MUWX
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Yeah, its looking that way but still a long way to go, and it could mean that we just never really cool off this evening. With that said, the HRRR is still 3-4 degrees too warm at soon .
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Yes, at least in the Mt. Vernon Missouri area. The current temp (11:30) at the university of Missouri extension office in Mt. Vernon is 36.3 and the 16z HRRR showed it being roughly 38 there at 11.
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The 16Z HRRR is 2-3 degrees too warm at 11:00. That's not insignificant
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Most of the models still seem bullish to me. Especially for northwest Arkansas
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May be of significance or it may not, but we got down to 24.4 last night. Forecast low was 28
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Some of the QPF totals being put out by models are insane tonight. If SGF is right, and ratios are close to 12-1…. Could get pretty crazy. Oklahoma is getting screwed because most of theirs will fall during the daylight hours, and with marginal temps, I don’t think they see efficient accumulation.
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For what it’s worth, KY3 already lowered amounts slightly
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Maybe a touch colder than 12z, definitely colder than 18z.
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If we can get another nudge to the north, SWMO might be a really solid spot since most of the snow will fall at night. Even with marginal temps, I think the snow could pile up with no sun
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Southern trend continues on the GFS
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Pretty interesting stats
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Surprised there isn’t more talk about next week. Latest Gfs and Canadian are very similar at this range.
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Lock it in
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Starting to see some very faint returns on radar. I think we’re gonna have a decent period of freezing drizzle before the snow starts.
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I’d still heavily caution against getting your hopes but based on kuchera. The strong winds will be working hard against high ratios. Kuchera doesn’t factor that in
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Springfield extended their winter storm watch. It now includes basically everyone except the southern tier of counties.
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The icon continues to be much faster with the cold air. The 0z icon is about 3 hours faster with the cold air than the nam is. This results in a 6 am temperature difference of 21 degrees between the two models.
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The icon moves the cold air in fast. I think that’s what needs to be watched the closest
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SGF went with a watch for their northernmost counties but only mention 2-4 inches for them. Seems pretty reasonable to me. I think most of us struggle to get to 2”.
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I know ratios are likely to be above 10-1, but i wouldn’t rely on the kuchera numbers either. They are notoriously overdone historically.
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The low tracks way north. A low going from Nevada, mo to southern Illinois isn’t gonna produce much for most of us here.
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Seems unlikely to me that we trend south over the next 4 days but we shall see. Most of us have been on the southern edge for a while now and that rarely turns out favorably 4-5 days out.
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It was fun while it lasted
