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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    The theme of this year's hurricane season: cinnamon roll
  2. olafminesaw
    Seems to be structural changes rather than an ERC. No signs of a double wind maxima on recon. New convection is trying to wrap around the eye again,looks to be larger.
  3. olafminesaw
    Where the center makes landfall and even just a few miles to the right of center will get much lower surge. Check out this graphic from Ian
  4. olafminesaw
    Intense convection wrapping around the new eye
  5. olafminesaw
    No signs of shear, now that the new eye is established, should have another specimen by this afternoon. I suspect it will hit cat 5 again, but winds may continue to drop before thy go back up again
  6. olafminesaw
    I think just contracting based off radar. Does look less symmetrical but it's far from the radar site so hard to say
  7. olafminesaw
    One big difference is Katrina was already quite large when it reached cat 5. A medium/large major hurricane making landfall in the GOM is going to have tremendous surge potential regardless, but I am not sure the comparison is appropriate.
  8. olafminesaw
    Wow, eye really warming
  9. olafminesaw
    May be just a wobble but a bit more Eastward motion now. At least it might miss the built up barrier islands and brush the national park instead.
  10. olafminesaw
    That gradient is wild. Something like a 40 mb rise in pressure over about 7 miles
  11. olafminesaw
    The 6z Euro is a worst case track for Tampa. Makes landfall right around Clearwater.
  12. olafminesaw
    Gravity waves apparent as the sun rises
  13. olafminesaw
    Any idea how the blob of convection to Milton's NE may have an effect? (if any)
  14. olafminesaw
    Pressure falling like a rock. Winds up but not as dramatically
  15. olafminesaw
    Boom
  16. olafminesaw
    Yeah not good seeing it go through an ERC halfway across the Gulf.
  17. olafminesaw
    The waters it will be traveling over are more typical of mid September. No upwelling from Helene to speak of, especially with the track it's taking.
  18. olafminesaw
    The 6z ensembles well North of the 0z model consensus
  19. olafminesaw
    Good point. To what extent has development made South Florida more vulnerable to freshwater flooding? I feel like I only hear about flash flooding in isolated areas when thunderstorms are training over one area?
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    Thankful for the more reasonable rainfall totals here in the Triad in September. However, we still managed to smash the record for most number of 7"+ months in a year at 5 (Jan, may, Jul, Aug, Sep), with the previous record being 3 (5 instances). We are currently ahead of our 2018 record for rainfall and have a very good chance at a top 3 rainfall year yet again (all of the top three would be set in the last 7 years)
  22. olafminesaw
    https://x.com/james_jinnette1/status/1839625146786599282
  23. olafminesaw
    Pretty shocking that SC has surpassed GA in outages
  24. olafminesaw
    Storm of the Century vibes
  25. olafminesaw
    I mean 105 to 125 in 8-12 hours is certainly not as big a hurdle as y'all make it sound. Not to say it's going to happen. But the bottom line is a major hurricanes is likely at landfall which is not going to have a much different impact than a low end cat 4
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