The Waterboy

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Bentonville, AR

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  1. Every year when we start to hear rumors of sudden strat warming I tell myself winter is over. It almost never works out right. Maybe I only remember when they bust but that seems to be the way more common outcome.
  2. Anyone have any interesting insight regarding the next wave by late in the week? It digs down the west coast to the Baja Peninsula and then spins pretty much stationary for 24+ hours before it ejects. Very intriguing. Multiple model runs seem to support it. When, where, and how to wave ejects will determine if we see any winter precip by next weekend.
  3. Ending with about a dusting. Impressive winds today too. Not often we see snow with winds that strong. Fun to watch out the window while working even if it didn’t amount to much. Snowed pretty much all day.
  4. NWS Little Rock said 7 inches fell but didn’t say where.
  5. Looks like the next storm misses us to the south (congrats Dallas?) and then boring after that. The Sunday storm comes onshore tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what happens with the models but pretty solid consensus it will be south of us.
  6. Had a slight dusting here in Bentonville. Enough to turn the grass and rooftops white.
  7. Well that’s an interesting change. A little further north and we’re all in business. Yesterday some of the model runs had it deep into the Gulf.
  8. 12z NAM, GFS, and RGEM increased totals over SW MO and NW AR. GFS-Para increased totals significantly. Actual temp right now is about 3-4 degrees colder than what models (including hires) had forecasted.
  9. I agree! It’s looking good for those of us here in NW AR. Not to be Debbie Downer but the 18 and 00z HRRR runs haven’t been great. The 12z was killer but it’s backed off since. Temps seem to be too warm.
  10. Looks like 2m temps are right on the border at 32-34. Are we threading a needle here? We should get some assistance from it being overnight hours. Not sure how wet bulbing would play into things either. But the slight west trend looks good. 18z HRRR starts shortly...
  11. 12z HRRR just went nuts for SW MO and Northern AR. It even has snow as far south as Fort Smith.
  12. I’ll take the 18z RGEM for the win please.
  13. I’ll take the trend on the 12z Euro being well south so the inevitable NW shift will put us in the strike zone! LOL
  14. GFS-PARA 12z fairly similar to CMC. OK/AR get hammered.
  15. Interesting details from ICT NWS this afternoon: LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 * Wintry precip remains possible WED/THU * Relatively low forecast confidence during this period The focus during this period continues to be the mid-week system, and what impact it will have locally. Ensemble guidance continue to trend deeper and a bit further S/SW with a s/w that is forecast to move out of the Rockies and potentially close off over/near the Central/Southern Plains. Of note, this wave is still well out over the Pacific Ocean (south of Alaska), so expect changes in the track and intensity as the system draws near. Of note, ensemble QPF amounts haven`t shown any significant trends in wetter vs drier. However, ensemble spread among the various members has increased, suggesting even less confidence at this juncture. Given all of the above, I tried not to stray too far from the previous forecast regarding temps/wind/precip. We`ll continue to message the potential for some wintry precipitation with this system, especially late Wednesday into Thursday, but this is far from a certainty. If you think the mid-week system carries some uncertainty, then look no further than the end of the week. It appears a broad trough will get carved out over the western half of the CONUS. Within this trough, models show a bunch of shortwaves "dancing around" each other, giving very low predictability. Perhaps what is most certain is colder air being locked in place, but that`s about where the certainty ends. If the cold air does, indeed, remain locked in place, then any precip that develops late in the week could be of the frozen/freezing variety.