olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Juicy next week or so thanks largely to Ian
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Found the weenie I do feel like when the NHC calls for RI, they're usually right. Delayed, but probably not denied
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Looks like a classic setup for flooding for somewhere in the SE
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Probably strong enough though that it will still be a significant impact.
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Shrimp incoming in 6-12 hours
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Seems like a pretty good analog:
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There's some missing data, but Sable island recorded a gust of 120 mph last night
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46 mph
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Yeah, obviously, that's a highly unlikely outcome. Has there ever been a storm that's made multiple landfalls in the US as a major? (excluding barrier islands etc.)
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This explains it pretty well:
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Still moving right of the track, but starting to turn more North. May be a case of the storm being stronger and resisting the pull of the trough?
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The GFS has landfall in FL right around the same time that the Euro has landfall in NC
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Looks like it's tracking about 50 miles east of the cone right now (part of the reason Bermuda got hit so hard). We'll see how this effects Novia Scotia going forward. Moving more NE than NNE as the official track had projected
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The GFS actually shows equally high wind gusts on the West side of the track. Halifax gusts over 80 mph
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It makes landfall in, wait for it...Nova Scotia
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Absolutely. A stalled out front and a slow moving cyclone, with already signs of a PRE showing up on the models is a little concerning.
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It would seem I was wrong, it just took all day yesterday for the EWRC to complete and now the eye just needs to wrap convection around and contract. The satellite ended up being misleading in this case https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_07L/web/mainpage.html
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Seems to be some kind of constant EWRC process that keeps repeating. Already a partial secondary eyewall.
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Models starting to tighten up on a LA to FL landfall. Actually pretty good agreement at this range
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Wonky structure issues continue
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Don't know how the HWRF does with hybrid systems, but...
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Perhaps an EWRC. Not exactly a classic structure either way, although still obviously a solid core
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The latest NHC track makes landfall on Cape Breton Island as a 100 mph cat 2, with up to 10 inches of rain. No comments on surve yet, although the rocky coastline will help mitigate surge.
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That really is the norm for landfalling gulf storms. Particularly in October
