olafminesaw

Per the NHC track, the worst may miss Canouan to the south as well. Which puts a few very tiny islands in it's path, the largest of which has about 3,000 inhabitants

Dew point records are a bit unreliable, but it seems GSO has hit a DP of 75 for the first time since 2005

A saving grace for the islands could be the very small *core. Right now the track the entire core missing all the. Bigger islands.

I'm the same age and have no idea what he's saying so....

Although weakening systems into c America are somtimes the most disastrous in terms of impact from flooding

I used this tool, which has a bunch of handy filters https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=4/32/-80

Yeah this week's chances have really, uh, evaporated. Most will likely see some rain, but unlikely to move the needle.

Of the June/July TDs that formed in the general region the NHC has highlighted going back to 1990 max strength as follows: TD 8 TS 9 CAT 1: 6 CAT 3 : 3 CAT 4 : 1 CAT 5 : 1 39% Reached hurricane strength

Seems to be getting hit with some more substantial shear this morning

My nearly 30 year old heat pump is not pleased

3.93" in the last hour

I don't have data to back it up, but I feel like May is one of our more feast or famine months, not quite in daily storm potential season, but any synoptic systems that we get could drop a bunch over a fairly wide area.

Amazing! Is this how it appeared to the naked eye, or are these enhanced a bit?

Most of the western Piedmont had now received 200-400% of the average rainfall month to date. GSO is now at 8.27", only needing 2.61" to surpass the all time May record set in 1905. The 6z GEFS has 2.3" through the end of the month, so very possible!

Quite a notch but no tor warning

The cells seem a touch close together, will that correct as they move into a more favorable environment?

SPC forecasted initiation around 22z. Now starting to see discreet cells pop up in Western OK

What's this feature showing up on long range radar? The dry line?

High risk expanded south slightly and wind driven moderate risk expanded east

I've never seen a storm with such high DBZ values not get Severe warned. Quite odd! Must be just small hail.

The CPC released the updated summer forecast last week. Probabilities below for the Piedmont: Temp: Highest 10% of years: 14.3% Above average: 45.3% Near average: 34.7% Below average: 19.9% Lowest 10% of years: 3.6% Precip: Highest 10% of years: 15.4% Above average: 43.6% Near average: 32.5% Below average: 23.8% Lowest 10% of years: 5.8%

About as strong of wording as you will see say 6 The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area.