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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. Just curious, does anyone know what city is pictured in the NWS haze icon?
  2. While the GFS is unrealistic in terms of intensity, I'd be a little concerned about a weak tropical system meandering inland and causing flooding. The 12z & 6Z GFS both support this idea, although I kinda expect the GFS to drop the system altogether at some point.
  3. Neat to see the trough highlighted by the smoke on visible
  4. Wow! Frisco pier water temp is currently 69 degrees. Average is 76 and lowest in the POR of 1981-2005 is 73 (per surf-fotecast.com)
  5. Just a little 26 degree difference between models 3 days out
  6. Seems a little suspect, could get almost chilly this Thursday
  7. If you guessed the following, your entry has a duplicate value with another entry(at least as far as I managed to not fat finger in excel): 11/5/2 (3x), 12/5/2, 13/5/1, 13/5/2, 15/7/3, 16/5/2, 16/7/4
  8. With pressure outside the circulation being unusually low, around 1008mb, there's not much of a gradient.
  9. Looks like the warmest it's going to get in Greensboro, in the month of May is 84 degrees (happened to also be 84 in April/March as well weirdly enough.) This is the coolest May by this metric since 1983. Less remarkable in terms of average temp, only a couple degrees below average
  10. I just want one official forecast discussion to refer to weather conditions as "a vibe", lol
  11. Looks like it's trying to complete the most seamless erc in the history of mab
  12. Plenty of banding per microwave. I was thinking that annular cyclones have a somewhat lower intensity ceiling?
  13. https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=WP02
  14. I think it completed a few hours ago, but it ingested a ton of dry air in the process. This has caused a lopsided eye and a weakness on the north side of the storm. It seem to be starting to mix out the dry air and wrap convection around the eye, as the structure stabilizes. Weakening should at least stop before reaching Guam, and has a chance at re-intensification before landfall.
  15. Really starting to look like an EWRC may save Guam from a cat 5 impact. Barring a meld or quick completion, neither of which are especially likely
  16. For being such a tiny target, Guam is one of the most high end hurricane prone population centers in the world. They get a direct major hurricane strike about every 20 years or so. They'll be fine structurally, it's more a concern of life after the storm being difficult for weeks if not months after.
  17. Looking increasingly likely that this system will bring soaking rain to the Carolinas. I for one welcome the moisture. May see some isolated flooding, especially in the Eastern mountains/escarpment
  18. Looks like it will be rolling through pretty late anyway and looks like the type to weaken past the mountains, especially with limited destabilization during the day.
  19. Maybe some slightly spicy weather tomorrow. Anything to break the monotony (although I confess, it has been rather nice)
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