MUWX

Likely the result of the heat island effect. Very marginal system, where a degree or two makes all the difference

HRRR making a few people sweat tonight

As I understand it from reading their twitter replies, they were allowed to issue Winter Storm Warnings for ice rather than having to issue Ice Storm Warnings. Their Ice Storm warnings are now being used when they expect significant infrastructure (power grid) impacts, while Winter Storm Warnings are used when the ice is "only" expected to cause major travel impacts. Here in SWMO, I figured we would have little to no issues with the power grid because air temps were pretty borderline for the entire event so most of it would not accrete on elevated surfaces. However, due to very cold ground temps, roads were super vulnerable. However, SGF does not have the ability to issue a Winter Storm Warning for Ice, so they had to decide between the advisory and an Ice Storm Warning. Based on travel impacts, I think today absolutely should have been a Winter Storm Warning, but offices are limited by the the definitions laid out.

I like what Tulsa did with the winter storm warning. From what I understand, not every office is allowed to do what they did because it’s in the trial phase but this absolutely should have been a WSW in SWMO. I haven’t seen travel impacts like this in a long time.

Portions of SWMO upgraded to an ice storm warning.

Temps are still creeping up, but so far they have pretty substantially under performed. Something to watch as the night progresses.

I think it’ll accumulate on roads very easily but not so much on trees or power lines. Tulsa seems to agree, which is why they are going winter storm warning instead of an ice storm warning

Temps are going to be warm enough to keep it from accreting efficiently up here I think. Roads are a different story

I think the NWS set themselves up for failure by going with a warning.

HRRR is pretty ugly for all of us.

Should be fully sampled for the 0z runs. Don’t believe it was for 12z but not positive.

Pretty much NAM vs the world at this point.

I guessing a very powdery inch, maybe 2

Speaking of events falling apart… High res models really backing off the event for tomorrow morning.

I think you can disregard how dry the euro was, for now. However, you can’t ignore the overall southern trend it, and other models continue to show. Seems like a central OK to central AR storm

Coming out of this stretch with nothing but a couple dustings is hard to do, but it appears that is what I am about to do. Pattern looks very boring after Sunday too.

I expect the strong push of cold air to continue to push this south. I don’t expect much of anything in southern Missouri, and I’d be pretty nervous if I was in northern Arkansas.

Sure starting to feel like this is going to be south of most of us in Missouri

SGF zone forecast for Greene county calls for “heavy snow accumulation” Sunday. Don’t recall seeing that before.

Local Mets are far from excited about Friday.

Roads are starting to get slick in Springfield. I think a flash freeze is a real possibility tonight. Saw a MoDOT plow in the ditch on the way home

I think the Friday system could still be interesting. Cold air should be crashing in and models typically don’t handle that well.

I am putting all my faith in the nam. It has never let me down before

The problem is it’s kind of GFS vs the world

If the NAM is right, there are going to be a lot of unhappy people in parts of Kansas and Missouri