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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    A word of caution: I've noticed over the years the GFS has a tendency to over amplify the back side of late phasing storms for the Piedmont. This feels to me like more of a coastal VA threat, although we normally don't get the trough to dig down to the Gulf Coast in these scenarios, so that helps
  2. olafminesaw
    Yeah, basically the more the trough digs on the first storm the more it sets up the second storm to take a favorable southerly track. For once I'm not overly concerned about suppression after the cold air is established
  3. olafminesaw
    DESI has a phenomenal dashboard that allows you to generate custom graphs and maps for models, including using the national blend of models(below), AI models etc.
  4. olafminesaw
    Throwback!
  5. olafminesaw
    Yep!
  6. olafminesaw
    We've had some, they just haven't panned out.
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
  9. olafminesaw
    Reloads nicely after the 15th as well. Very cold run after the pattern change
  10. olafminesaw
    Feels like late phase has been a big issue for years now. In fact, I can't remember the last big juicy coastal winter storm (regardless of precip type)
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
    I'm also thinking the storm around the 15th is more of a Northeast threat and sets the stage for more southerly storm tracks
  13. olafminesaw
    A lot may hinge on the NAO cooperating as to whether this pattern is legit or not
  14. olafminesaw
    Seems like the sort of pattern where we may get frequent shots at light accumulation but no big storm threat.
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    All three major indices favorable (albeit near neutral mid-month), may be hard for models to resolve
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    Yeah, as much as the concern has been that cold dumps to our West, it seems like the trend today has been to make any cold air in North America disappear
  19. olafminesaw
    Given the -NAO, we would have to really be cursed not to get any cold air in Jan. Linking up the moisture with the cold is of course another matter
  20. olafminesaw
    GEFS and AI GEFS both showing cold around the 12th, while the EPS is warm
  21. olafminesaw
    Obviously seems like a kick the can situation but beyond the first reshuffle looking good on the AI GEFS
  22. olafminesaw
    Yeah, even if PNA developed as advertised yesterday, there is usually a lag before we see impacts. Now that too is in question. Anyone know how PNA works together with Enso? I would think they would be interrelated.
  23. olafminesaw
    My wife's home town in Wyoming broke it's record for Christmas eve by 9 degrees and tied the all time December high temp of 65
  24. olafminesaw
    Eric webb is one of the best, However he does tend to be a bit reactionary
  25. olafminesaw
    Record low humidity this afternoon for this date and nearly for the month of December (around 15%)
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