olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Not typical of ice storms to start as plain rain and then drop below freezing (31 in the triad). Part of it's the dry airmass, but still...
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Hear a fair bit of sleet now in Greensboro. Coming down pretty good. Officially a car topper
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Trends
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Is there a way I can invest in a hedge fund for snowy model solutions? Seems like shorting snowfall outputs would be pretty lucrative. There's always next week...
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Playing it close
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Not that it matters, but I can't make sense of Raleigh's forecast. All rain before 4 am then rain/snow. It's totally backwards (although some models do show a bit of back-end snow)
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If the NAM's temp profiles are right, could be a raging sleet storm for many, even with some additional amplification (probably too cold but still) another issue with a more amplified storm in addition to WAA, is a dry slot south of the axis of heavy precip
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Classic sleet sounding. One reason I lean towards more of a moderate impact event is a trend towards colder in the lower levels.
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Nice front end thump on the NAM. .4" qpf in 6 hrs. Temps near freezing. Nice dynamics. A little further north with the banding than I feel comfortable with, but I'd like to lock it in now
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I'm not well versed on jet streaks, but I think this is a good look for the piedmont?
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I can totally understand RAH's hesitancy. Even the 6z NAM never gets temps below freezing. If the NAM plays out as depicted, we certainly would get a few inches accumulation, but I could also easily see a relatively quick changeover to rain or flipping back and forth depending on rates
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The storm seems to have speed up by almost 6 hours since yesterday afternoon. Snow should be wrapping up by around 8 am at the latest in the triad (earlier if we flip to rain).
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Not a whole lot of cold air to work with on the Euro, temps in the mid-30s and some WAA leads to a changeover to sleet thwn rain. Healthy moisture though.
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Fair enough. Maybe it's because I've only lives in the south a few years (and have lucked out on several quality storms in that time), but I would much rather one cold 2" storm that sticks to everything than five 1" grass toppers. But I digress...
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I'm not too enthused about the Saturday night storm. Looks like another sloppy coating to an inch type deal. Overnight too, with not a lot of upside.
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The para GFS brings 1-3" to northern NC and southern VA Sunday. Room for improvement too.
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Radically different look though. Much more northern stream and so a stronger storm on the Icon. It gets organized faster, so the cold is able to wrap into the storm compared with other guidence. The NAM, on the other hand, keeps the two pieces separate.
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Mid 20s and pounding snow in the middle of the day in south georgia. Don't see that every century. Can't imagine what that would yield up this way if the southern stream kicked into gear at the right time
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My theory on that is it has a lot to do with snow cover. The snow never materialized, which makes 5-10 degrees difference. And add another 5 degrees for the models overdoing the effect of snow cover and you get a pretty good swing. On top of that I think the models often don't key in on how much the airmass moderates crossing the mountains.
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Obviously details will change, but that ice is falling at 25-30 degrees (except for of course the southern periphery)
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The new compare models feature on pivotal weather is pretty sick. Anyhow...the Euro has been consistent with a coastal next Sunday and a pretty good cold air mass in place. Can't have the storm to amped or two flat, kinda a thread the needle scenario
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Yeah, I remember someone posting somewhere a map a while back (may have been weatherbell?), that attempted to calculate true accrual.
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Really starts to get established the last couple frames. A strong signal for the climo favored areas
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Classic CAD
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When I see this, I don't for a second think: winter storm incoming
