MUWX
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Based on what has happened so far, and what short term models are showing for round 2, I don’t see how this event gets to a WSW level event.
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I wasnt expecting it to be this cold, this fast. I am in Carthage this morning, and my car read 25 with a heavy glaze of ice on other cars in the parking lot.
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The biggest difference between Tulsa/northern Arkansas and Springfield, is the fact that the criteria for a WSW are very different. Springfield seems most aggressive with the cold air, reducing the amount of ice, but there’s not enough precip to get them to a WSW level event. Likely won’t see warnings and advisory’s go up until mid day tomorrow. Springfield could also be playing catch up, which wouldn’t really be a surprise.
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Still have a small pile of snow in front of my house from the last storm. I doubt it survives the rain tonight, but it’s lasted longer than I expected.
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NWS SGF, located less than 10 miles from me, reported a storm total of 9.5 inches. After shoveling my driveway, my back says that’s pretty accurate.
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Pretty crazy here right now. Heavy snow, plus fairly strong winds. If we can keep these up the rest of the night, there’s going to be some crazy drifting in the morning.
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Can I trust the high res models this close to an event starting?
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We have switched to very light snow in republic.
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Heady decreased the low end amounts slightly for the southwest mo. Probably concerned about the nam being right like mentioned above.
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The one that gives you the most snow.
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Pretty substantial changes on the 18z nam considering how close we are to the event.
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Well Doug heady isn’t holding back. .1-.25” ice in Missouri, and then 5-10 inches of snow on top of that.
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Saw a couple posts on twitter about how the GFS, Euro and nam are all too fast with the cold air so far.
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Icon has probably been the most consistent out of all the models.
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I’ve also seen it continue to trend NW right up until it starts. The trend is not good for any of us right now.
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Yep. If im betting, I’d say most of us get an ice storm. Long ways to go though
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Gfs is gonna a huge sleet storm for most of us
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I still think a sleet or ice storm is the most likely outcome for most of us.
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Local Springfield meteorologist, Ron Hearst, said the system has been partially sampled and that data was in tonight model run for what it’s worth.
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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2021
MUWX replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
If your looking at the precipitation output, the icon only shows rain and snow. So it doesn’t pick up sleet or freezing rain. If you compare temps and precip maps, you get an better understanding of impacts. -
Canadian is a pretty solid sleet/ice storm for southern Missouri, followed by a pretty solid snow storm.
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Not a great sounding reader, but man, the icon is scary. Hopefully it’s sleet, but if it’s ice, that’s close to 2007.
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Brutally cold gfs run for mid missouri.
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Do you have the ice maps? I would think there is some decent ice totals on the south side of the heavy snow.
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I think pretty much everyone here would be ok with the 12z Canadian.
