olafminesaw

Are probabilities defined as odds of a tornado within a circle who's radius is 25 miles, or as odds that a line segment 25 miles long will be crossed by a tornado?

Especially with rain chances throughout the day and no sun. Definitely reminds me of april 19 2019 (although I think that setup was a lot more CAPE dependent)

For those wondering, blacksburg radar should be back up and running this evening and Raleigh should be back up by the end of Wednesday

This sounding is just....bonkers

Sorry, I was in the wrong thread

Kinda ironic that suppression only becomes a problem when march rolls around

When the NAVGEM is all you've got...

This is a 5/5 on the weenie scale

Big oof

Just need DCA to be the jackpot on a March snowstorm. How hard could it be?

Definitely a classic case of radiation cooling with clear skies and calm winds. Low spots significantly cooler. Made for some heavy frost and icy spots from runoff. Today and tomorrow are classic coat in the morning, t-shirt in the afternoon weather.

EPS Mean snow depth for next week

1031 high in the ohio valley with a low developing in Louisiana on the Euro. Checks chip stack....shoves all in Edit: welp, high slides east and another ice storm for us (and yes, I realize models are mostly useless at this range)

I'm usually fully convinced this will be the time I won't get sucked in, but... approximately one model cycle later I'm fully emotionally invested. Might as well go full weenie now and get it out of the way

Run from it..dread it... Destiny arrives just the same

Setting aside the noise in the models, 35/22 i(at the airport) s a pretty good place to be (several degrees cooler than the HRRR). My only thought is if precip holds back, dewpoints may have a chance to creep up without a corresponding drop in temperature.

18z models trended a touch warmer

Looks like clouds may hold off until well after sunset north of I40.

I think where we do see this sometimes is the persistence of the wedge despite strong WAA aloft. The models erode the cold too quickly, even in the short range. I think a couple general rules of thumb are that during these kinds of events, where the temp ends up after the column is fully saturated is where it tends to stay. I could see places in the triad staying in the 30-31 range all day long, but never really dropping below 30. Also, it seems plausible that we would see some sleet, which the HRRR is picking up on. THe opposite happens a lot where a sneaky warm layer leads to sleet, but we may have a sneaky cold layer that makes for sleet instead of ZR (see sounding below). Finally the drying trend has been real. This is the main culprit for why the raw zr outputs have decrease for many. I suspect, in the end this will lead to a more impactful event , with more time for accreation, except for those in the zone between Wilkesboro and Winston, where it may stay relatively dry.

Wedge really building in at the end of the run

The thing is, storm track doesn't make much of a difference, with the high locked in place. Of course, it's quite possible the models are overdoing the strength of the wedge, but I wouldn't count on it.

At this point, it's equally important to track dewpoints and cloud cover throughout the day as it is to look at the models. Right now dewpoints are running a degree or two higher than the NWS forecast and some high clouds are moving towards the piedmont.

Accuweather forecast is wild