olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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I feel like ceiling on this event was always high, but in recent years the SPC has moved away from their old approach of staying conservative and ramping up the categories until day of. Now they try and predict what the day 1 probabilities should be two to three days out. The old method they would have gone with an enhanced yesterday and then held off on a moderate this morning knowing the CAMs were showing the threat diminished.
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Florida may be America's armpit, but phoenix is America's air fryer.
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Seems like maybe the RDU hot spot got corrected?
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If nothing else I'm looking forward to waking up with temps in the mid 60s and dropping into the 40s by mid day. Don't get that very often. Also the fact we are even talking about the possibility of flakes on the backside of a front with a low end severe threat is pretty crazy.
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Hmm...
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Obviously I'd bet against snow, but the upcoming cold shot looks legit on most models
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Gotta lure out the bugs and then freeze them solid
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Snowfall totals now that snow chances have dropped to near zero until next winter
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Also have to differentiate between short term and long term drought. Long term drought isn't a huge deal around here because we don't have the issues with limited supply the West has. It seems our short term drought is mostly gone after today in NC.
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Nasty ice if anything. Bleh
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Check out the consistency from the Euro AI
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The Euro AI has been insistent over the past couple days on snow next week for southern VA to the NC border. Seems unlikely with few other models on board but the UKMET joined the party and has snow for north/central NC
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Next bit of interesting weather is some training of heavy rain cells Thurs/Friday that could lead to flash flooding concerns over a narrow stripe
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Some signs of life in the long range. Maybe some kind of frozen slop about a week from now. Not entirely sure if I want that to happen.
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Looks like a wallops island launch viewing map
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Here's the comparison, lol
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Crazy model runs for the mid-atlantic. GFS has 30" for DC and the Euro 2". 3-4 days out now.
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Yeah, this doesn't look like our storm because of the little bit of SE ridge, but this does have the classic look of a big storm from DC to NYC. Haven't had one of those in a while (from a coastal anyway)
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It's been creeping up over the last few weeks, but not enough to reach close to Nino before late spring at the earliest. Of course we could still have a nino like pattern in a neutral Enso state as we saw a few weeks ago
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For kicks and giggles
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My definition is any of the following criteria being met. Of course no winter meets these criteria consecutively, but the end of winter in my book is whenever the last date of one of these criteria is met 1) snow/sleet accumulation 1"+ 2) ice accumulation more than a light glaze 3) high temps in the 30s for 3+ days in a 5 day stretch
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Sad situation, a direct impact on a metro area of 500k+
