olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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RAH still going with all snow during the daytime Sunday. Seems pretty unlikely at this point.
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Yes. 3 hours later is a different story
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Warmer overall, but less of a warm nose this time, ends up evening out.
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Much more of a pronounced warm nose this run, FWIW
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The NAM is definitely closer to all snow for Guilford county. The NW corner even stays all snow. Move the sn/ip line 20 miles south, and we're golden.
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No warm nose at 700 mb on the 12z HRRR. It's not really reliable at this range, but good new nonetheless.
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The 0z Euro has heaviest snow in Greensboro from 6am to 2pm with snowfall rates in the 1.5-2" per hour range at peak, if we can stay snow until the heaviest banding comes through, I will be more than content.
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Whoa, it's like 200 miles east of the NAM
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When you get heavy freezing rain a good portion doesn't actually accreate. You can cut those totals on those maps by at least half.
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It's just the arbitrary point where the absolute center is moving around in the broad area where the center is. Look at the mslp lines, they don't move around much.
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Mid levels are significantly better on the 3km NAM in the Triad than the 12km. Impressive banding too.
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It's going to be painful watching the sleet line in Greensboro. I think it may end up setting up over Guilford county for a long while.
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My only complaint is, as I understand, a more consolidated low may push up mid level temps.
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The column is less saturated, wait for the heavy precip to arrive before comparing
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Even more dry at 30, Virga city:
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Lots of mid level dry air (this at GSO)
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I never know quite what to make of the RGEM. It always seems to have strange convective blobs.
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It's great that the majority of the heavy precip will be falling during the daytime.
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The SREF is an awful model. Really Useless. Worse than useless.
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He's not exactly known for his attention to detail.
