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About Quincy

  • Birthday 02/03/1987

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    Oklahoma City, OK

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  1. It looked interesting for a short time. Logistically, I couldn’t go too far east or southeast since I have obligations in Oklahoma tomorrow morning. At least I was able to bail before it got too late in the day.
  2. Stas is a beast. He claims he sucks at chasing Dixie, but his results say otherwise.
  3. Typical post-2016 Dixie chase for me. Bust! Central Alabama was really the place to be today. Not looking so hot for the southern burbs of Birmingham again...
  4. I’m at a clearing near Vina, AL on a hill. View is partially occurred and will be repositioning to the NE momentarily... Can sort of see a grungy wall cloud to the west.
  5. I’m on the AL side heading up to get into position for this storm. Will pass on if I see anything interesting.
  6. We’re kind of beyond NAM range, but FWIW, it pops supercells all over the place from northern MS into TN and KY over the next few hours...
  7. The I-20 corridor looks like it has potential for several more hours. The return flow is pumping unstable air back north. Hopefully more storms don’t take a beeline toward Birmingham...
  8. I also wonder how closely they use HREF probabilities as a guideline. They usually don’t deviate far from that. That popped a small tornado driven high risk at 12z.
  9. Surface winds are more backed up here, but low level flow is rather weak. I’m actually in NE MS “chasing” now, near the AL border. More like making a decision soon if I’m going to bail back to Oklahoma.
  10. It’s still a bit early, but I agree with this, especially for the western part of the risk area, closer to the MS River. Sure, we have large CAPE and near-record lapse rates, but the wind field there is just about unidirectional now. I think that getting big CAPE and large hodographs in the Southeast is exceedingly rare. The writing was on the wall when midday SRH maps looked relatively modest, west of the MS/AL border. Farther east has been a different story. CAMs remain aggressive with the zone of messy storm modes breaking into semi-discrete storms. It could still happen, but we’ll see. The air mass is recovering over central MS, but low level shear would need to improve. Of course you had that one long track supercell go largely unimpeded on the SE fringe of convection.
  11. 50 knot low level jet core advecting across southeastern Louisiana. Low level instability increasing across Mississippi/western Alabama. 7-8 C/km mid level lapse rates in place. Very little convective inhibition left across Mississippi. Things are about to get real.
  12. I wouldn’t write off the southeastern half of Mississippi yet. There has been a slight southeast trend with recent HRRR runs. Note that the axis of a boundary exists from roughly Jackson-Columbus-Huntsville with ongoing and soon to be new convection along and southeast of this boundary.
  13. One thing to note is the ongoing conveyor belt across central/eastern Mississippi. The most ideal parameter space is progged to develop along and just southeast of this zone by midday/early afternoon. The HRRR has trended just a tick SE, zeroing in on central/eastern Mississippi into central Alabama. You can obviously have tornadoes elsewhere, but you can envision a scenario with several long track, strong tornadic supercells racing across this area.
  14. Initial look at a couple 12z soundings. JAN needs some boundary layer recovery, but that won’t take long with this setup. LIX is already quite unstable. Look at that CAPE... One thing I have noticed from early morning data is that low-level lapse rates are not very favorable yet. Mostly <6 C/km. That means it will probably be a few hours at least until action really gets going. Probably midday? Possibly late morning.