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olafminesaw

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  1. olafminesaw
    If everyone (a reminder to myself as well) could try and put your posts in the context of a location that will help make the discussion clearer. What is good for southern VA is not necessarily good for northern GA
  2. olafminesaw
    Exactly. Extreme ZR totals is all about duration. Heavy precip with that kind of wedge tends to flip to sleet except in a narrow band with surface temps in the mid/upper 20s. That narrow band could set up anywhere and will indeed be a serious issue in all likelihood, but no need to worry too much until we iron out more details
  3. olafminesaw
    RAH is quite bullish
  4. olafminesaw
    One positive about this storm is the cold air continues to press south as the precip moves west to East across our area. That's why I think NC should stay mostly sleet/snow and the ice threat will be more in SC/GA. That is unless the whole boundary ends up shifting way North, but usually blocking HPs are pretty well modeled in advance. January 2022 was an example of what an amped up solution would look like: snow changing over to a raging sleet storm followed by a small amount of ZR
  5. olafminesaw
    Marginally colder too
  6. olafminesaw
    The Euro precip type map on pivotal is calling this ZR, so just be aware that those freezing rain maps are pretty much completely useless
  7. olafminesaw
    EPS came slightly south. In a good spot overall, with ice being the primary limiting factor for a higher end event for now.
  8. olafminesaw
    Raging ice storm 18z Euro
  9. olafminesaw
    Doesn't get much better than that
  10. olafminesaw
  11. olafminesaw
    Coming down steady in S Greensboro but no stickage yet. Thermometer says 36, but usually runs a degree or two warm
  12. olafminesaw
    Something to keep in mind Tommorow, there will likely be two pushes of moisture, one in the early morning and one early after noon with a dry slot in between. The early afternoon is the more likely period to see snowfall/accumulation so patience will be key.
  13. olafminesaw
    GFS at 18z (6z run) vs actual. Handling temps well so far, just a little too aggressive with the cold front
  14. olafminesaw
    Temps running about 3 degrees below forecast so far today. May help Tommorow if that trend can hold
  15. olafminesaw
    You can see how dynamic lift cools the column on the GFS. A little suspect TBH, but not out of the question
  16. olafminesaw
    Also colder (then 6z anyway) a bit of a double edged sword, which is why there isn't much upside with this one
  17. olafminesaw
    Approximate cutoff between what will largely fall as rain vs mostly snow (assuming the NAM's temp profiles are correct) Within the snow zone, a coating to half an inch is possible with a small chance of more if banding develops.
  18. olafminesaw
    850 temps at onset favor snow West of 85 and rain East. Doesn't push the cold air East until after most of the moisture has exited. Just something to watch Tommorow morning
  19. olafminesaw
    This has a the makings of a big surprise for Tidewater VA
  20. olafminesaw
    Approaching landfall as a Cat 5 Flizzard
  21. olafminesaw
    The funny part is a band of rain is supposed to roll through here tomorrow
  22. olafminesaw
    I think he could very well be right, if as usual cold air takes longer than expected to bleed over the mountains. However,I do feel we could overcome with decent rates and get a coating or so as far SE as RAH
  23. olafminesaw
    I am an optimist at heart but I will believe above normal precip when I see it
  24. olafminesaw
    Another tick north on the Euro
  25. olafminesaw
    It helps that sun angle is still relatively low and ground temps should be fairly cold with how cold it's been.
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