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MUWX

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Everything posted by MUWX

  1. MUWX
    Nearly identical to the GFS. I assume this is going to give mets some serious pause on the super high totals in those areas.
  2. MUWX
    The drop off is bigger in Missouri. Went from 14-15 inches to 9-10 inches. Still a good storm but certainly a step back.
  3. MUWX
    For the first time in a while, we have a pretty big step down on the GFS. Everything else still seems on board but that was a not insignificant step back on the GFS.
  4. MUWX
    SGF is now explicitly calling out the that several models are showing totals >14", they have certainly become much more bullish today.
  5. MUWX
    Just north of that line is going to get hammered from wave 1, with another substantial wave to go. Is someone really going to see 20" out of this?
  6. MUWX
    Its wild to me that so many models are still kicking out roughly 1" of QPF and were only 36 hours out from onset. I really thought those would start to come down, but so far, QPF is really holding steady.
  7. MUWX
    Little rock warning leaves open the possibility of some sleet contamination for northern arkansas. Not sure its going to be a big deal, but definitely something to watch as we get closer. SGF upgraded and also leaves open the possibility of some sleet in their southern most counties. Seems like the NWS is really buying the stronger warm nose.
  8. MUWX
    If the NAM is right, a lot of people are going to have issues with the warm nose that weren't expecting too.
  9. MUWX
    I’m not sure NWA sees 20-1 but 15-1 is probably attainable down there.
  10. MUWX
    Warnings going up now. Norman is the first to pull the trigger.
  11. MUWX
    Assuming higher than 10-1 ratios we’re probably close to that through 84 hours.
  12. MUWX
    Essentially two major snow storms in a 36-48 hour period this run. Madness.
  13. MUWX
    Maps I saw on Twitter were a pretty big step down for most. Still a big hit for most of northern Arkansas though.
  14. MUWX
    GFS is back to keeping the second wave pretty far south. Were still a long ways from locking anything in with this system.
  15. MUWX
    The AFD was just a listing of probabilities... nothing about what they are watching or analyzing. Really disappointing. I was hoping they would start to go a little more in depth on QPF expectations and rations... but instead we just got some really pointless percentages.
  16. MUWX
    Wichita has expanded their watch north a couple of counties. I assume SGF will do the same shortly. Edit: SGF added one for the whole forecast area. Most offices getting more aggressive in amounts, curious if they will continue to increase them or not, but several watches now in the 5-10" range.
  17. MUWX
    In some ways getting that much sleet would be awesome, and it other ways it would be incredibly depressing. Seeing the NAM model 8.2" of sleet is absolutely wild. Just an absolutely monster storm on the NAM.
  18. MUWX
    If the more aggressive northern models are correct, a lot of people north of the KS/Ok line, extended into Missouri are going to be caught off guard.
  19. MUWX
    Hall of fame run.
  20. MUWX
    I’m a little nervous about rates. Last year or the year before we had super cold temps and everyone was expecting huge rates and we ended up with less than 10-1 rates.
  21. MUWX
    I don’t fully trust the 18z suite but the 18z Euro is a thing of beauty. Big hit for pretty much all of us as it jumps north.
  22. MUWX
    Anyone got the ensembles they can post?
  23. MUWX
    No mention it a watch coming from SGF in their afternoon AFD. Kind of surprising.
  24. MUWX
    Watches coming out now. I thought they might wait until tomorrow, but Oklahoma offices are pulling the trigger now and I assume the rest will follow.
  25. MUWX
    Still seemingly a lot of possibilities on the table. The Euro and Canadian are pretty good hits for Southern Missouri, while the GFS is still pretty much nothing up this way. They all 3 have different possible outcomes on the table, still a lot to figure out with this one.
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