olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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A truly fascinating article on the development of a new AI model using data assimilation from this startups own balloon data network. https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/01/this-ai-weather-startup-is-out-forecasting-government-agencies/
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I had raindrops on my windshield this morning. This guy is full of it.
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Models have had to correct way south on every system the past few months
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At least they should have dropped the short term drought designation in those areas. I understand that lakes and resovouirs may not have recovered, but soil moisture is likely pretty much back to normal
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They tend to be note overly reactionary. Updated outlook:
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GSO picked up 1.45" in 25 minutes in that last cell, more than we picked up in the 5 day stretch when we were supposed to get 2-4"
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5 day totals GSO .96" RAH 1.00" Charlotte 2.53 Greenville SC 2.21" Columbia SC 2.1" Atlanta 2.39"
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If the HRRR is to be believed the Triad is going to be the big loser today after rain slid to our SE earlier. We did get enough to get the ground wet anyway, but clearing up again for now
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I think more meaningful rainfall will have to wait until the wedge breaks down Tommorow morning. At least that's what the short range models are showing and I think the wedge is what killed the rain around here
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I gotta say, despite the totals being underwhelming so far, this is the kind of rain you want to bust a drought. Spread over multiple days, coming in batches to soak in effectively, drizzle in between the more moderate rain and little sun/cool temperatures to keep any rainfall from evaporating quicky
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This evening through the middle of next week is when the main slug of moisture should come through for you. This is a marathon not a sprint
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Pop up storms starting to fire up in the western Piedmont and cumulus clouds building. Cap seems to be breaking down a little ahead of schedule
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Not sure, but I wouldn't bank on much more than 1:1 ratios
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Agreed. The nature of pulse thunderstorms is there will be winners and losers so some of us may need to wait until the weekend/next week to get significant rainfall
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What a drop in about 6 hours
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Eps
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I also saw a tweet that mid/long range forecast accuracy has increased dramatically over the last couple weeks as expected as we begin to move out of meteorological spring.
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