olafminesaw

This looks decent I think

The 18z GFS is much more Euro-like in it's evolution. It's just a little too strung out/suppressed to get the job done.

Verbatim the Euro would be pretty nasty in the Triad. Freezing rain turning to snow and temps dropping into the teens overnight. Now it has support from the ensembles. This is right around the time frame where we tend to see models start to put the pieces together, so it's all about watching the trend. Still it's a delicate set-up, even with the advantage of some legit arctic air on the backside of the system. We need this to become a southern stream dominant system and slow down as much as possible.

Yeah we just need the energy to consolidate to the south with less NS involvement. Nice not to see an overly amped up system.

It would certainly be disappointing to not get anything out of this period

12 z GFS is looking much improved for our 15th threat. The trend has been to bring the cutter further south and East which in turn has pulled the cold air further South and East

Single day precip records for January are 3.06 at GSO and 2.96 at Charlotte. It seems likely one or both records will fall

Consensus for 925mb winds to be 50-75kts across all of the eastern half of NC. The 6z HRRR leads me to believe that perhaps gusts over about 45 mph will have trouble making it to the surface without convection, which is probably why RAH is a little conservative. The globals are still gungho on 50 mph+ gusts.

On cue, the GFS serves up a day 9 overrunning event

Is a gravity wave event going to occur in the rear exit of the jet streak? It's looking pretty potent.

Right now the highest winds are timed with the slug of moisture. This would elevate the threat beyond what we normally would get from baraclonic winds, along with a small amount of instability. 925mb sustained winds are 65-75 mph around that same frame so some of that would be brought down by any convection. Maybe it could gust to 50 especially East of the Triad.

Might as well drive a little further up to fancy gap. Should be a couple degrees colder.

AccuWeather is calling for a trace to a millimeter of zr. Not sure if there's really a difference, but seems about right!

No snow, but the Tuesday system looks kinda fun

I mean, I feel like the whole narrative that we've had these fantastic day 10 looks only to have them disappear, isn't really true. We've had way less fantasy storms than normal, and the pattern hasn't really been all that great on ensembles at range either, just kinda oscillating between pretty good and not so great.There's been flashes of promise but nothing crazy. Now we're actually seeing a pretty legit -NAO and -AO at range. Not saying it all couldn't be a mirage after all, just think it's probably not fair to totally discount the modeled pattern change either.

Posted an Eric Webb tweet the other day that said half of all major snowstorms in NC happen after Feb 15th in El Nino years

The 6z Euro ticks colder and would bring a few hours of light ZR to the piedmont. One thing working in our favor is it will be quiet cold tonight and tomorrow and should drop below freezing well before onset. Sometimes we do well in these setups even with a retreating high. However, we will almost certainly go above freezing by mid morning at the latest, so hopefully we can get a pretty scene on the trees anyway

Based on the timing of the NAO/AO flip to negative (pretty much a lock at this point), and the lag time typically involved, I'd be looking for a storm threat around the 15th. The Pacific is likely not going to cooperate, but it should be a better pattern coupled with peak Climo

A little front end snow with the next system. Something to watch anyway as the upcoming storm tending south/weaker

FYI, It seems the precip type maps for the RGEM and Canadian are broken, at least on Pivotal. It's showing ZR with temps in the upper 30s.

The 12z icon is much colder at the surface and a bit south as well. Several hours of zr including when the heavier precip moves in. Verbatim would have trouble accreating with temps around 31/32, but a trend to watch with the remainder of the 12z models. Not our typical significant ice storm setup, with limited cold air and heavy precip limiting the potential to a moderate event at most.

It's just *not* looking like our storm for the Piedmont (sorry, can't type tonight) Still noteworthy, the next 10 days could get 2024 off to a very wet start

Steps in the right direction FWIW