olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Drought to worsen and fire conditions ramp up this weekend with warm temps, dewpoints in the low 50s and breezy conditions. Some signs of a more seasonally average shower/storm chances returning late next week. Hopefully the quick ramp up towards EL nino over the next few weeks will help to shake up the pattern and break down the ridge
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It also is peaking earlier than normal, so may be coming down towards moderate by Winter. Hard to say
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Probably somewhere in-between, although there's not a lot of analogs for a strong summer El Nino
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Yeah not looking good. Ensembles not much better
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Oof
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Lock it in
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90% of the SE is in at least moderate drought for the first time since the drought monitor data began in 2000. Other years had more coverage of severe drought (2012, 2007, 2002), but the overall drought coverage is unprecedented.
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This one looks more accurate than the one u posted a few weeks ago
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Probably will be a bit quite for a while...unless the GFS is to be believed
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I feel like ceiling on this event was always high, but in recent years the SPC has moved away from their old approach of staying conservative and ramping up the categories until day of. Now they try and predict what the day 1 probabilities should be two to three days out. The old method they would have gone with an enhanced yesterday and then held off on a moderate this morning knowing the CAMs were showing the threat diminished.
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Florida may be America's armpit, but phoenix is America's air fryer.
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Seems like maybe the RDU hot spot got corrected?
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If nothing else I'm looking forward to waking up with temps in the mid 60s and dropping into the 40s by mid day. Don't get that very often. Also the fact we are even talking about the possibility of flakes on the backside of a front with a low end severe threat is pretty crazy.
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Hmm...
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Obviously I'd bet against snow, but the upcoming cold shot looks legit on most models
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Gotta lure out the bugs and then freeze them solid
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Snowfall totals now that snow chances have dropped to near zero until next winter
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Also have to differentiate between short term and long term drought. Long term drought isn't a huge deal around here because we don't have the issues with limited supply the West has. It seems our short term drought is mostly gone after today in NC.
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Nasty ice if anything. Bleh
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Check out the consistency from the Euro AI
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The Euro AI has been insistent over the past couple days on snow next week for southern VA to the NC border. Seems unlikely with few other models on board but the UKMET joined the party and has snow for north/central NC
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Next bit of interesting weather is some training of heavy rain cells Thurs/Friday that could lead to flash flooding concerns over a narrow stripe
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Some signs of life in the long range. Maybe some kind of frozen slop about a week from now. Not entirely sure if I want that to happen.
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