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  1. I think you vastly underestimate how difficult it is to forecast winter weather in this area
  2. I wouldn't say it looks good for snow, but it looks good for freezing rain and sleet
  3. I will take nothing over an ice storm any day of the week.
  4. The AFD from SGF is a very interesting read. Mentions the possibility of strong tornadoes, as well as a potentially significant ice storm. Crazy system.
  5. Pretty sure it has been wrong several times this winter already but it was wrong when it was calling for snow and the GFS was not. IMO, side with the model that shows nothing then wait and see what happens. Typically, the model that shows nothing, is the correct solution.
  6. I wouldn't count on them agreeing this weekend, I expect them to come into agreement next Friday. lol
  7. Snow and sleet both accumulate at 10 to 1 with that model, so that's probably not mostly snow.
  8. Yep! I am sitting in at least moderate snow right now. Starting to get that foggy look outside.
  9. Pretty decent "surprise" snow in republic tonight. Probably looking at close to a half inch and still falling
  10. 100 times better than 33 and rain
  11. Surprised there isn't more talk about tonight. Looks to be a "decent" snow/ice event, considering how little talk there has been on here.
  12. Well certainly better than nothing. Not sure I see anything in the next week or so to get excited about though
  13. Just like every other model. Its been almost a year exactly since one of these trended in a positive direction as the event neared this area. When it comes to forecasting winter weather in this area, on technique works best, persistence forecasting, forecast the what has been happening until something different actually happens. For all the excitement there has been regarding the next week to 10 days, its now looking cool to cold with a few flurries mixed in, nothing has changed yet.
  14. I wouldn't jump ship based on the 18z nam, but I would also stop getting my hopes up 5+ days in advance of the storm.
  15. The NAM is significantly colder than the GFS. Not sure what to think of that, but the 18Z nam was 11 degrees colder than the 18z GFS, at 84 hours. I don't put much stock into the Nam, especially at 84 hours but that may be something to watch.