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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Two days in a row, GSO hit 89. Still no 90 degree day. Saturday could be our last chance to hit the mark until around June 20th, which would be rather unusual.
  2. olafminesaw
    15/8/4
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    They need to work on their map legibility
  6. olafminesaw
    The hires models are showing a band setting up and training over one area somewhere in the Piedmont. Wherever it gets stuck is going to get pounded with at least 2-4" through tommorow morning. As of now concensus seems to put the bullseye somewhere in between the Triad and Triangle up to around Roanoke
  7. olafminesaw
    Might as well make a thread. Get your paddle.
  8. olafminesaw
    I'm surprised RAH hasn't issued a FFW yet. The NAM would bring storm totals to the 6-8" mark
  9. olafminesaw
    As of now it looks like Thusday morning is when the worst of it will hit for the Piedmont, at least in terms of flooding concerns
  10. olafminesaw
    Wonky
  11. olafminesaw
    Looking from the outside in at this possibly historic storm, I've never seen such a series of weenie runs from the NAM, in terms of low probability outcomes. Of course the NAM is probably wrong, but noon Saturday:
  12. olafminesaw
    Yup
  13. olafminesaw
    Interesting how they cluster in a line from Texas to South Carolina
  14. olafminesaw
    It would seem a line of rain/snow showers could make it over the mountains tommorow midday/afternoon, and perhaps a second wave in the evening. Pretty good agreement from the hires models, but probably too warm for anything that does come through to stick. But I know how stingy the mountains are, so probably only light precip, if that.
  15. olafminesaw
    I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning
  16. olafminesaw
    Radar is starting to fill the dry slot (albeit slowly). I think we can definitely pull off 1-2", 3" if the costal component gets going early enough
  17. olafminesaw
    The wetter HRRR and RGEM have solid precip in the Triad by 12, while the NAM holds back for a few more hours. We shall see which is right, although nothing building on radar just yet
  18. olafminesaw
    Good tends on the HRRR in terms of QPF for N and W, FWIW
  19. olafminesaw
    Yeah, definitely seems to align with models trending towards less moisture pushing North. It should help us though if a good band does move through early on.
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    And the 12z NAM confirms this
  22. olafminesaw
    Yeah, gotta wait for the coastal to take over to get decent rates unfortunately, but at that point it may be pulling away
  23. olafminesaw
    Radar starting to blossom nicely in central TN
  24. olafminesaw
    Yeah, the NAM twins are not really much different, does more to confirm 2-4" is quite attainable
  25. olafminesaw
    The HRRR is mostly useless outside 12 hrs. Even then it runs warm.
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