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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Looks like a cat 3 for sure
  2. olafminesaw
    There should be a mercy rule for these kind of systems
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    Yep, probably not very likely, I feel like it's pretty unusual this time of year.
  5. olafminesaw
    That ULL definitely opens the door for some wokiness to happen. And ULLs are notoriously hard to forecast
  6. olafminesaw
    The GEFS has been quite consistent/reliable thus far
  7. olafminesaw
    People forget how even when the pattern favors a strong Atlantic ridge, storms that come out of the MDR Recurve OTS like 80% of the time, especially strong storms. All it takes is a slight relaxation of the high.
  8. olafminesaw
    Sam's inner core organization is a little slower than expected this morning. May support a slight adjustment south.
  9. olafminesaw
    Some strong to severe storms this evening
  10. olafminesaw
    Anything beyond this is speculation, but... intriguing nonetheless
  11. olafminesaw
    Hmm
  12. olafminesaw
    95L is trying to be the longest surviving cherry ever
  13. olafminesaw
    First wedge of the year! (Yay) Easier to scour out this time of year, but still. Wouldn't be surprised to see temps stay in the mid 70s today in the Triad
  14. olafminesaw
    No thanks What a sad system
  15. olafminesaw
    Seems typically with a large, tilted, fast moving system you tend to see more wind field expansion than an increase in max winds. But I suppose possible the eyewall could reorganize somewhat
  16. olafminesaw
    *sad cricket noises* Anyway, with the MCS that moved through, I doubt we will hit our forecast high of 86 in the triad. Muggy muggy though
  17. olafminesaw
    125 115 940 Cocodrie
  18. olafminesaw
    Hilly terrain, up to about 1000 ft, should halt intensification somewhat for at least a few hours. But hard to believe it will have much of an impact long term
  19. olafminesaw
    The GFS had been pumping out lots of gulf systems a couple days back as well. The signal is there
  20. olafminesaw
    GFS at 33 a tou ch east of 18z. heading for a landfall just east of LI i think
  21. olafminesaw
    Because it's the first model to run and addicts need their fix. Kinda like the SREF for snowstorms. I much prefer looking at the 3km version if I want my fix of complete nonsense
  22. olafminesaw
    Certainly true that it's not yet aligned. But the center is under the edge of the convection and even though convective bursts don't last forever, it should help the system align. Shear is definitely lessened
  23. olafminesaw
    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  24. olafminesaw
    Wow, last few frames convection really started pushing north over the LLC. May be all systems go at this point
  25. olafminesaw
    You see this all the time as Typhoons recurve past Japan. They normally do ramp down pretty quick, but can bring pretty strong winds while looking pathetic on IR
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