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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Yep, those two max zones have been showing up on a lot of guidance. Feels familiar (although this time the boom zones will be around an inch)
  2. olafminesaw
    Big wedge, sleet to ice to rain potential on this one I fear
  3. olafminesaw
    Hires models conceding to King Hires-RGEM and showing very little moisture East of 77
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    We should have known. It can only snow on the weekend
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    Wet bulb temp running 4 degrees below forecast at GSO
  8. olafminesaw
    We are relying on lift from the WAA to wring moisture out after the frontal passage. Since our system remains weak, it only will produce light precip
  9. olafminesaw
    N and West of 85 looking pretty dry. My gut is somewhere between Raleigh/Rocky Mount/Greenville will do well as well as the northern foothills. Hires models this morning have trended in that direction as well
  10. olafminesaw
    Can you spot the dry slot?
  11. olafminesaw
    Around Valentine's Day features a cutter on all models. Seems like some potential for CAD/messy ice situation depending on track/ridge placement. Also could feature borderline severe if the low tracks across New England instead of PA
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
    The latest GRAF is also super light with precip. I don't think that the triad is going to get more than a dusting, based on the trend on the short range models
  14. olafminesaw
    Sad trombone noises
  15. olafminesaw
    Speaking of which, the HRRR joins many other models in painting the southern band directly over Guilford county. Schrödinger's snow band if you will.
  16. olafminesaw
    Putting all my money on wherever the HRRR doesn't have the band
  17. olafminesaw
    The hires RGEM killed it on the last two storms. Especially the one two weekends ago, but here's a run from Friday that did fairly well as well
  18. olafminesaw
    RAP illustrates my thoughts. Need to be able to get moisture and the cold to push far enough south, before cold/dry air shuts off the moisture. Moisture North of the warm front may be somewhat limited but concentrated in a band or two that may over perform. The RAP is a bit further north than the rest of guidance, so I would expect the green zone to set up right along I85
  19. olafminesaw
    Some pretty insane banding showing up on the hires RGEM
  20. olafminesaw
    Actually I would say Eastern Tennessee is the King of the warm nose and North Carolina is the court Jester
  21. olafminesaw
    One reason we are seeing less potential in NC is a small warm nose showing up on short range models. It was looking like a changeover to snow at around 35 yesterday but now right around freezing for the changeover with some ZR mixed in
  22. olafminesaw
    Some models showing a little light ZR as well. The pavement will still be holding some of the cold we've had especially in the shade so roads could certainly be slick
  23. olafminesaw
    Definitely seeing most models back off a bit this morning. Still a decent threat north of the VA border. A dusting to half an inch possible North of 85 and may include the Triangle if everything goes right
  24. olafminesaw
    The Euro AI has been very consistent in showing a maximum along the VA border
  25. olafminesaw
    The AI GFS looks nice too
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