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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    Yeah there's a ton of clusters of houses along the back roads through the hills that don't look like much on the map but account for thousands of residents. Similar to the Appalachians in that way. Hill tops along the path of the eye could have easily had gusts over 180 mph. These people could be cut off for weeks without shelter, water etc.
  3. olafminesaw
    Goodness looks like a tornado came through
  4. olafminesaw
    Yikes. This solid brick church was completely destroyed in Black River, like a bomb went off. The kind of damage only storm surge can do https://x.com/nwadeema/status/1983342714986082750/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1983342714986082750&currentTweetUser=nwadeema
  5. olafminesaw
    Footage from black River. Looks like roofs ripped off and surge https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/1983435662100705503
  6. olafminesaw
    Probably only borderline a major hurricane at this point, but a much wider area of hurricane force winds
  7. olafminesaw
    https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983245789158642173
  8. olafminesaw
    Even with the eye collapsing the symmetry it had maintained is incredible. It may not have suffered much structurally, although I wouldn't expect any restrengthening once it gets back over water (probably at cat 3 strength)
  9. olafminesaw
    Like an angry hornet and Jamaica just stepped on it's nest
  10. olafminesaw
    If we go off the assumption that the 11 am center fix from NHC is correct, it tracked a hair East of what satellite is showing. Also a close up of where the line is
  11. olafminesaw
    Sooo close. He experienced the max winds that's for sure. Start to be concerned about surge in his location. The caveat is that satellite is a little off from reality based on the curvature of the earth I believe
  12. olafminesaw
    The center of the eye is likely to pass very close to White house (maybe just East)
  13. olafminesaw
    Without a nearby radar it's hard to say for sure, but his location is just West of the 11 am fix, so I think it's likely he got into the eye
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
    Black River looks to bear the brunt of the right eyewall. Population 4,261. Looks to me like more of a local residential area with not as many resorts
  16. olafminesaw
    That's my concern. There are tons of homes scattered among the hills if you look on satellite, that aren't marked as towns on the map
  17. olafminesaw
    Dorian gives some hope, because a lot of the structures are similar: solid cinder block construction. The concern is the roofs blowing off.
  18. olafminesaw
    Treasure Beach may take the brunt of the surge
  19. olafminesaw
    Jaw on floor
  20. olafminesaw
    The next recon should make another pass in an hour or so
  21. olafminesaw
    Thank you! Glad Kevin was able to grab an image. Yeah, Melissa's core has been one of the most resilient I can remember since perhaps Dorian and Irma at such a high intensity. It's one of the biggest gaps in weather forecasting, we don't really have any good metrics for predicting ERCs. The hurricane models actually usually do a pretty good job and were spot on in predicting a stable eye through landfall once it reached cat 4 strength
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    That pressure gradient is insane. Reading 992 MB at this point
  24. olafminesaw
    I mean per the 5 pm track, it could track within (to the West side) the cone and the center could still miss landfall West of the island, so per the NHC it is well within the realm of possibility
  25. olafminesaw
    Recon has taken off, should get some more data in a couple hours
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