olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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A big improvement from 6z for most everyone.
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When you get a deep moisture feed, with a high pressing down it's a phenomenal pattern, regardless of what the indices are.
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The crazy thing, is how cold the FV3 GFS is already at the surface. It won't take a perfect track. A less than ideal track would make for a lot more sleet than modeled I imagine, because there are so often sneaky warm layers with transfers. Even if things trend pretty far north, we should get something on the front end, which is a big bonus. You know you're in a good spot when you're equally worried about suppression as you are it coming to far north.
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If the eye were less ragged we'd be talking about yutu returning to its former glory. There's pretty good model agreement now on a track similar to Mangkhut. I feel for the small communities trying to rebuild there, if it does indeed make landfall (hopefully with some substantial weakening beforehand). -
This gas station awning is blue shed 2.0:
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Seems like land interaction forced it south, and now it's readjusting back to the expecting heading.
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Yet another Arabian peninsula landfall, it's looking rather impressive on satellite and radar.
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It comes down to timing and rates. Without both I'm not optimistic. But the high end potential of 6-10" would be epic. I love low probability events when they work out.
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Light non-accumulating snow is going to ruin my love of snow I swear. It may as well be drizzle.
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It's good to see some decent snow with the deform band on the HRRR. Hours and hours of +/- 40 degree rain has been thoroughly depressing. If this storm were in January we would have probably had an epic sleet storm.
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Just a little different, lol
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Yes
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A warm nose is showing up this run. Verbatim would be pretty epic, but I don't like the look in general.
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My concern is that there is less cold air aloft than previously modeled. IMBY the column doesn't get colder than 27-28 on the Euro. So I could see flipping back to rain in the lighter precip. (assuming we even get heavy enough precip. to get snow.
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It's back (would be a special kind of brutal verbatim IMBY)
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Let's get this party started
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Sorry guys for bringing the storm south with me (got back to Newport News this afternoon). It's gonna be epic. I really think Pittsburgh winters kinda suck. After a couple little snowfalls they start to get depressing because they happen so often. The big ones are really what make me love snow. Might as well live somewhere in the Mid Atlantic where its sunny sometimes.
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Perhaps the most beautiful cat 2 I've ever seen.
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Still no word from the island, 5 days later. It's a rather worrisome situation to say the least.
