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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    How is that even possible? Must be some kind of freezing drizzle showing up at ground at ground level
  2. olafminesaw
    That is just typical of this storm. Just barely over the line right as the precip starts
  3. olafminesaw
    Wet bulb temp https://www.omnicalculator.com/physics/wet-bulb
  4. olafminesaw
    Nothing yet in South Greensboro. Moisture finally building in though
  5. olafminesaw
    It's a testament to the wedge how the column. Is slowly moistening but the dewpoint dropping.
  6. olafminesaw
    Even if it's not showing precip, freezing drizzle can still accumulate on surfaces
  7. olafminesaw
    Soundings are almost identical but the HRRR depicts differently on the precip type maps
  8. olafminesaw
    Check out the warm nose this morning in Arkansas
  9. olafminesaw
    Models had been showing later for the heavy moisture to arrive. That dinnertime start time was likely based on light precip possibilities and also accounts for trying to get people off the road in case it starts early
  10. olafminesaw
    The latest HRRR brings onset much earlier.
  11. olafminesaw
    What makes me nervous is the Triad always is the coldest in wedge situations (even compared to 50 miles west), that last hand of heavy rain may come through with temps in the mid 20s. No bueno
  12. olafminesaw
    Over a third of the American population is now under a winter storm warning
  13. olafminesaw
    https://tinyurl.com/ypmmjduh Lots of fun data to play around with here
  14. olafminesaw
    These are for Greensboro
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    Worst case 90th percentile map from RAH
  17. olafminesaw
    This seems plausible with the possibility of that cutoff shifting north or south
  18. olafminesaw
    Unfortunately the dry slot may mean freezing drizzle early that would otherwise be sleet. In general global models struggle with QPF distribution,so while I don't think the cutoff of heaviest precip is nailed down, I would tend to disregard the way the globals broad brush uniform heavy precip
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    NAM actually has a band of very heavy sleet across the area. I think with the intensity of the WAA and the moisture feed it is likely that the dry slot won't be as significant factor as normally is the case with a miller B.
  21. olafminesaw
    REFS Plumes For Greensboro VS Raleigh at hour 60, Raleigh more of a ZR sounding while GSO more of a sleet
  22. olafminesaw
    Thanks! Gets confusing to the public when maybe an area under a winter storm warning could get more ice than an ice storm warning, when ice is the more serious impact to prepare for
  23. olafminesaw
    How do they decide between winter storm warning and ice storm warning? If ice storm criteria is met it will always be ice storm warning?
  24. olafminesaw
    Is it just me or has the HRRR been performing quite poorly lately? I guess it should do well with showing the CAD evolution regardless of exact details
  25. olafminesaw
    Yeah pretty much, at the surface anyway. Stronger CAD despite not really jumping south at all
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