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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Going back to April has been defined by feast or famine
  2. olafminesaw
    We went from the 3rd wettest May to the 7th driest June to already the 11th wettest July. With today's rain we may climb into the top 5 for July as well. Talk about weather whiplash!
  3. olafminesaw
    Was woken last night by heavy rain. Nearest rain gauge is picked up .74 in 40 minutes. Not a single 90 degree day on the 7 day forecast!
  4. olafminesaw
    I mean TBF, a lot of the county did get the split. But I feel your pain
  5. olafminesaw
    Storms just firing just south of the VA border along the outflow boundary formed by the morning MCS. Will be interesting to watch and see if that boundary continues to develop and move south.
  6. olafminesaw
    This would be what happens
  7. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile GSO has hit 97 already tying yesterday's high which was the hottest day since 2015. We have a legitimate chance of hitting 100 for the first time since 2012 (although more likely temps will stall out at 98/99). With much more reasonable dew points, our heat index is also 97.
  8. olafminesaw
    Seems like dew points have been running a good bit higher than yesterday's forecast, especially from the triangle East. Temps meanwhile are if anything a little ahead of schedule.
  9. olafminesaw
    The precip distribution actually ended up being fairly uniform surprisingly enough, but the precip cutoff was just a bit further East than modeled (we were living on the edge anyhow). Thankfully we got the heavy rain last Sunday that put a dent in the drought
  10. olafminesaw
    Seems to be a big of low level subsidence that is inhibiting the development of heavier precip across the triad. We may end up underperforming unless we can get some better lift.
  11. olafminesaw
    Already the 2nd most tornado warnings in a single day for the state at 22 per IEM. 5/31 1998 was the highest single day record with 41
  12. olafminesaw
    YTD heat index values confirm that this has been an unusually warm start to summer.
  13. olafminesaw
    I would not be surprised to see several hurricanes in the second half of October/November. The highly anomalous SST's should extend the window of opportunity by at least a couple weeks.
  14. olafminesaw
    Geography dictates that almost any system coming into the Gulf is going to have question marks, such as whether a core can rebuild after being shredded by land, limited time over warm water to strengthen before landfall, shear and dry air from troughs coming off the mainland. There's a reason major hurricane landfalls in the Gulf are relatively rare despite the consistently favorable SSTs
  15. olafminesaw
    Big eye. Might take longer to tighten up/ deepen.
  16. olafminesaw
    This happens a lot, where the only way for the core to tighten after becoming disorganized is frictional effect in the few hours before landfall
  17. olafminesaw
    Treasure beach and surrounding areas may get hit the hardest, a big blowup of convection in that area, and some potential to take a step north.
  18. olafminesaw
    Good news for Jamaica on the 8am track, it keeps the center well of shore, would probably only push hurricane force winds to the coast and Kingston may have dodged a bullet from a wind/surge perspective. Still, the island will bear the brunt of the heavy rain
  19. olafminesaw
    Bizarre looking, never seen such a sheared looking hurricane with such a healthy looking core
  20. olafminesaw
    Euro drops up to 10" of rain in a 6 hr period. Considering globals tend to under estimate both localized higher totals as well as terrain enhancement, could definitely be some serious flooding/ mudslides. A big mitigating factor is the very quick forward motion. Most of the rain falls in 6-8 hours.
  21. olafminesaw
    I would think the hurricane would funnel water into the Kingston harbor, but I'm not seeing much historically to support this possibility. Dean took a similar track/ intensity and I'm not seeing any record of significant surge. It may be protected by coral reefs and is sheltered by a barrier island so that may be why. And as you say a storm track parallel to the coast is going to push less water than more of a 90 degree angle (not sure if I have that right, someone more knowledgeable can correct me)
  22. olafminesaw
    I know we normally say an ERC means higher impact, but with increasing shear it could be a saving grace for Jamaica. Sometimes hurricanes can unravel mighty quick if an ERC occurs in a sheared environment
  23. olafminesaw
    Could be a really bad track for pushing surge into Kingston
  24. olafminesaw
    I agree, especially since there doesn't seem to be any reporting stations on the small islands that got hit the hardest. FWIW The latest METAR on windy.com says gusts to 67kts 2 hrs ago and 59kts 1 hr ago. Makes way more sense.
  25. olafminesaw
    I feel pretty certain that is a faulty anemometer. FL winds in that area only would support near hurricane force winds.
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