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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Treasure beach and surrounding areas may get hit the hardest, a big blowup of convection in that area, and some potential to take a step north.
  2. olafminesaw
    Good news for Jamaica on the 8am track, it keeps the center well of shore, would probably only push hurricane force winds to the coast and Kingston may have dodged a bullet from a wind/surge perspective. Still, the island will bear the brunt of the heavy rain
  3. olafminesaw
    Bizarre looking, never seen such a sheared looking hurricane with such a healthy looking core
  4. olafminesaw
    Euro drops up to 10" of rain in a 6 hr period. Considering globals tend to under estimate both localized higher totals as well as terrain enhancement, could definitely be some serious flooding/ mudslides. A big mitigating factor is the very quick forward motion. Most of the rain falls in 6-8 hours.
  5. olafminesaw
    I would think the hurricane would funnel water into the Kingston harbor, but I'm not seeing much historically to support this possibility. Dean took a similar track/ intensity and I'm not seeing any record of significant surge. It may be protected by coral reefs and is sheltered by a barrier island so that may be why. And as you say a storm track parallel to the coast is going to push less water than more of a 90 degree angle (not sure if I have that right, someone more knowledgeable can correct me)
  6. olafminesaw
    I know we normally say an ERC means higher impact, but with increasing shear it could be a saving grace for Jamaica. Sometimes hurricanes can unravel mighty quick if an ERC occurs in a sheared environment
  7. olafminesaw
    Could be a really bad track for pushing surge into Kingston
  8. olafminesaw
    I agree, especially since there doesn't seem to be any reporting stations on the small islands that got hit the hardest. FWIW The latest METAR on windy.com says gusts to 67kts 2 hrs ago and 59kts 1 hr ago. Makes way more sense.
  9. olafminesaw
    I feel pretty certain that is a faulty anemometer. FL winds in that area only would support near hurricane force winds.
  10. olafminesaw
    Structures seem pretty solid concrete. All the roofs will likely be gone though. Even in Irma many well built buildings faired well, and that was a much stronger hurricane
  11. olafminesaw
    Highest winds likely on union Island. Even Canouan got a bit of the core with the larger eye. Surge up into Clifton harbor. Obviously near peak winds on Carricou as well.
  12. olafminesaw
    I bet she already is high end cat 4. The satellite loop showing on the CNN home page is a terrifying sight. Really shows the rapid recovery and symmetry of the eye
  13. olafminesaw
    Per the NHC track, the worst may miss Canouan to the south as well. Which puts a few very tiny islands in it's path, the largest of which has about 3,000 inhabitants
  14. olafminesaw
    Dew point records are a bit unreliable, but it seems GSO has hit a DP of 75 for the first time since 2005
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    A saving grace for the islands could be the very small *core. Right now the track the entire core missing all the. Bigger islands.
  17. olafminesaw
    I'm the same age and have no idea what he's saying so....
  18. olafminesaw
    Although weakening systems into c America are somtimes the most disastrous in terms of impact from flooding
  19. olafminesaw
    I used this tool, which has a bunch of handy filters https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=4/32/-80
  20. olafminesaw
    Yeah this week's chances have really, uh, evaporated. Most will likely see some rain, but unlikely to move the needle.
  21. olafminesaw
    Of the June/July TDs that formed in the general region the NHC has highlighted going back to 1990 max strength as follows: TD 8 TS 9 CAT 1: 6 CAT 3 : 3 CAT 4 : 1 CAT 5 : 1 39% Reached hurricane strength
  22. olafminesaw
    Seems to be getting hit with some more substantial shear this morning
  23. olafminesaw
    My nearly 30 year old heat pump is not pleased
  24. olafminesaw
    3.93" in the last hour
  25. olafminesaw
    I don't have data to back it up, but I feel like May is one of our more feast or famine months, not quite in daily storm potential season, but any synoptic systems that we get could drop a bunch over a fairly wide area.
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