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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    The HP is too far North, which allows the storm to escape to our North before phasing and crushing New England
  2. olafminesaw
    Overall, a slight positive trend I think
  3. olafminesaw
    Yep, maybe not as impressive with the dynamics, but that's a tradeoff I think I'd take. Better to not have to rely on rates. Not a huge shift anyway.
  4. olafminesaw
    Just don't know what would happen there. Looks completely different with the evolution
  5. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I was just going to mention. Seems really far south with the energy
  6. olafminesaw
    I think not nearly as good as the GFS, but a little better than the Euro. I think a big key feature is the blocking high to the north. The GFS is pretty well positioned and strong, while the NAM/Euro/Icon are weaker and too far West
  7. olafminesaw
    12z Icon looks Euro-like
  8. olafminesaw
    Vs the Euro which has a long way to go
  9. olafminesaw
    I agree, it's not so much ground temps I'm concerned about as getting the front to move through quick enough before the moisture arrives. Gotta watch trends here, if we can move it south and stronger, we're in business
  10. olafminesaw
    Hmmm, highs in the 60s the day before? Cold chasing moisture? What could go wrong?
  11. olafminesaw
    Hmm...so close but so far
  12. olafminesaw
    Still...gotta watch the initial disturbance, clipper thingy. Could drop a sneaky few inches somewhere. Currently favors to our North, but with the suppression trend, could work out around here
  13. olafminesaw
    Stays positively tilted and holds back the energy. Not a great run (brokenrecord.jpg)
  14. olafminesaw
    Hey I gotta cover for eyewall, lol I do feel a dusting-2" is a plausible outcome for the piedmont. It's our bread and butter anyway.
  15. olafminesaw
    I feel there's not a huge upside with this one. A bigger phase would yield a big hit for DC, but dynamics would suck down here. Of course the phase could occur sooner and to our South, but we've seen how that has been a tough ask this year. I understand the GFS is currently in a pretty good position. I just think it's a bit of a thread the needle.
  16. olafminesaw
    Big shifts
  17. olafminesaw
    Flow too fast, waves too flat. Feel like this will continue through the rest of the winter
  18. olafminesaw
    Just warm enough to avoid major road issues. The I73 to I40 overpass was slick with a nasty looking crash on the shoulder though
  19. olafminesaw
    39/15, 3 degrees below the NWS forecast. We'll see if the trend continues overnight
  20. olafminesaw
    A ton of dry air to overcome though. I wouldn't necessarily expect any precip, even drizzle before 12z. Temps may be slow to budge though
  21. olafminesaw
    RAP is a weenie run. More sleet and snow than ZR, and pretty amped
  22. olafminesaw
    GSO Monday morning
  23. olafminesaw
    RGEM tends to be too cold with these type of systems, but verbatim, precip starts in the upper 20s and slowly warms
  24. olafminesaw
    That's a pretty rough screw zone. What's your Climo normally like relative to the Triad?
  25. olafminesaw
    B+ in Greensboro for a lot of the reasons stated, but we just had a bit more luck (and Climo on our side)
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