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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Diabolical sounding for Raleigh
  2. olafminesaw
    Chance of major ice impacts
  3. olafminesaw
    Seems reasonable for now. I still think we get mostly sleet in the triad, but better to prepare for ice if it's a coinflip
  4. olafminesaw
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/prob_wssi.php
  5. olafminesaw
  6. olafminesaw
    This is a communications nightmare for news outlets. Could be 5" of sleet and minimal icing or half an inch of ice. The 5" of sleet is more likely, but when some models are spitting out significant icing it's hard to ignore knowing that it's better to be prepared for the worst
  7. olafminesaw
    I don't really think the NAM is better in that regard. A dry slot would mean hours of freezing drizzle during the first half of the storm that would otherwise be sleet with heavier rates/a more southerly track. In fact, I am convinced that is the only way a crippling ice storm will play out East of the Apps
  8. olafminesaw
    The 6z Euro coming in a bit South, no major changes
  9. olafminesaw
    Yeah that does look like a meaningful improvement
  10. olafminesaw
    Eh. I wouldn't give the GFS too much credit given how much it folded to the Euro (gradually), while the Euro hasn't taken any meaningful steps back to the South (yet)
  11. olafminesaw
    the Euro has little to no snowfall with a sounding like this leading up to the storm and blocking
  12. olafminesaw
    February 94 as well.
  13. olafminesaw
    What in the heck is that mess? I think the red and orange should be flipped?
  14. olafminesaw
    Euro vs GFS, big differences still
  15. olafminesaw
    Come on Euro. Make happy hour great again
  16. olafminesaw
    We kinda already have a bit I think in general. Really need the Euro to move in that direction, it has been stubborn
  17. olafminesaw
    Seems a bit north so far but the ridge is stronger to the East so that may help suppress as the system moves East
  18. olafminesaw
    I agree, although I could definitely see a massive dry slot cutting into QPF way more than models are showing. At this point 4-6" of sleet or bust in my mind.
  19. olafminesaw
    This sounding is bonkers, 11 degrees at the surface and 40 degrees 5000 ft up
  20. olafminesaw
    The ICON looks like a step in the right direction through 72, with more spacing
  21. olafminesaw
    RGEM is showing a wide stripe of sleet with a more narrow zone of ZR in the deep south. Once it is in range, it will be a key model to watch
  22. olafminesaw
    Yeah I think it's just frustration at losing the once in a generation snowstorm potential. I find myself chasing the high of the "big one", that I experienced when I was a kid. But I know at the end of the day it will come ago and melt away and my life overall won't be better or worse as a result of what happens. Snow is a gift at the end of the day
  23. olafminesaw
    Yep, reposting what I shared yesterday. This low track was 2" snow, 2" sleet and minimal ZR in the triad
  24. olafminesaw
    6z Euro is largely the same, maybe a touch south overall. The bleeding stops now, we can only hope
  25. olafminesaw
    Totally agree. I do think there is an upside with more moisture early on Saturday from overrunning where the triangle/triad could over perform.
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