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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Right? It's actually a piece of energy leftover from last weekend's storm that swings around and becomes the northern stream energy
  2. olafminesaw
    You know something is going right when the mid Atlantic forum starts stirring up trouble in here
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    He has a point, we are still in a relatively delicate position. However, spread will continue to narrow. If we can hold until Tommorow nights runs, we'll be feeling pretty good.
  5. olafminesaw
    Listen, if we have to worry about sleet cutting into our totals, we're talking some pretty epic totals.
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    Oh my...
  8. olafminesaw
    It serves as an appetizer to the rest of the globals, but is hot garbage
  9. olafminesaw
    There really aren't huge differences between the EUro and GFS, wouldn't take much to trend towards a big storm or towards nothing: EURO GFS
  10. olafminesaw
    12Z Full phase: Canadian, GFS, Partial/late Phase: Euro⏫, Euro AI, AI GFS No phase: UKMET⏬, ICON, NEXT model⏬ Confidence is growing in the partial phase scenario, but all options still on the table
  11. olafminesaw
    It's getting confused with the last storm I think. It mentions a warm nose and considerable freezing rain threat for NC when I ask it about the 12 Euro
  12. olafminesaw
    Everything trended West/slower with the last storm, so not entirely unreasonable to expect
  13. olafminesaw
    EPS also looked improved. Just waiting on NEXT to wrap up the 12z suite
  14. olafminesaw
    Every decent storm has a "back away from the ledge" Euro run. Again, late phase/moderate snow for the Piedmont seems much more likely than the GFS solution, but a 2-4" sub-forum wide snowfall with temps in the teens and some upside is what we've needed for a long time
  15. olafminesaw
    Euro AI also jumps east. Probably about time to take the GFS around back and put it out of its misery
  16. olafminesaw
    What we are seeing is the ensemble members having decent spread between the three camps, so when we see the OP runs jump back and forth, they are just reflecting that spread. For that reason, I would not be surprised to see the Euro come back West, just be aware that does not mean it is necessarily trending positively, just jumping around within the spread of outcomes
  17. olafminesaw
    Sure! I'll update after the 12z Suite. 12z UKMET further East, paused too late, looks a lot like the Euro
  18. olafminesaw
    A bit further East, but still in the favorable phase camp
  19. olafminesaw
    That goes in the weenie runs HOF along with that run that GFS run that dropped two feet four days out with the last storm
  20. olafminesaw
    ICON a step closer towards phasing but not quite there
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
    As it stands: Full phase: Canadian, GFS, UKMET(borderline, but just gets it done) Partial/late Phase: Euro AI, AI GFS, NEXT model No phase: Euro, ICON
  23. olafminesaw
    There's also the possibility of a partial phase that would enhance the ULL snowfall and then hit coastal areas hard (particularly along a line East of greenville NC to Hampton Roads). I think that's probably slightly more likely than the Euro solution of a complete whiff on the phase and much more likely than the full phase the GFS is showing
  24. olafminesaw
    Always bet on a missed phase.
  25. olafminesaw
    Oof
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