MUWX

Do we get anymore recon before landfall? Couldn’t find a schedule for tomorrow

If only recon could be in there all night....

We got some hail last night. I consider that winter weather at this point.

Deniers are in a tough spot. Either there’s a ton of cases, or a bunch cases are false positives and the disease is more serious than we currently think.

NHC now forecasting this to become a 5 by tomorrow morning

Old takes exposed

I don’t think we can definitively say it’s even a cat 5 at this point.

Ill go 921, and 160 MPH

Sounds like we will have several straight hours of recon this evening/overnight. Two planes currently expected to go in over night, counting the one on the way now.

Chances seems substantially higher than 0% now. The issues with recon this year are beyond frustrating.

There’s substantial evidence that the eye has cooled over the past couple of hours

Tomer, who is frequently linked here from twitter and is well respected, also agrees that it may be past its peak so it’s not exactly a hot take that it has come down somewhat from where it was.

Seems likely that we missed peak intensity. Will still be interesting to see what recon shows but disappointing that we may never know the true extent of the rapid deepening.

Canadian sees the potential for the first time, has an extended period of sleet and freezing rain. It’s looks like the freezing rain could be falling into an airmass that’s in the mid to upper 20s, which would definitely accrete. GFS continues to show the potential after the 18z GFS backed off. We shall see what the Euro shows in a few hours