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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Also worth noting the GFS is an outlier against it's own ensembles
  2. olafminesaw
    Actually some consensus starting to emerge. Aside from the stubborn GFS of course
  3. olafminesaw
    The Google models have been really consistent
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    Focus is naturally on whether this will be a US threat, but I am very concerned about possible impacts of a slow moving hurricane passing directly over the Caribbean islands. Particularly Haiti which is under a significant humanitarian disaster from ongoing gang violence and political turmoil
  6. olafminesaw
    And the Sandhills all the way to near the coast. Just inland from Jaxonville got down into the upper 30s
  7. olafminesaw
    Alas seems pretty paltry West of I95
  8. olafminesaw
    Pretty crazy how closely 2015 matches to this season
  9. olafminesaw
    Could be the first season since 2015 without a land falling US hurricane. Ironic given that 2015 featured Joaquin, which like Imelda was forecasted to hook into the coast from the Bahamas a few days out but exited stage right instead
  10. olafminesaw
    No landfall would be a big win for the Euro AI
  11. olafminesaw
    I think it has a lot more to do with slower development of Imelda and slower speed
  12. olafminesaw
    Models haven't really been showing meaningful organization for another 24 hours or so, so we appear to be on track
  13. olafminesaw
    Pretty grim for a mean
  14. olafminesaw
    I could see in a setup like this a primary flood zone near/North of where the center stalls, as well as a secondary flood zone where banding sets up away from the core of the system. With onshore flow and moisture being wrung out between the storm and the HP it the secondary banding could overperform
  15. olafminesaw
    A bit more towards the stalled solution, with Humberto and Imelda's latitude closer together
  16. olafminesaw
    For sure. On the one hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to keep 94L from moving northward enough to be picked up by the ULL, allowing for an escape route. On the other hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to move more Polward (East) away from 94L, having less influence
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    Just over an hour apart
  19. olafminesaw
    All eyes understandably on future Ismerelda, but nice to see a fall chill after. Lows in the mid 40s on the GFS next Friday/Saturday
  20. olafminesaw
    Still more rainfall after this across NC
  21. olafminesaw
    I was looking for an Analog yesterday and couldn't find any TS/hurricane that originated near the Bahamas and took a left hook into the Bahamas. Model consensus vs climo, should be a fun showdown.
  22. olafminesaw
    Yikes. 6-10" for the areas hit hardest by Helene. Fortunately the GEFS is much further east, so an outlier at this point
  23. olafminesaw
    Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls
  24. olafminesaw
    The visualization with the moving dots is fantastic.
  25. olafminesaw
    I'd say this is going to get the potential tropical cyclone designation/forecast cone this evening, but I wouldn't blame the NHC if the held off as long as possible until they can get some better data
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