olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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We kinda already have a bit I think in general. Really need the Euro to move in that direction, it has been stubborn
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Seems a bit north so far but the ridge is stronger to the East so that may help suppress as the system moves East
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I agree, although I could definitely see a massive dry slot cutting into QPF way more than models are showing. At this point 4-6" of sleet or bust in my mind.
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This sounding is bonkers, 11 degrees at the surface and 40 degrees 5000 ft up
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The ICON looks like a step in the right direction through 72, with more spacing
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RGEM is showing a wide stripe of sleet with a more narrow zone of ZR in the deep south. Once it is in range, it will be a key model to watch
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Yeah I think it's just frustration at losing the once in a generation snowstorm potential. I find myself chasing the high of the "big one", that I experienced when I was a kid. But I know at the end of the day it will come ago and melt away and my life overall won't be better or worse as a result of what happens. Snow is a gift at the end of the day
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Yep, reposting what I shared yesterday. This low track was 2" snow, 2" sleet and minimal ZR in the triad
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6z Euro is largely the same, maybe a touch south overall. The bleeding stops now, we can only hope
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Totally agree. I do think there is an upside with more moisture early on Saturday from overrunning where the triangle/triad could over perform.
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And the full run
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GEFS still not buying the Euro, ticked south at 6z
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Praying for a sleet bomb and not the ZR Nightmare the Euro depicts at this point. The 6z GFS at least didn't make any big jumps north so maybe the 6z suite can stop the bleeding (although I know many believe the corpse to be already dead)
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Sometimes model tracking feels kinda like this, you get the weight on there just right, hold your breath and...
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There's just so many moving pieces. Will see a bunch more solutions before it's all said and done. Maybe that means freezing rain to the NC border. But also it wouldn't be a huge shock to see things swing back the other way
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FYI that is taking sleet and considering it snow
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Earlier phasing and East. Should be a big run with a stout HP well placed
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Yep, no big changes so far, just a tick north
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I think the GFS is going to come out a bit more amped. HP isn't pushing as far south through 60 hrs
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This was the surface depiction for the January 2022 sleet bomb. This stayed all sleet and snow in the triad (I think a little light ZR to end, but nothing significant). Just goes to show what a strong surface high will do for you. It seems very unlikely that Raleigh and points N & W will have a changeover to ZR for any significant amount of time. The question is will it be a 4-6" sleet bomb or a historic snowstorm
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I know everyone was nervous about that Euro run, but if it played out as depicted that front end thump of snow would be epic. Over 1" per hour rates possible
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Absolutely, although only the hires version which goes out to 60 hours, so really until Friday-ish to get into it's range for Sunday morning (when mixing is really an issue)
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Yeah, a near lock for 1.5-2.5" QPF all frozen doesn't come around too often and that bears out in the upper levels
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Gotcha that makes sense, that's why the thermals were so much worse with the intial WAA precip, because of the retreating high
