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About Quincy

  • Birthday 02/03/1987

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  • Location:
    Oklahoma City, OK

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  1. I stayed far away from that hail core, but had a neat vantage point of structure to the south:
  2. I’m in Stratford, OK which is about an hour SE of Norman. It’s been raining here almost every day for the past 3+ weeks. Yards are flooded. Grass is growing out of control. Reminds me of 2015, except even later in the spring. It’s crazy that it’s been so much hotter in the northern states lately than we’ve been at all this entire spring! I only had two chase days in Oklahoma all year too. Definitely a weird year and an odd pattern.
  3. Caught a glimpse of the tornado near Fort Stockton, TX today. Only managed a couple pictures due to terrain and power lines.
  4. I think in Colorado it was a noteworthy tornado. Once it got into the western Oklahoma panhandle, it was a lot less conclusive. It may have touched down a few brief times over the border, but I think the main deal was earlier. Terrain was a pain, for visibility and navigation.
  5. I went for a Hail Mary with targeting the Fort Stockton area of SW Texas today. I figured Oklahoma would be slop with mega chaser convergence anyway. A supercell near Sanderson produced hail up to 2.0” and there were a few photo opportunities before and after that.
  6. Hanging back near Scott City. Watching dozens of chasers flood north, but I’m hanging back in case we get CI in southwestern Kansas soon. Looks like a tornado is also ongoing at the moment in far southwestern Nebraska.
  7. That’ll spell problems. Any storms that go up in western Kansas over the next few hours should rapidly become severe.
  8. Even several HRRR ensemble members show earlier CI
  9. HRRR shows convection holding off until just about 23-00z, but then erupting into a mixture of discrete and semi-discrete supercells. SPC cautioned that some CAMs show convection initiating several hours sooner. The 12z DDC sounding is cautionary as there isn’t much of a cap and the convective temperature is 80F. HRRR showed temps reaching the 80s by early afternoon. I’d think a compromise is probably the most realistic scenario, especially with HRRR having a “late” bias with CI.
  10. Planned on storm chasing near Lubbock on Tuesday, but wound up on a marginal supercell closer to Amarillo. I was mildly surprised how long it persisted. It had some neat structure for a while, too
  11. Chased a high based supercell in far northwestern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Quite a bit of wind and hail with this storm. Pronounced inverted-V thermodynamic profiles (71/46 at GLD 01z).
  12. Questionable low-level thermodynamics up there and it’s hard when the velocity scans are relatively high due to distance from radar sites.
  13. I’m not chasing Kansas due to other obligations, but I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t chase it, if I were available. It just doesn’t strike me as a big tornado chase. I am mildly intrigued by the dryline in SW Oklahoma. As usual, the HRRR has been playing catch-up with moisture return. With that said, it still looks like dews are a tick too low for a more certain storm threat. At this point, I think there will be attempts at convective initiation around 22-23z, but given limited moisture, relatively large T/Td spreads and residual CINH, I doubt that there is any robust, sustained convection. It doesn’t strike me as a “drive three hours west and get PUMPED” setup, but if trends improve, there is a non-zero threat of a supercell.
  14. Is it bad that I barely look at long range or even medium range guidance with respect to severe threats? It’s probably easy for me to say, living in Oklahoma. I feel more for those who have to travel long distances, and/or delicately plan PTO for chase trips. Models change and patterns evolve. As mentioned, as we get later into May, moisture will be better and severe setups will become more common. We’re still in that transition period. I don’t have data offhand, but I know that historically, early May has known to be quiet more often than not. It gets sandwiched between late April events (usually in the mid-South/Southeast) and peak trends in the second half of May. Think of it, most severe setups will change even the DAY OF. There isn’t too much use getting fixated on details. Threats seem to fall apart, far more often than the needle is threaded. Tomorrow looks blah and the pattern looks relatively timid for the following few days. Wake me up in late May.
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