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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    The trend is in part due to the shift of the heaviest axis of precip eastward. The model has stayed rock solid with temps, aside from adjustments to the periphery and this run did push the freezing line further south, with all of wake county getting in on the action
  2. olafminesaw
    Here's a trend loop for a blend of models over the past couple days of model cycles near peak storm
  3. olafminesaw
    I like how their scale includes up to 10"+. It's like they're allowing for the possibility of a day after tomorrow thing
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    If you don't have generator, I would recommend going out and buying a camping stove. I think the ones that run on gasses other than propane can be used indoors if in a well ventilated area, but don't quote me on that.
  6. olafminesaw
    FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff.
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    Drops .5" of precip in three hours with temps at 27 in grrensboro
  9. olafminesaw
    I dunno why. But wowzers. Those are some dynamics
  10. olafminesaw
    I'm on mobile, but the RGEM is as classic an ice storm signal as it gets. Temps don't rise about 30 in the triad for almost the entire event and over 1.5" of precip. The few factors working against significant icing: Rates are a bit heavier this go around and it will be fairly warm and sunny the day before. Also more of the precip will be during the day.
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
    FWIW the RGEM absolutely nailed the temps for the prior event at similar lead time: Here is what it is currently showing for the Thursday system:
  13. olafminesaw
    Also of note, the timing of the heaviest icing seems to be in the early morning hours
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
    Yeah, this is definitely a sleet sounding
  16. olafminesaw
    When we can't help but root for an ice storm, because it's all we've got:
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    Although, it has actually overdone the wedge at times, with this past ice storm. It had us in the mid-20s during the heavy precip, I believe
  19. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile, all of texas is covered in winter storm watch/warning or advisory. Salt in wound
  20. olafminesaw
    Could be a bit of a re-freeze tonight
  21. olafminesaw
    Slug of heavier precip incoming. Looks like it may contain some sleet or such.
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    Pretty significant changes
  24. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I mean, for the Triad every half degree is going to account, especially as the precip is going to be pretty heavy. At 31 degrees, I don't see more than .1-.2" accreation. At 29 I could see .3-.4"
  25. olafminesaw
    Interestingly, if anything the HRRR has backed off somewhat the past couple runs on how cold it gets. Minor differences, but now it seems to hold temps pretty steady throughout the night, instead of dropping further.
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