George001

You know what would be really interesting? If this nino develops into a super nino, but also goes from east based to a modoki. 2009-2010 was a strong modoki but I don’t think we’ve ever had a super modoki nino, really strong events are usually more east based just like how most strong ninas are normally west based.

The anger towards the north will continue to build.

If we get an east based nino that would make it what 8 consecutive winters that finish AN for the DJF average temp in New England? That’s gotta be a record.

No high to the north again, I’m not falling for this one. Rain for everyone outside elevation and way north if we get a storm. Lets get modeled temps in the low 20s and high teens and then I’ll start getting excited for eastern mass snow potential (so, not until 2024).

In a few days that low will be over Montreal

Too warm, looks more rainy than anything.

It’s definitely east based now but yeah it’s unclear whether it will stay that way or turn into a modoki. The more important takeaway here is the El Niño events that did build from east to west historically have been quite strong. There are a lot of signs this El Niño will be a strong one, coming off a 3 year Nina, MJO on roids during the seasonal change, all the warmth in the subsurface, etc. we also haven’t had a big nino since 2015-2016.

The Pope did a great job with his forecasts this winter, I have to give credit where it’s due. Analogs and the long range models are good tools but the Pope correctly assessed that the presence of geese in November was a red flag. Animals have no sense of the calendar, the way they tell the seasons are changing is based off the present weather, the landscape, etc. Being able to accurately prepare for the change of seasons is literally a matter of life and death for animals, as they are forced to endure a level of exposure to the elements that we have the luxury of avoiding. They are far more in tune with the elements than we are, so I do think seasonal forecasters would benefit from incorporating analysis of animal behavior into their forecasts. Yeah it’s a strange method yeah, but if it works it works. I thought it was dumb at first too, but throughout the winter it became more and more clear that I was being too closed minded. Instead of just discounting something because it seems dumb, strange, or is telling us something we don’t want to hear, it’s good to keep an open mind.

Yeah I’m at the point where I’d rather have it be warm and sunny unless we get a massive early spring blizzard. Since that isn’t happening I’m rooting for it to get nice and toasty. I’d rather have 50s and sunny than 3-6 inches that just melts the next day.

Even if it does amplify the high to the north leaves so it’s too warm. Winters over, just wasn’t our year. Massive trough camping out west all winter with record snows in California tells us all we need to know.

Yeah just the day before the storm they had Boston at 8-12 and they didn’t even get an inch. Just a few degrees too warm, the dual low scenario screwed us in eastern mass. If it stayed one low we would have gotten a lot more than we did.

It will come way north imo, the trough goes back out west and the blocking is too weak. It’s possible things break right but I would much rather have a good pacific and bad Atlantic than what we have now. Blocking helps but the pacific is a lot more important. I’m ready to move on to spring, hopefully we get a west based moderate or weaker nino next year.

Yeah the snow underperformed here as well, I only got a couple of inches. I’m ready to move on to rooting for record heat. I hope we break 100 this summer.

Why do you track storms if you don’t enjoy it?

The snow aspect of the storm didn’t really pan out here but this storm was far from a disappointment. We got nearly a months worth of rain in just 2 days, that’s really fucking cool. Easily one of the most fun events I’ve tracked in the last decade with all the uncertainty.

Most of the accumulating snow in eastern mass is supposed to be tonight. I’m not giving up yet though I will admit things don’t look great right now.

Based off the latest obs how are you feeling about your map

The nam sucks it was giving me 2 feet the other day. I never bought those totals but based on obs I’m not sure I even get 6, it’s 39 degrees and raining right now. Still one hell of a storm though, some areas in the berkshires already have 20+ inches.

Thats awesome, I’m jealous of you guys getting buried. I gotta move north lol

A lot of areas are a couple degrees colder than the models had us at this time

37 degrees and heavy rain in Foxborough, MA.

That’s big, even 1 or 2 degrees can make a huge difference. Just can’t have that low plowing inland.

How come totals were lowered in eastern mass? The Euro was really good, nam too. Obs showing the low farther west leading to them thinking it will run inland?

Could the October storm we had in 2011 be a decent analog for this? I remember there was a sharp gradient with that one, I got half a foot or so, just to my SE got barely anything and NW areas (especially elevation) really got buried, 2 feet plus. That storm lacked cold like this one and created it’s own cold air.

What are some good analogs for this storm with a low looping over the cape?