olafminesaw

Ophelia has a rather unusual trajectory, moving NNW at landfall. I can't find any TSs or Hurricanes in the NOAA database along the NC coast that are close. Most move NE, with a number of outliers moving more W or WNW

Higher winds should be pushing inland through the afternoon

The 12z GFS took a sizeable jump west and now brings 2-3" of rain to the Triad. It also brings higher (50mph +) gusts to Raleigh

60 mph at landfall

This is a good point, because reformation adds uncertainty to the track. Hopefully the 18z HAFS will shed some light on the evolution. Seeing all that lightning arcing around the circulation leads me to believe this is developing rather quickly.

It will be nice to get the hurricane models in on the action as well

Also moving more due N rather than NE, as depicted by the GFS, at landfall. Indicates more impact further inland. I think I95 East is a near lock for a moderate impact event. And between Raleigh and I95 is still up in the air depending on track. The Western piedmont should be relatively low impact as of now

I really think it just feels this way. We've gotten a lot more detailed maps and so much more data to sift through over the past few years. Most of the time it's people paying too much attention to outliers. In this case I do think we have a lower confidence forecast than normal

The 6z Euro is really keeping it weak and offshore

First pass suggests current intensity of 90mph is about right. Need to wait for it to sample the southern eyewall, but they got 75 kts in the northern eyewall

The GFS is quicker to develop, and well west. I think the faster it can develop the more chance it has to move inland.

Time to start paying attention to our next tropical(ish) threat. Whether or not it gains tropical characteristics, we could see higher winds than one would normally expect from a system of it's strength, due to the interaction with the high to the north. Heavy rain possible for the coastal plain, with the I95 corridor being the current cutoff for heavier rainfall (subject to adjustment East or west)

A little home brew weenie bait

The Hellenic National Meteorological Service per wikipedia.

Mmm. Cinnamon rolls

Yep, 30 mph sustained winds at Hatteras and 10-15 foot waves. 2 to 4 feet of Coastal flooding as well.

Storm total from yesterday 3.18 at the gauge about half a mile from my house. The 30 minute total of 1.8" and the 2 hr total of 3.16 are both about 25 years floods per the precipitation frequency server. I was driving home in it near peak rainfall rates, thankfully my route didn't have any real low spots, but it was some of the toughest driving conditions I've been in

Agreed, although coastal Maine is more vulnerable to wind damage than NS I would imagine. Looking back through records per Weather spark, gusts in the 50- 60 mph at Bar Harbor are much more rare (maybe once a year), compared to Halifax (3-5 times per year). NS also recently went through Fiona, so this should be no problem for them, while I believe it's been a while since Maine has had a storm of this magnitude. It seems plausible that a large area of the coast near landfall will experience high end TS to low end Hurricane force gusts

The Euro no longer is trying to deepen back to a cat 4, so we'll see if that has any effect on the track

Three distinct clusters. So when combined with the GEFS something like, 15-20% chance of hooking into MA, 40% chance, landfall on the northern coast of Maine, 40% chance of missing right and hitting NS.

Two distinct camps between the faster members that miss right and the slower members that have the hook to the left. The thing is now many of even the slower members miss as they get too far east first and don't make as dramatic a turn as they were yesterday. This is the case with the EPS as well with the OP being a bit of an outlier. Coastal Maine is still in play though and effects could certainly be felt in eastern MA due to the size of the storm

still some pesky convection in the old eyewall, but the new eye is really starting to rock and roll

Might take some time to clear out though (this a couple hours later)

Definitely expanding