olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The glacier will hang around until Easter
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Just textbook
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All but a sliver of VA in double digits is wild. The footprint of this thing is nuts. Very 2010
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Let the south bleed begin only to swing back north and crush us all in the last 48 hours
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Seems like half the social media weather community is people from the Northeast who will defend any model that shows what they want to see
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Seems to be running now
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WPC likes the southerly track
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You're in a great spot for this one!
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That run very reminiscent of the January 2022 storm in terms of the wedge
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GFS
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Euro trends WRT the ridge
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OP GFS pushing the HP further south this run. Not going to be an amped solution for sure
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Huge jump south of 6z
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Icon jumped north, more Euro-like. I tend to think of the AI models as predictive of a way to show the most likely direction the OP models will trend. I would tend to think significant snowfall is much more likely North of Charlotte
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If everyone (a reminder to myself as well) could try and put your posts in the context of a location that will help make the discussion clearer. What is good for southern VA is not necessarily good for northern GA
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Exactly. Extreme ZR totals is all about duration. Heavy precip with that kind of wedge tends to flip to sleet except in a narrow band with surface temps in the mid/upper 20s. That narrow band could set up anywhere and will indeed be a serious issue in all likelihood, but no need to worry too much until we iron out more details
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RAH is quite bullish
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One positive about this storm is the cold air continues to press south as the precip moves west to East across our area. That's why I think NC should stay mostly sleet/snow and the ice threat will be more in SC/GA. That is unless the whole boundary ends up shifting way North, but usually blocking HPs are pretty well modeled in advance. January 2022 was an example of what an amped up solution would look like: snow changing over to a raging sleet storm followed by a small amount of ZR
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Marginally colder too
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The Euro precip type map on pivotal is calling this ZR, so just be aware that those freezing rain maps are pretty much completely useless
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EPS came slightly south. In a good spot overall, with ice being the primary limiting factor for a higher end event for now.
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Raging ice storm 18z Euro
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Doesn't get much better than that
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