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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    The NHC's five day forecast up to this point was near perfect for track
  2. olafminesaw
    940 mb is the Canadian LP record
  3. olafminesaw
    A bit lopsided on microwave and ragged on satellite this morning. Seems like it keeps trying to do an EWRC, but is slow to do so
  4. olafminesaw
    Structure perhaps degrading a bit over the past few hrs fwiw.
  5. olafminesaw
    Seems like a situation where land interaction actually helps to push out dry air and tighten the circulation. It may or may not be over land long enough to impede strengthening
  6. olafminesaw
    HAFS, which seems to be performing well so far, brings Fiona through the middle of the Bahamas
  7. olafminesaw
    Overnight models seem to be converging on a recurve/surf-maker. Still, wouldn't rule anything out until it's made it through the islands.
  8. olafminesaw
    12 ensembles comparison
  9. olafminesaw
    Yes but the members that keep it weak also are the ones threatening the coast. I honestly think at this point a slow death in the Caribbean is more likely than a recurve. But if it can survive past the islands who knows, as conditions are likely to improve
  10. olafminesaw
    The Euro is crawling. makes landfall in West Palm Beach in 9 days as a moderate TS
  11. olafminesaw
    In the upper levels the Euro seems to have taken a step towards the Canadian with the ridging shifting east and closing the escape route. Keeps it really weak though and seems to make a broad messy system that may have a hard time organizing
  12. olafminesaw
    Bye bye LLC
  13. olafminesaw
    GFS is further south. Also, curious how that feature over Florida will end up coming into play
  14. olafminesaw
    Yeah, his does make it clearer the tracks they end up taking. I just thought it was funny how even though the mean would be over the island, all the individual members appeared to miss in yours
  15. olafminesaw
    Island forcefield, lol
  16. olafminesaw
    Quite a convective burst in the last hour or so. Impressive for nearing Dmin. Doesn't really look like it's occurring over or near the center, but I don't have that expertise
  17. olafminesaw
    With a track like that, a weak system is almost more likely to hold together over terrain than a hurricane.
  18. olafminesaw
    I believe it has been 5 full days since the NHC gave this a 70% chance of development through day 5. I feel like this has to be approaching longest lived cherry and it may never develope
  19. olafminesaw
    Yeah, would be wild if after this it ends up threading the needle and developing after staying weak through the Bahamas and ends up impacting the East Coast. Ensembles show the weaker solutions heading that direction
  20. olafminesaw
    If it becomes a hurricane, it would be one of the furthest north forming hurricanes on record. The only other one I could find in the NOAA database is Lisa (1998)
  21. olafminesaw
    Mighty impressive. Surely upwelling will hold back intensity for the next couple days though? Or does the subtropical structure negate this?
  22. olafminesaw
    Looks like 1997
  23. olafminesaw
    Yeah, the GFS is broken. Wake me up when the Euro shows development within 84 hours.
  24. olafminesaw
    Camille is the one except that comes to mind. Pretty much held strength from the time it entered the gulf all the way to landfall
  25. olafminesaw
    I'd be curious to what degree the shut-off of the EPAC about two weeks ago has an downstream impact right about now. I know the two basins are inversely correlated (at least with respect to a typical la Nina), but not sure what kind of causation is there
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