olafminesaw

Seems to support FL wind data. I would go 70 mph

Looks like there's some Saharan dust on pushing in from the South East of the circulation. Any chance it gets ingested and effects the system?

When's the next recon? Seems like really infrequent recon for a possible landfilling US cane

Late to release, the 12z UKMET ensembles:

yeah, a foot of rain at just about any interval is really rare for boston.

I'm guessing recon data will be integrated in the 0z suite?

Best used for sniffing out alternative solutions IMO, which means it's definitely way off base sometimes

It intializes way too weak. It's at 1012 mb at 11 am, while the 11 am advisory has it at 998 mb

Good point, although you can see how even at slow speeds, it will traverse cooler water relatively quickly

Quite warm SSTs. Also at the time of year when water temp is warmest. I also feel like climo favors later in the year with more of a subtropical transition. I still think a direct impact is less than 20% right now

Looking on the NOAA database at storms within 100 miles of it's current position, there are hardly any that made east coast landfalls. The only ones that did, north of Florida were 1933 hurricane (the strongest one) Ginger (1971) Hermine (2004) (probably the only one that could be a plausible track)

I was thinking the same, looking at radar. I'm wondering if once it started moving NW, it was more exposed to shear. Should be back to due north pretty soon

Seems to have jogged to the west over the past hour or so

In the same region that got smashed by cat 4 Matthew too

They don't think it be like it is, but it do. I feel like the HWRF actually had zero use other than for mature systems

Looks like the kind of storm that could quickly form a tight core and consolidate after come back over water

That color scale...

Good thing the weather's calm...what a massive radar hole

Nws putting changed into effect on how severe thunderstorm warnings are communicated

Yeah, moderate as a 4/5 on the scale makes no sense. Moderate has always been a significant severe threat, despite the connotation of the word, and even when they only had three categories was probably a poor choice for communicating threat level to the public. So when they forced in a category between slight and moderate they had to choose something that meant "relatively significant", which sounds more severe than "moderate". But in a perfect world this would make more sense: Minimal (green) Slight (yellow) Moderate (orange) High (red) Extreme (magenta) In reality this would be super confusing to everyone to make a switch, so I kinda feel like they should just refer to the color or number as a threat level.

First severe threat In a while, primarily for hail

No mention yet of smoke in the RAH disco yet. Should be impacting our area most Wed-Friday. Mostly high level smoke but probably some impact to air quality/visibility.