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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    Based on the timing of the NAO/AO flip to negative (pretty much a lock at this point), and the lag time typically involved, I'd be looking for a storm threat around the 15th. The Pacific is likely not going to cooperate, but it should be a better pattern coupled with peak Climo
  3. olafminesaw
    A little front end snow with the next system. Something to watch anyway as the upcoming storm tending south/weaker
  4. olafminesaw
    FYI, It seems the precip type maps for the RGEM and Canadian are broken, at least on Pivotal. It's showing ZR with temps in the upper 30s.
  5. olafminesaw
    The 12z icon is much colder at the surface and a bit south as well. Several hours of zr including when the heavier precip moves in. Verbatim would have trouble accreating with temps around 31/32, but a trend to watch with the remainder of the 12z models. Not our typical significant ice storm setup, with limited cold air and heavy precip limiting the potential to a moderate event at most.
  6. olafminesaw
    It's just *not* looking like our storm for the Piedmont (sorry, can't type tonight) Still noteworthy, the next 10 days could get 2024 off to a very wet start
  7. olafminesaw
    Steps in the right direction FWIW
  8. olafminesaw
    I feel like one of these systems is bound to feature front end wintry mix eventually, even if relatively minor
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
    GSO has historically had a 32% chance of .1"+ of snow in that 10 day period, so not far off. Also of note, daily snow climo sharply increases from about 3% per day in the next week to about 6% per day the week after. This means between the 29th of Dec and the 4th of Jan there is a 18% chance of at least .1", and a 35% chance between the 5th and 11th. This of course disregards enso state, I assume that many of the snowfalls in the first week of January occured during El nino.
  11. olafminesaw
    A decent signal, especially for the mountains for 6th/7th
  12. olafminesaw
    Oof. Torches at the surface verbatim, with insufficient cold air, despite the perfect track and being timed well with the cold air. Probably would be snow in this scenario, but might not really even accumulate. Of course, this is still pretty far out, but we keep seeing this system too warm at the surface. Hopefully we see that change towards mid-month.
  13. olafminesaw
    GSO MTD rainfall is now 7.01", which moves it into second highest of all time behind 1914 at 9.05" and just ahead of 2018 at 6.99"
  14. olafminesaw
    An uptick on the GEFS mean as well. Haven't dug into the members at all In case you didn't know, weather.us has about the best free model data out there internationally. Hopefully you get to track something this winter over there!
  15. olafminesaw
    Worth noting that unlike the past couple years, models will probably key into any moderate to major snow threats pretty early on. Good to see the GFS and Canadian also trying to put the pieces together in that timeframe
  16. olafminesaw
    Some potential here for some flakes to fly with the ULL
  17. olafminesaw
    That's my biggest concern is all the pieces flying around. I'd much rather a weak southern stream system running along a ridge.
  18. olafminesaw
    Gravity waves?
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    Ice ice baby?
  21. olafminesaw
    We're due for a "kitchen sink" type storm that eventually gets washed away by cold rain. Lock it in.
  22. olafminesaw
    Yeah honestly I'm a little surprised models are only forecasting 40-50 mph gusts considering their tendency to be overdone, particularly on the stronger Euro. It is really hard to get more than 45 mph winds in the Piedmont from baraclonic winds apart from some kind of jet enhancement/sting jet, which does not seem to be present in this case. We'll have to see what the mesoscale models show closer to the event, although they always need to be reduced by 30-50%.
  23. olafminesaw
    Brings the higher gusts all the way to the upslope region of the blue ridge, which also where flooding rain in that scenario would occur
  24. olafminesaw
    The Euro has a low 980s mb low going right through central NC. This would smash previous pressure records for the month of December. Kinda has the look of a subtropical storm coming up along the Gulf with a fairly tight pressure gradient
  25. olafminesaw
    Good to see the PNA trend more positive. Would at least get some cold air to this side of the continent
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