olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Found these maps that pretty much align with my thinking right now.
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Is it also fair to say it's handling of the CAD also makes it's handling of the surface low track suspect as well?
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It's all about speeding up the onset in order to get snow south of the border. South shifts won't really help if onset is delayed
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Yeah heavy rain would drop off the trees to some degree even if temps are at 25. Bands of heavy rain are much preferred to steady drizzle
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We are getting 2" of precip despite the Appalachian blocking the moisture feed (depicted clearly on models) north GA/AL is getting 3-4"+ of QPF
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The HP was a bit weaker, but the coastal transfer occured further so kind of a wash
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Comes north slightly in the end, but not much different than 6z
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A bit delayed a bit more strung out. No major changes through 54
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Slightly south with a stronger HP
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Same for the RGEM. It does have a good period of sleet but heavy ZR with temps in the low to mid 20s
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That warm nose is incredible given the precip hasn't even arrived yet
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Not much difference overall I guess but if we wanted to trend towards a stronger wedge it moved in the right direction
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Diabolical sounding for Raleigh
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Chance of major ice impacts
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Seems reasonable for now. I still think we get mostly sleet in the triad, but better to prepare for ice if it's a coinflip
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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/prob_wssi.php
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This is a communications nightmare for news outlets. Could be 5" of sleet and minimal icing or half an inch of ice. The 5" of sleet is more likely, but when some models are spitting out significant icing it's hard to ignore knowing that it's better to be prepared for the worst
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I don't really think the NAM is better in that regard. A dry slot would mean hours of freezing drizzle during the first half of the storm that would otherwise be sleet with heavier rates/a more southerly track. In fact, I am convinced that is the only way a crippling ice storm will play out East of the Apps
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The 6z Euro coming in a bit South, no major changes
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Yeah that does look like a meaningful improvement
