The Waterboy

And right on cue the NW shifts comes…

12z Canadian has a nasty ice storm next Monday/Tuesday. Yikes!!!

The radar west of OKC looks good. Let’s get a few inches and enjoy all the hard work we’ve put into this!!!

I nominate Flizzard for team captain!

Well, it seems that apathy and numbness are setting in with most of us, me included. Does anyone have a good pregame speech to rally the team???

NWS Tulsa just issued a Winter Storm Watch for a lot of us in NEOK and NWAR. Doesn’t include Metro Tulsa at this time. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. For the Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Well, the Euro sucks again.

We just had a gnarly thunderstorm come through Bentonville. Pea sized hail and I’d estimate wind gusts of at least 50mph if not 60.

18z GFS and ICON were both better than I expected after the Euro debacle. We’ll take it for now. I know there’s a lot of talk about suppression pushing it further south. Maybe this does the typical model NW shift??? Although that seems to happen more with cutters. Overall happy to see models hold steady-ish and give a middle finger to the Euro.

NAM going to come in further south. Ugh.

18z HRRR looks solid. Decent uptick around Tulsa compared to 12z run.

Thanks for the info! What do the Ensembles show for the Friday storm?

For what it’s worth (which might not be much) the RGEM, RAP, and HRRR have 1-2” for NWAR and Missouri. Lesser amounts further west. Cue the “So you’re saying there’s a chance” GIF.

Over the last few runs most of the models continue to speed up the cold front on Friday. Typing this on my phone so the formatting could be wonky when I post this. HR 72 temp for Bentonville ICON - 48 GFS - 25 CMC - 44 NAM - 42 RGEM - 45 Euro - 47 (06 run) HR 78 temp ICON - 24 GFS - 20 CMC - 21 NAM - 29 RGEM - 18 Euro - 44 (06 run) By hr 84 all models (except NAM) are in the mid teens to lower 20’s. RECAP: GFS is much faster with the front. Euro much slower. NAM is pretty much non-existent with the front at all. Temps on the ICON after hour 84 are stupid cold. 5 straight days below zero. There should be a quick changeover to snow. We need to continue to see the trend of a faster solution. One additional note regarding faster push from GFS: Tulsa’s temp at 06z Friday: 18z run yesterday - 50 00z run - 49 06z run - 31 12z run - 27

It has been an interesting trend for sure. You guys in Wichita might get 4+ out of it. Hoping we can see that same trend as it gets into NWAR/SWMO tomorrow morning.