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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    About that outlier...
  2. olafminesaw
    The CFS weeklies agree on the timeframe of the shift to a wetter than normal period. The long range GEFS is showing more near normal
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    Counting only hurricanes making landfall at hurricane strength between the western panhandle and tampa: 17-26 5 07-16 1 97-06 2 87-96 2 77-86 1 67-76 3
  5. olafminesaw
    Yeah it's pretty comical
  6. olafminesaw
    Yeah it's always been November but I kinda expected more of a ramp up. Maybe that was a false expectation
  7. olafminesaw
    Dry as a bone the next couple of weeks
  8. olafminesaw
    This one goes through the full event
  9. olafminesaw
    Raleigh was squarely in the screw zone this time around
  10. olafminesaw
    Just hit an inch at PTI!
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
    What a difference 8 hours makes
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
    I think there's going to be two factors at play leading to steady state through landfall: baroclonic forcing leading to pressure drop (seeing now), and shear weakening one half of the storm allowing dry air in and an expansion of the wind field
  16. olafminesaw
    Wow, confirmation from the second plane too, 951.5 at least. So probably ~956mb
  17. olafminesaw
    Whoa, need confirmation from the drop, but 952.8 MB extrap , vs the pass before at 958.0 (drop was 963)
  18. olafminesaw
    The Nokia 3310 of hurricanes
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    It's way out there, but the NAM has a pretty nasty signature for tornadoes on the back end on Sunday
  21. olafminesaw
    This radar image from recon seems to refute any signs of ERC that microwave indicated a few hours earlier
  22. olafminesaw
    Destin has a bunch of dense housing and touristy buildings/hotels right on/near the beach too, one of the more vulnerable areas that's more urban
  23. olafminesaw
    Seemingly no pressure rose yet. First pass 957 extrap
  24. olafminesaw
    Kinda looks like a double eyewall has appeared?
  25. olafminesaw
    Good writeup on Opal here, provides an excellent analog for impacts, albeit Opal was a category stronger at peak and landfall. Supports the idea of 10 ft storm surge and 100 mph + gusts at landfall along the immediate coast with hurricane Force gusts just inland https://www.weather.gov/mob/opal
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