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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    It's really encouraging to see multiple rolls of the dice. I don't think we can put much weight on any one of these modeled storm scenarios yet, but I can't help feeling like something will inevitably shake out in our favor
  2. olafminesaw
    Money
  3. olafminesaw
    Close, but no cigar
  4. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I mean, fair's fair. Gotta bring balance to the force, or whatever
  5. olafminesaw
    Right where we want it
  6. olafminesaw
    Realistically in that scenario the triad and SE would be at least half sleet
  7. olafminesaw
    It seems there's some data issues with the GFS, but showing on the old fashioned NWS site. Wow
  8. olafminesaw
    I'd be shocked if y'all didn't get any more snow. But I'll take my annual fifteen minutes of Fame
  9. olafminesaw
    Not much cold air to speak of though
  10. olafminesaw
    Seems the only kind of snow we can get these past few years is 5:1 patchy stuff
  11. olafminesaw
    Seems we'll be in a bit of a dry slot for the next couple hours in the Triad, still, should get several good hours of snow
  12. olafminesaw
    Great sun angle though!
  13. olafminesaw
    Could end up a lot like the Feb 2020 "storm" (in the Triad)
  14. olafminesaw
    Yep, lol
  15. olafminesaw
    I myself enjoy the snow maps, but...not very helpful other than for trends
  16. olafminesaw
    Brutal cutoff. 50 more miles and we're in business
  17. olafminesaw
    NAM a tick back south again and quite amped
  18. olafminesaw
    If you average the GFS, NAM, RGEM and Euro at 18z you end up with something decent, FWIW. Doesn't mean that we won't see models adjust North more, but with the current pattern, I wouldn't necessarily count on it
  19. olafminesaw
    Yeah, and temps above freezing for the duration (outside any particular heavy rates.). Seems like relying on rates fails about twice as often as it succeeds, at least in the piedmont. Also, I'm not yet buying the amped up version the GFS is selling, which is our best shot at significant accumulation. The 18z GFS illustrates how an amped storm fails,by climbing too far North. It's a real tightrope. I suspect the hires NAM Is closest to how it plays out, but who knows?
  20. olafminesaw
    Seems someone somewhere will get something frozen.
  21. olafminesaw
    This shows what our best case scenario looks like more or less:
  22. olafminesaw
    The current threat falls more into the Tennessee valley sub I guess?
  23. olafminesaw
    Might take a while to resolve this one...
  24. olafminesaw
  25. olafminesaw
    From drought to Flooding if the GFS is to be believed. The euro is much more flat and progressive. Ensembles support the idea of more reasonable 1-2" of rain, which fits better with the current pattern
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