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olafminesaw

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  1. olafminesaw
    Raging ice storm 18z Euro
  2. olafminesaw
    Doesn't get much better than that
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    Coming down steady in S Greensboro but no stickage yet. Thermometer says 36, but usually runs a degree or two warm
  5. olafminesaw
    Something to keep in mind Tommorow, there will likely be two pushes of moisture, one in the early morning and one early after noon with a dry slot in between. The early afternoon is the more likely period to see snowfall/accumulation so patience will be key.
  6. olafminesaw
    GFS at 18z (6z run) vs actual. Handling temps well so far, just a little too aggressive with the cold front
  7. olafminesaw
    Temps running about 3 degrees below forecast so far today. May help Tommorow if that trend can hold
  8. olafminesaw
    You can see how dynamic lift cools the column on the GFS. A little suspect TBH, but not out of the question
  9. olafminesaw
    Also colder (then 6z anyway) a bit of a double edged sword, which is why there isn't much upside with this one
  10. olafminesaw
    Approximate cutoff between what will largely fall as rain vs mostly snow (assuming the NAM's temp profiles are correct) Within the snow zone, a coating to half an inch is possible with a small chance of more if banding develops.
  11. olafminesaw
    850 temps at onset favor snow West of 85 and rain East. Doesn't push the cold air East until after most of the moisture has exited. Just something to watch Tommorow morning
  12. olafminesaw
    This has a the makings of a big surprise for Tidewater VA
  13. olafminesaw
    Approaching landfall as a Cat 5 Flizzard
  14. olafminesaw
    The funny part is a band of rain is supposed to roll through here tomorrow
  15. olafminesaw
    I think he could very well be right, if as usual cold air takes longer than expected to bleed over the mountains. However,I do feel we could overcome with decent rates and get a coating or so as far SE as RAH
  16. olafminesaw
    I am an optimist at heart but I will believe above normal precip when I see it
  17. olafminesaw
    Another tick north on the Euro
  18. olafminesaw
    It helps that sun angle is still relatively low and ground temps should be fairly cold with how cold it's been.
  19. olafminesaw
    Hres RGEM
  20. olafminesaw
    Third wet non-accumulating snow of the year? At least we do that well
  21. olafminesaw
    Nah, we need a place to crash out regardless that's not the main thread
  22. olafminesaw
    It's pretty wild that coastal VA is looking at rain while SE Georgia might be the jackpot for snow
  23. olafminesaw
    I do think rates will over perform somewhere and there will be a surprise, in a narrow band. Just impossible to nail down where until Sunday
  24. olafminesaw
    My deep dive analysis on the 12z model suite can be found below:
  25. olafminesaw
    Thermals were actually a touch colder this run on the GFS
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