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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Mostly sleet south of the VA border
  2. olafminesaw
    Yeah, not too thrilled about a thread the needle setup at the front end of a pattern change. And yet, the best chance of the year. Mountains and central VA, a different story though.
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    GSO has now surpassed 2003 to become the second wettest year on record. 1.76" is necessary to surpass 2018. Feels like a much more tame year than 2018, but consistent rainfall had pulled us close. The GEFS has ~1.2" through the end of the year
  5. olafminesaw
    Also seems like the models spitting out high ice totals, like the RGEM, do wonky things with convection.
  6. olafminesaw
    The HRRR is picking up on this is well... Could be interesting, with some pretty wild dynamics. Short lived window though, just before going into a dry slot
  7. olafminesaw
    FWIW, the hires nam was 3-5 degrees too warm this morning
  8. olafminesaw
    Dewpoints on the HRRR are about 6 degrees (mid 20s) colder on the HRRR than the hires nam (low 30s) after sunset Tuesday
  9. olafminesaw
    The biggest detractors from significant icing are temps near or above freezing prior to arrival of precip and heavy precip reducing efficient accreation. Factors in favor are, of course our healthy CAD and also fairly respectably low dewpoints. I would say more than .1-.2" is pretty unlikely outside some isolated spots closer to the mountains.
  10. olafminesaw
    Right up there with radar attenuation...
  11. olafminesaw
    Time to go full weenie?
  12. olafminesaw
    BWI: 11.2" DCA: 8" IAD: 12 .8" RIC: 5.4" Tiebreaker SBY: 5"
  13. olafminesaw
    So far: 101.7 for regular 72.7 greek Got these from http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
  14. olafminesaw
    We seem to have landfall
  15. olafminesaw
    Oof. Still stalled out too
  16. olafminesaw
    Is it possible that the reason Eta was weaker than satellite suggested because of how far south it is? I don't know much about the physics of hurricanes, but I ask because I was wondering if the coriolis effect only played a role in development or also in maintaining intensity
  17. olafminesaw
    Looks like maybe a bit of shear though, on the south side of the circulation? May prevent the eye from organizing very fast. Motion definitely seems more south than west right now
  18. olafminesaw
    Last minute change to 897 mb, 160 kts
  19. olafminesaw
    Kinda terrifying tbh
  20. olafminesaw
    The plane is making good time. Probably half an hour to go. I might be convinced to join team #sub900
  21. olafminesaw
    913, 150 kts
  22. olafminesaw
    I'm guessing it's around 140-150kts atm.
  23. olafminesaw
    Honestly looks kinda like an ERC has not only begun, but is well on it's way to completion. Explains why the eye is getting larger but not clearing out.
  24. olafminesaw
  25. olafminesaw
    looking like current trajectory would put the center of the eye of NO
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