olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Worst case 90th percentile map from RAH
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This seems plausible with the possibility of that cutoff shifting north or south
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Unfortunately the dry slot may mean freezing drizzle early that would otherwise be sleet. In general global models struggle with QPF distribution,so while I don't think the cutoff of heaviest precip is nailed down, I would tend to disregard the way the globals broad brush uniform heavy precip
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NAM actually has a band of very heavy sleet across the area. I think with the intensity of the WAA and the moisture feed it is likely that the dry slot won't be as significant factor as normally is the case with a miller B.
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REFS Plumes For Greensboro VS Raleigh at hour 60, Raleigh more of a ZR sounding while GSO more of a sleet
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Thanks! Gets confusing to the public when maybe an area under a winter storm warning could get more ice than an ice storm warning, when ice is the more serious impact to prepare for
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How do they decide between winter storm warning and ice storm warning? If ice storm criteria is met it will always be ice storm warning?
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Is it just me or has the HRRR been performing quite poorly lately? I guess it should do well with showing the CAD evolution regardless of exact details
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Yeah pretty much, at the surface anyway. Stronger CAD despite not really jumping south at all
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Sleet bomb is back on the menu boys and girls
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Through 39 hrs, noticeably south with the push of moisture on the GFS
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Seemingly aligning with the rest of guidance WRT the track
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Found these maps that pretty much align with my thinking right now.
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Is it also fair to say it's handling of the CAD also makes it's handling of the surface low track suspect as well?
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It's all about speeding up the onset in order to get snow south of the border. South shifts won't really help if onset is delayed
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Yeah heavy rain would drop off the trees to some degree even if temps are at 25. Bands of heavy rain are much preferred to steady drizzle
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We are getting 2" of precip despite the Appalachian blocking the moisture feed (depicted clearly on models) north GA/AL is getting 3-4"+ of QPF
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The HP was a bit weaker, but the coastal transfer occured further so kind of a wash
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Comes north slightly in the end, but not much different than 6z
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A bit delayed a bit more strung out. No major changes through 54
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