter in the east.

Right now I’m thinking this: October: 2.1 November: 2.4 December 2.3 January: 2.0 That would be a trimontly peak of 2.26, would be bumped up to 2.3 OND (super). The reason I am going big on the strength of the El Niño is the latest obs. I know there are a lot of factors like the MJO, -PDO, etc that would argue against rapid El Niño strengthening, but the past couple months the nino has been strengthing rapidly even with those factors working against it. Makes me think that if things tilt even a little bit more favorable for El Niño development (stronger MJO wave, weakening -PDO, +IOD development, etc) the strengthening will accelerate. We already are at +1.5 on the weeklies, and August finishing in the +1.3 range is in line with the more aggressive dynamical guidance.

Just curious to see what the distribution is. Seems like most posters are on board with a strong or super nino, but I’m curious to see if a consensus is beginning to form or it’s still an even split. I’m going to start by putting in my vote for super (I’m thinking a peak of 2.3 or so).

Thats fair, my track record is really fucking bad. I let bias cloud my judgement and see the same from a lot of posters (to a lesser extent), so I’m probably projecting a bit. I remember arguing that it we would get a blizzard despite being on the east side of a 940s mb low last December. Deep down I always knew that was far fetched, but I wasn’t thinking rationally, I just saw a red L on tropical tidbits and went off the deep end ya know? I will always have that bias, but I am making a concentrated effort to be more realistic and science based rather than looking through the lens of thick snow goggles. Ray mentioned that he thinks I’m overcompensating a couple days ago, which is very possible. If you have a bias and you know you have one, to become a better forecaster you pretty much have to compensate in some ways. It’s all about finding the right balance.

I don’t think he does seasonal forecasts anymore, but I’d put Isotherm in there too. He nailed some tough ones that fooled a lot of other people (2019-2020 being mild, went big in 2010-2011 even with the strong nina, etc).

I don’t know… maybe you think it will even out with a bigger sample size and we have just been “unlucky” would be my guess. I don’t think you do it on purpose (like Joe Bastardi does), but I do think that a desire for snow is seeping into your winter forecasts and leading to a cold and snowy bias. As for snowman19…. He has the opposite bias that you do, he likes warmer weather like Torch Tiger.

Is it really unhinged? This is straight from Rays blog (posted 2 years ago, so it does not include the disaster that was last winter). The mean forecasting error with respect to the eight seasonal snowfall outlooks are as follows: 2021-2022: 25.4% 2020-2021: 11.7% 2019-2020: 678.3% 2018-2019: 90.4% 2017-2018: 15.6% 2016-2017: 36% 2015-2016: 71.4% 2014-2015: 13.7% Eight season running mean error: 117.8% 29/117 (24.8%) of snowfall outlooks have been under forecast. 61/117 (52.1%) of snowfall outlooks have been over forecast. 26/117 (22.2%) of snowfall outlooks have verified within the forecast range. Still need a bigger sample size, but this indicates a strong snowy bias in his outlooks. That said, I respect the transparency but frankly that is straight up a horrible track record and backs up what Snowman19 is saying.

Yes, but I’m expecting the MEI index to peak around +2 (super) as well.

Speaking of ENSO, I’m curious what the official ONI will be for JJA. I’m guessing in the +1.2 range? August had a lot of warming, enough to easily get the nino into moderate territory on the latest trimonthly update.

I don’t buy it (too early, it will change a million times for better or worse) but verbatim I actually think March looks the best. Dec is dogshit and likely part of Jan too, but I would take that and run. We would make up for lost time fast in Feb and Mar if the cansips is right. The pacific isn’t good, but it is better than I expected.

Now that would be an analog worth getting excited about. Below normal temps, above normal snow with a historic blizzard in February. Unfortunately, the moderate 1.3 ONI peak and modoki structure doesn’t look like a great match for the 2023-2024 winter. A good estimate right now is 2.1-2.3 ONI (super). The 65-66 nino was a super nino like this one will be, so that may be a better analog.

I hate to be that guy, but isn’t the super nino + strong -NAO combo not that good for us? I would be concerned about the mid Atlantic cashing in more than us in that pattern. That is actually the biggest reason why I am so pessimistic about this winter. Even if the forcing is somewhat favorable and I am wrong about the NAO, the “good” analogs (1957-1958, 2009-2010, 2015-2016) do not impress me at all. I would take 2017-2018 or 2021-2022 over any of those winters. I haven’t checked the exact numbers, but I would bet March 2018 or Jan 2022 alone were snowier than the entire 2009-2010 winter here, and possibly 2015-2016 as well.

Yeah, it looks on track for at least 3 months (OND maybe, NDJ very likely) with a peak >2.0 (super).

I don’t know if it should be considered a moderate El Niño right now. On the latest weeklies, Region 4 is moderate, region 3.4 is strong, and regions 3 and 1.2 are super. When 2 of the 4 ENSO regions are super and the other 2 are moderate and strong, I would think that it makes more sense to consider it a strong nino than a moderate one, even if it is considered moderate officially. Kind of like how last winter the nina was on record as a low end moderate Nina, but practically it was acting like a strong nina (even super at times, especially during the early part of winter). Off topic, but I’m not sure why there is an official threshold for super nino but not super nina. I would think that if super ninos can occur, super ninas can too. The 2010-2011 La Niña had an MEI reading of -2.5 (super) at its peak. Even in the winter, the MEI was -1.9 (strong) in December and January, and in October and November it was -2.1 (super). Last winter the Nina was only moderate, but the MEI peaked at -2.1 (super) and was still -1.5 (strong) as late as October and November. Of course, just like with ONI, just looking at the MEI alone isn’t enough. It felt like last winter acted like a strong Nina for the most part, and even super at times. The 2010-2011 la nina in my opinion should be considered straight up super if that’s actually a thing.

Last year was a great winter……. for Torch Tiger. Hopefully this winter is colder.

There is evidence suggesting that the Pinatubo eruption was linked to the strongly positive NAO winters of 91-92, 92-93, and 93-94. Other factors are unknown (Siberian snowcover, etc), but the known factors right now favor a strongly positive NAO. The solar correlation is weaker, but the correlation between the solar cycle peak and the NAO is a positive one, especially during Feb. Is a negative NAO possible? Of course, but right now, strongly a strongly positive NAO is favored. The last time we had a solar peak was I believe was the 2014-2015 timeframe. A possible wrinkle is that this solar cycle isn’t as strong as that one was, but the correlation worked well then with Feb 2015 being a strongly +NAO month. Sure, a negative NAO is possible. Maybe I am overlooking something that I didn’t even consider that is a stronger driver than either of those things (solar and volcano). It’s possible, but right now I am leaning towards a strongly positive NAO winter (especially Feb). If I’m wrong, I’ll own up to it and admit it.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2021JD035519 https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2021-241/acp-2021-241.pdf These are a couple good sources for the link between the NAO index and solar activity. What I got from it was that the correlation was strongest in Feb, but where exactly we are in the solar cycle has a big impact on how strong the correlation is as well as what month. It’s not a super strong indicator, but based on how close we are to the peak of the solar cycle, I would favor a positive NAO during Feb. It isn’t perfect, but correlation between sunspot activity during the peak of the solar cycle correctly predicted the NAO index during the last peak. The last peak was I believe around 2015, and Feb 2015 the NAO was strongly positive. It’s more complicated than that, but when combining the severe volcanic activity with the sunspot activity, I like that analog for this Feb (polar region, not pacific).