olafminesaw

Earlier phasing and East. Should be a big run with a stout HP well placed

Yep, no big changes so far, just a tick north

I think the GFS is going to come out a bit more amped. HP isn't pushing as far south through 60 hrs

This was the surface depiction for the January 2022 sleet bomb. This stayed all sleet and snow in the triad (I think a little light ZR to end, but nothing significant). Just goes to show what a strong surface high will do for you. It seems very unlikely that Raleigh and points N & W will have a changeover to ZR for any significant amount of time. The question is will it be a 4-6" sleet bomb or a historic snowstorm

I know everyone was nervous about that Euro run, but if it played out as depicted that front end thump of snow would be epic. Over 1" per hour rates possible

Absolutely, although only the hires version which goes out to 60 hours, so really until Friday-ish to get into it's range for Sunday morning (when mixing is really an issue)

Yeah, a near lock for 1.5-2.5" QPF all frozen doesn't come around too often and that bears out in the upper levels

Gotcha that makes sense, that's why the thermals were so much worse with the intial WAA precip, because of the retreating high

Copy paste 9 (just extend to the East)

Am I looking at this right that the northern energy and baja energy are moving closer together and therefore phasing sooner leading to a more amplified solution? What makes the GFS different in this regard?

Fortunately the target is quite wide with this one compared to normal. We have some wiggle room one way or the other (as long as you have reasonable expectations). That being said, we are still more than 4 days out from the main event, which is about when we often see a big adjustment of some kind.

It even gets some snow down to @GaWx Monday night

Yeah QPF is less but that's the trade-off. It's good when our worries about too suppressed and to amplified are both equally in play. As you allude to, I do think suppression is the bigger concern at this point of the two

You could not draw up a better run at 12z than the GFS for Central NC. You don't even see runs like that in fantasy range

It's always fun because it starts off the 12z suite in the mid range and is very often the exact opposite of how the rest of the suite trends

The high pressure is pressing in more through 90 on the GFS. Should be a good run

A few thoughts while we wait for 12z models: 1) be wary of Kuchera maps, as they may over estimate ratios with the warm nose causing the snow to be wetter 2) the front end thump of WAA snow often over performs in terms of snowfall rates, but the sleet line moves north faster than modeled. Areas that are expecting mostly sleet may get 1-3" of snow to start. We will need to wait until the hires NAM is in range late Thursday to start to get a feel for this progression 3)a changeover is inevitable for all but perhaps our most northerly posters, but watch the backside for a changeover back to high ratio snow, particularly if the LP is able to track more to the South 4) watch trends in the track of the low pressure and transfer to the coast today and tomorrow, don't get to sucked into details/totals as we still have 4 days + to go

For sure. My gut is 8-12" in the triad, but higher impact with 1-2" of that being sleet.

The escarpment along the NC/VA border is going to get blasted by the WAA. Wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in that area got 2-3'

Like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze down one end with the high pressure (over the southern plains) and it pops out on the other side (amplified coastal low).

It certainly is concerning, especially for anyone who gets ZR, with near record cold behind it. Thankfully snow shouldn't be wet and sleet is not really a concern from a power outage standpoint. I do anticipate a good deal of confusion from the general public on this point because the thinking goes: sleet is ice an ice causes power outages?

I used to work for a company that does snow removal and they said the 4" of compacted snow+sleet in 2022 was harder to deal with than the foot of snow we got in 2018. Schools will be closed for a solid week in many places