olafminesaw

The clear trends towards a more neutral trough. Probably too late for Raleigh to get into the 1"+ zone, but could be a good storm from Fayetteville to Wilmington

Happy for the Gulf Coast, this will be a once in a generation type storm for many.

Honestly kinda a relief to come to terms with the reality of just flurries to half an inch in these parts. Anything else is gravy! Better than being on the edge right to the end only to be on the outside looking in

I'm not exactly sure, but I think that's the average of the 6z suite

Frankly, hard to ignore at this point

Yeah I do think the many competing pieces of energy adds complexity which tends to favor suppression (think of tropical season when a phase with the trough on models tends not to work out more often than not). At the same time, the expansion of the precip shield due to models failing to account for the mid level warmth sufficiently, pulls the other way allowing many to score even if the more suppressed storm track is what plays out. So the disagreement as to whether the NW trend is legit comes down to this tension between two factors affecting snow totals on a map

I think it's great for long range, not so good for short and medium range.

I think part of what we're seeing is both have a similar track/evolution, but the Euro is picking up on a more expansive precip field. I think it's probably more realistic in that regard, although it clearly is indicating dry air will eat into the moisture and limit QPF. As Eric Webb has indicated, the WAA should beat out dry air relative to what the models are showing. More and more January 2014 seems to be a really solid analog

Womp womp... I think the triangle is going to end up right on the line, but the triad may be out of the significant snow potential

Seems reasonable

My gut is the GFS is going to come in a bit more south. Proves me wrong GFS!

I mean, these are pretty massive differences for 3.5 days out

Meanwhile the RGEM looks juiced at 84 hours

I count 3 (6%) that have moderate to heavy snow for the I85 crowd. So while trends are good, if the pendulum stops at 12z, this may well remain an I95 special

Vs 6z. Differences mostly noise I think

My understanding is ratios over about 15:1 are pretty hard to achieve. Also, have to consider compaction being more of a factor when it comes to storm total snow depth

Overall a step back towards consensus on the Canadian. More positive tilt to the trough

Slightly more suppressed than last run but minor changes

Does the RGEM generally follow in close step with the CMC? Or more like how the GFS and NAM aren't really closely related?

I believe the ICON verification scores are below most every other major global model TBF

H5 looks like a step in the right direction but surface is extremely suppressed