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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Thought y'all might get a kick out of this
  2. olafminesaw
    Ensembles people. Also the rainfall potential this weekend was always paltry (few models more than .25), the wetter period starts later next week and has mostly held the course
  3. olafminesaw
    I agree to a point, but it seems likely we will get multiple opportunities over the next two weeks. Sometimes a few .5" rainfalls is better than one big 2" rainfall for busting drought. Hopefully we can stop the bleeding anyway
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    Not way out in fantasy range anymore
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    Last few runs of the Euro AI have just been comical
  8. olafminesaw
    Euro vs EL nino climo. I think slightly below normal starting in May is a good bet. Which honestly isn't the worst outcome to keep the drought from accelerating.
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
    More like :
  11. olafminesaw
    King Euro AI would have to agree
  12. olafminesaw
    Ties the all time DSCI record for the SE region previously set 12-18-2007
  13. olafminesaw
    How many inches in my back yard?
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    Somewhat lower odds of a washout in the 10-14 day timeframe we are watching, but odds continue to increase for at least some rainfall
  17. olafminesaw
    Glued to every model cycle from here on out, we can reel this fantasy range rainstorm in
  18. olafminesaw
    The Mariana islands gets just about as many high end typhoons as anywhere else I nthe world. Saipan took a direct hit from a cat 5 back in 2018. I am guessing that Saipan didn't get much above cat 2 winds from this, with maybe some higher gusts. Good timing with the ERC.
  19. olafminesaw
    Some signs of a pattern change, but I fear this will just keep getting kicked back
  20. olafminesaw
    My forecast for Saturday is 94 with a dewpoint in the low 50s, flash drought conditions under any circumstances
  21. olafminesaw
    I usually check the GFS full run every morning and don't think I've ever seen a completely dry run. Insane. Euro is nearly completely dry too I have to believe by May we will be starting to see a pattern change
  22. olafminesaw
    Drought to worsen and fire conditions ramp up this weekend with warm temps, dewpoints in the low 50s and breezy conditions. Some signs of a more seasonally average shower/storm chances returning late next week. Hopefully the quick ramp up towards EL nino over the next few weeks will help to shake up the pattern and break down the ridge
  23. olafminesaw
    It also is peaking earlier than normal, so may be coming down towards moderate by Winter. Hard to say
  24. olafminesaw
    Probably somewhere in-between, although there's not a lot of analogs for a strong summer El Nino
  25. olafminesaw
    Yeah not looking good. Ensembles not much better
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