WinterWolf

Exactly this!! Very well put. And 80 degrees in Early October happens all the time in SNE...not a big deal. Won't last all that long either. We've had quite a few cool days already this month, despite the monster heat.

Lol it's the same exaggerations season after season.

I wouldn't necessarily lay my money on the GFS a week out.....just saying.

I wouldn't hold my breath....I have a feeling anything that occurs will be very underwhelming

Oh I wasn't questioning if it was or wasn't, just kind of felt bad that someone was picking apart his new place/location. It's all good.

Lol way to rain on the guy's parade........

would you be able to post that image??

Simple solution....you just don't evacuate. They can't make you leave. If I lived in Virginia with the forecast being what it is now...I'd just disregard the evacuation.

Very true...she’s been all over the map.

Yes sir....if that persists...look out! She definitely has not behaved as predicted, does she have a few more surprises up her sleeve??? Perhaps??

I agree Ray. the flooding will most likely be very major. Obviously if you’re in an area that gets drowned, Then This thing is gonna be a nightmare for those folks. The media just jumps the gun all the time...and who knows, maybe this thing does become a historic/lifetime event, but the degrading look right now is not what a once in a lifetime storm looks like...so I get why some are questioning some of the hype out there.

The hyperbole needs to be in check on both sides of the spectrum....phrases like “storm of a lifetime” being thrown around in the media, is premature imo; and now “making landfall as a tropical storm,” is also very premature. these are the comments that come back to Bite when used prematurely. Bittom line...if it weakens to a cat 2, the whole storm of a lifetime is going to look ridiculous. Likewise, if this pulses up overnight into a beast again, then the DOA ideas too will look foolish. Let’s see where we stand tomorrow morning???

SST are great for development where it is. Or perhaps she’s just shot/peaked as others have said, and it’s degrading at this point. Still so much we just don’t know about these systems that make them so difficult to forecast...proof positive by the way it’s degrading currently. This certainly wasn’t forecast as recently as yesterday. Agree with Snowgoose....this is probably weaker than it’s current estimate at 8:00 pm.

There wasn’t supposed to be any shear when it came into this area(at least not any that would disrupt the system at least), conditions looked very very good for strengthening/or at least maintaining it. So the modeling a couple days ago didn’t even foresee this shear issue on the system.

Isn't it always amazing how there always seems to be that unmodeled fly in the ointment with all types of storm systems....so many moving parts to take into account...surprises always abound.