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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff.
  2. olafminesaw
  3. olafminesaw
    Drops .5" of precip in three hours with temps at 27 in grrensboro
  4. olafminesaw
    I dunno why. But wowzers. Those are some dynamics
  5. olafminesaw
    I'm on mobile, but the RGEM is as classic an ice storm signal as it gets. Temps don't rise about 30 in the triad for almost the entire event and over 1.5" of precip. The few factors working against significant icing: Rates are a bit heavier this go around and it will be fairly warm and sunny the day before. Also more of the precip will be during the day.
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    FWIW the RGEM absolutely nailed the temps for the prior event at similar lead time: Here is what it is currently showing for the Thursday system:
  8. olafminesaw
    Also of note, the timing of the heaviest icing seems to be in the early morning hours
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
    Yeah, this is definitely a sleet sounding
  11. olafminesaw
    When we can't help but root for an ice storm, because it's all we've got:
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
    Although, it has actually overdone the wedge at times, with this past ice storm. It had us in the mid-20s during the heavy precip, I believe
  14. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile, all of texas is covered in winter storm watch/warning or advisory. Salt in wound
  15. olafminesaw
    Could be a bit of a re-freeze tonight
  16. olafminesaw
    Slug of heavier precip incoming. Looks like it may contain some sleet or such.
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    Pretty significant changes
  19. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I mean, for the Triad every half degree is going to account, especially as the precip is going to be pretty heavy. At 31 degrees, I don't see more than .1-.2" accreation. At 29 I could see .3-.4"
  20. olafminesaw
    Interestingly, if anything the HRRR has backed off somewhat the past couple runs on how cold it gets. Minor differences, but now it seems to hold temps pretty steady throughout the night, instead of dropping further.
  21. olafminesaw
    You can see precise temp (.1 degree increments readings here for different mesonet sites :https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/current.php?station=GSO&network=NC_ASOS
  22. olafminesaw
    Yeah, it's a huge difference between 32 and 30 and between 30 and 28. At 28, everything will freeze solid.
  23. olafminesaw
    Question, does 32 count as a sub-freezing high?
  24. olafminesaw
    This may genuinely be the most miserable 3 day stretch of weather I've experienced. At this point I'm embracing it's extreme suckyness. This kind of pattern only comes around every 5 years or so after all!
  25. olafminesaw
    Light glaze on trees, some residual sleet on elevated surfaces and mulch, roads are just fine in Greensboro (including overpasses)
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