olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Is it just me or has the HRRR been performing quite poorly lately? I guess it should do well with showing the CAD evolution regardless of exact details
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Yeah pretty much, at the surface anyway. Stronger CAD despite not really jumping south at all
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Sleet bomb is back on the menu boys and girls
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Through 39 hrs, noticeably south with the push of moisture on the GFS
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Seemingly aligning with the rest of guidance WRT the track
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Found these maps that pretty much align with my thinking right now.
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Is it also fair to say it's handling of the CAD also makes it's handling of the surface low track suspect as well?
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It's all about speeding up the onset in order to get snow south of the border. South shifts won't really help if onset is delayed
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Yeah heavy rain would drop off the trees to some degree even if temps are at 25. Bands of heavy rain are much preferred to steady drizzle
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We are getting 2" of precip despite the Appalachian blocking the moisture feed (depicted clearly on models) north GA/AL is getting 3-4"+ of QPF
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The HP was a bit weaker, but the coastal transfer occured further so kind of a wash
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Comes north slightly in the end, but not much different than 6z
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A bit delayed a bit more strung out. No major changes through 54
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Slightly south with a stronger HP
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Same for the RGEM. It does have a good period of sleet but heavy ZR with temps in the low to mid 20s
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That warm nose is incredible given the precip hasn't even arrived yet
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Not much difference overall I guess but if we wanted to trend towards a stronger wedge it moved in the right direction
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Diabolical sounding for Raleigh
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Chance of major ice impacts
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Seems reasonable for now. I still think we get mostly sleet in the triad, but better to prepare for ice if it's a coinflip
