schoeppeya

The GFS has been the leader for this entire event... i'm in the GFS camp for now until proven otherwise.

Y'all have confidence this is going to make its way down to the troposphere?

Pretty incredible radar presentation right now

Looks like we may be getting an attempt to clear out the eye as well

To me, it looks like Idalia still doesn’t have most of its energy focused around the eyewall and think we need to see that bigger outer band really contract before we see winds increase and pressures start dropping. All the feeder bands are currently working into this band rather than the inner eyewall.

Looking at radar it looks like we are about to have our first fully closed eye shortly.

Originally posted in the wrong thread but the low over florida has clearly moved into a better position to provide some ventilation to the northeast

Idalia has had a really hard time actually wrapping feeder bands into the center of the system

Getting salty

Storm has wrapped convection all the way around the circulation including the ups head side, not convinced it’s not off to the races

Radar looks like it’s definitely attempting to wrap thunderstorms on the up shear side of the storm

Finally seeing really intense sustained convection over the center of the storm

Not sure if the llc is feeling the effects of the deeper convection to the east or what but it’s getting pulled that direction in a hurry on visible

Very obvious on visible there is an LLC somewhere over the channel

Looks like there another aircraft en route, should be great timing to capture whatever peak this thing is going for after the ERWC. Looks great on sat.