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Everything posted by MUWX

  1. Canadian try’s to do something but it’s a little further north and not as impressive.
  2. The long range 18z GFS is believable, right?
  3. To be fair, his insight is very useful. Take what he says, forecast the opposite, and you are golden.
  4. Sounds like this might be a situation where the east side is set up to fail so that the west side can survive.
  5. https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/1432098829193601033?s=21
  6. NWS reporting a levee is over topping in Plaquemines perish.
  7. Substantially smaller than the first pass.
  8. Then you run the risk of recon getting in their and proving you very wrong. A special update can go out if needed.
  9. Eye is substantially smaller than earlier.
  10. When does recon go back out? This isn’t looking like a 984 MB cat one to me. The eye is starting to clear in visible.
  11. We have a long time to go before we need to start calling for the death of N.O.
  12. Forecasting a major in the initial forecast is unprecedented. This initial advisory is about as aggressive as they ever get.
  13. Will going over western Cuba disrupt this at all? Really interested to see what recon finds this afternoon
  14. You guys have very different definitions of the word “good.”
  15. Weird, Idub said we were going to get weak lows this year. Impressive intensification the last several hours.
  16. I know it was, I’m saying it’s not needed when I posted that. Meant to say “at this time” but look like I missed a word.
  17. Not sure that the large and extremely dangerous tag is needed at this point, but my goodness, that thing was a beast.
  18. Couplet isn’t as tight as it was a few minutes ago. Hopefully a good sign.
  19. Debris ball evident on reflectivity now. Could be a significant tor in progress here.
  20. Showing up on CC and maybe even on reflectively.
  21. Concerning velocity signature just south of Naperville. Was unwarned for several minutes.
  22. Yeah, that storm in EC Kansas is pretty impressive. I wonder how that outflow boundary from the other storms impacts things, it is moving south quickly.
  23. SPC outlook doesn’t seem to be doing well so far. It’ll be interesting to see what they do with the next update, but the enhanced risk currently looks way too far west.
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