olafminesaw

Meanwhile Portland is getting a major snowstorm for the second year in a row.

Dry as a bone

So far it looks to me like the GFS is caving to the Euro

While I don't think a cave from the rest of the models is likely, especially with the Euro ensembles being a bit more amped than the OP, my worry is if you average it out with the rest of guidance you end up with late development that crushed the NE, but leaves us with poor dynamics/warm surface temps. The counter to this fear though is, it's good to see the GFS generate decent moisture on the backside even after the low passes well to our NE. We want the LP to stay weak and ride the boundary.

Yep, always a good sign when the Mid-Atlantic forum is starting to get nervous about suppression

Get's squashed, but pretty close to something good.

The UKMET is quite amped and warm, good to see the GEFS cold and suppressed

Not a ton of snow, but streets would be a skating rink in that scenario for the Triad.

This looks decent I think

The 18z GFS is much more Euro-like in it's evolution. It's just a little too strung out/suppressed to get the job done.

Verbatim the Euro would be pretty nasty in the Triad. Freezing rain turning to snow and temps dropping into the teens overnight. Now it has support from the ensembles. This is right around the time frame where we tend to see models start to put the pieces together, so it's all about watching the trend. Still it's a delicate set-up, even with the advantage of some legit arctic air on the backside of the system. We need this to become a southern stream dominant system and slow down as much as possible.

Yeah we just need the energy to consolidate to the south with less NS involvement. Nice not to see an overly amped up system.

It would certainly be disappointing to not get anything out of this period

12 z GFS is looking much improved for our 15th threat. The trend has been to bring the cutter further south and East which in turn has pulled the cold air further South and East

Single day precip records for January are 3.06 at GSO and 2.96 at Charlotte. It seems likely one or both records will fall

Consensus for 925mb winds to be 50-75kts across all of the eastern half of NC. The 6z HRRR leads me to believe that perhaps gusts over about 45 mph will have trouble making it to the surface without convection, which is probably why RAH is a little conservative. The globals are still gungho on 50 mph+ gusts.

On cue, the GFS serves up a day 9 overrunning event

Is a gravity wave event going to occur in the rear exit of the jet streak? It's looking pretty potent.

Right now the highest winds are timed with the slug of moisture. This would elevate the threat beyond what we normally would get from baraclonic winds, along with a small amount of instability. 925mb sustained winds are 65-75 mph around that same frame so some of that would be brought down by any convection. Maybe it could gust to 50 especially East of the Triad.

Might as well drive a little further up to fancy gap. Should be a couple degrees colder.

AccuWeather is calling for a trace to a millimeter of zr. Not sure if there's really a difference, but seems about right!

No snow, but the Tuesday system looks kinda fun

I mean, I feel like the whole narrative that we've had these fantastic day 10 looks only to have them disappear, isn't really true. We've had way less fantasy storms than normal, and the pattern hasn't really been all that great on ensembles at range either, just kinda oscillating between pretty good and not so great.There's been flashes of promise but nothing crazy. Now we're actually seeing a pretty legit -NAO and -AO at range. Not saying it all couldn't be a mirage after all, just think it's probably not fair to totally discount the modeled pattern change either.

Posted an Eric Webb tweet the other day that said half of all major snowstorms in NC happen after Feb 15th in El Nino years