MUWX
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The HRRR continues to trend towards less QPF, and is relying on SLRs of nearly 20:1. Seems unlikely.
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Kind of looks like there could be a fairly narrow band of heavier snow in SWMO. Not sure we will know where its going to set up, until it sets up. With that said, I hope the GFS is right, and that Kuchera is close to accurate.
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The key for many of us is getting incredible snow ratios. SGF certainly poured cold water on the idea of getting SLRs of 20:1 or more, but I’m not sure how easy something like that is to forecast.
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Tulsa could end up looking pretty bad for issuing the warning so far in advanced.
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The trend is not good, and were still two days out. It could reverse course, but if the trend continues, its not looking good for anything of significance.
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You are setting yourself up to be taught a very important lesson. Big storms no longer happen here.
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We are on step 10, praying that step 8 happens in the next 18-24 hours. lol
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Doug heady out with his latest and has reduced totals as well. Lucy is certainly here.
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I have seen some chatter on twitter that there isnt nearly as much ascent within the DGZ as was previously expected, so the ratios likely will not be off the charts, like we were all hoping. Additionally, any reduction in QPF is amplified when you are relying on high SLRs to get big totals. Unfortunately, we are trending in the wrong direction on both items.
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Welp, now we wait for this thing to get sampled and hope that it saves us....
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Hard to get overly excited for another 3 inch event.
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It looks like tulsa may be rolling amounts back as well. Is Lucy here?
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Yep. Based on the graphics they have been putting out this afternoon, this is what I expected. At least we got a solid AFD this time.
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I hopefully it is fully sampled by the 12z run tomorrow.
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Well, if I am confident in anything, its that the afternoon AFD cannot be worse than this mornings.
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I hadn't seen that, but I think they have a lower threshold than SGF does though. If I remember correctly, Tulsa is 4" per event while SGF is 6". Hopefully the AFD will provide some insight soon.
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I am concerned by the fact that Tulsa went warning for everyone except NWA, and the fact that SGF isn't forecasting enough snow to meet the threshold for a watch/warning. I suppose SGF could issue one for below the threshold with other factors (cold, and blowing snow) but the fact that their is a warning to the west, and a watch to the east, doesnt give me a ton of hope that SGF is going to pull the trigger.
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Snow hole around my house. This is a lock.
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I'm interested to see what SGF does with their watch. I assume that will come either this afternoon or overnight.
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I doubt you wanna compare misses with us down here lol I havent seen four inches of snow since 2014.
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I like the GFS more than the GFS16.
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I am clearly a pessimist because I do not have any confidence in this.
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GFS 16 beings the sleet/snow line all the way up near I44 in missouri.
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This includes pretty decent amount of snow falling on Tuesday and Wednesday, so this isnt the forecast for just the first storm.
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SGF still hasnt put up an accumulations map, but the overnight AFD mentioned 5-8. Ill be interested to see what they say with the afternoon update shortly.
