olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Also have to differentiate between short term and long term drought. Long term drought isn't a huge deal around here because we don't have the issues with limited supply the West has. It seems our short term drought is mostly gone after today in NC.
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Nasty ice if anything. Bleh
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Check out the consistency from the Euro AI
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The Euro AI has been insistent over the past couple days on snow next week for southern VA to the NC border. Seems unlikely with few other models on board but the UKMET joined the party and has snow for north/central NC
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Next bit of interesting weather is some training of heavy rain cells Thurs/Friday that could lead to flash flooding concerns over a narrow stripe
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Some signs of life in the long range. Maybe some kind of frozen slop about a week from now. Not entirely sure if I want that to happen.
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Looks like a wallops island launch viewing map
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Here's the comparison, lol
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Crazy model runs for the mid-atlantic. GFS has 30" for DC and the Euro 2". 3-4 days out now.
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Yeah, this doesn't look like our storm because of the little bit of SE ridge, but this does have the classic look of a big storm from DC to NYC. Haven't had one of those in a while (from a coastal anyway)
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It's been creeping up over the last few weeks, but not enough to reach close to Nino before late spring at the earliest. Of course we could still have a nino like pattern in a neutral Enso state as we saw a few weeks ago
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For kicks and giggles
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My definition is any of the following criteria being met. Of course no winter meets these criteria consecutively, but the end of winter in my book is whenever the last date of one of these criteria is met 1) snow/sleet accumulation 1"+ 2) ice accumulation more than a light glaze 3) high temps in the 30s for 3+ days in a 5 day stretch
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Sad situation, a direct impact on a metro area of 500k+
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In all seriousness, something must have changed this winter, they used to hold back graphics until they are publicly released, now the automated maps seem to be available at any time (presumably based on the NBM). If so, it's not great for these graphics to be potentially shared all over social media before they get any kind of human review.
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I simply could not be less enthused for 33 and rain
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The perfect track just no cold air. Back to our regularly scheduled programing I suppose
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EPS did trend colder, but need significantly colder air to get meaningful frozen precip. Would target mid-20s dewpoints in place at least leading up to the event. CAD over performing often means temps held in the upper 30s instead of torching to the 50s around here, without a strong high and decently cold source air. Both are kinda meh on consensus right now
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I do think it's over for significant snowfall, at least south of central VA. Would be an ice storm and anything significant seems like a stretch at this point in time
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Severe or ice, who knows?
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Flurries in Greensboro
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It's been incredibly consistent in that general look over the past couple days
