olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. I'm usually fully convinced this will be the time I won't get sucked in, but... approximately one model cycle later I'm fully emotionally invested. Might as well go full weenie now and get it out of the way
  2. Run from it..dread it... Destiny arrives just the same
  3. Setting aside the noise in the models, 35/22 i(at the airport) s a pretty good place to be (several degrees cooler than the HRRR). My only thought is if precip holds back, dewpoints may have a chance to creep up without a corresponding drop in temperature.
  4. Looks like clouds may hold off until well after sunset north of I40.
  5. I think where we do see this sometimes is the persistence of the wedge despite strong WAA aloft. The models erode the cold too quickly, even in the short range. I think a couple general rules of thumb are that during these kinds of events, where the temp ends up after the column is fully saturated is where it tends to stay. I could see places in the triad staying in the 30-31 range all day long, but never really dropping below 30. Also, it seems plausible that we would see some sleet, which the HRRR is picking up on. THe opposite happens a lot where a sneaky warm layer leads to sleet, but we may have a sneaky cold layer that makes for sleet instead of ZR (see sounding below). Finally the drying trend has been real. This is the main culprit for why the raw zr outputs have decrease for many. I suspect, in the end this will lead to a more impactful event , with more time for accreation, except for those in the zone between Wilkesboro and Winston, where it may stay relatively dry.
  6. Wedge really building in at the end of the run
  7. The thing is, storm track doesn't make much of a difference, with the high locked in place. Of course, it's quite possible the models are overdoing the strength of the wedge, but I wouldn't count on it.
  8. At this point, it's equally important to track dewpoints and cloud cover throughout the day as it is to look at the models. Right now dewpoints are running a degree or two higher than the NWS forecast and some high clouds are moving towards the piedmont.
  9. The trend is in part due to the shift of the heaviest axis of precip eastward. The model has stayed rock solid with temps, aside from adjustments to the periphery and this run did push the freezing line further south, with all of wake county getting in on the action
  10. Here's a trend loop for a blend of models over the past couple days of model cycles near peak storm
  11. I like how their scale includes up to 10"+. It's like they're allowing for the possibility of a day after tomorrow thing
  12. If you don't have generator, I would recommend going out and buying a camping stove. I think the ones that run on gasses other than propane can be used indoors if in a well ventilated area, but don't quote me on that.
  13. FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff.
  14. Drops .5" of precip in three hours with temps at 27 in grrensboro
  15. I dunno why. But wowzers. Those are some dynamics
  16. I'm on mobile, but the RGEM is as classic an ice storm signal as it gets. Temps don't rise about 30 in the triad for almost the entire event and over 1.5" of precip. The few factors working against significant icing: Rates are a bit heavier this go around and it will be fairly warm and sunny the day before. Also more of the precip will be during the day.
  17. FWIW the RGEM absolutely nailed the temps for the prior event at similar lead time: Here is what it is currently showing for the Thursday system:
  18. Also of note, the timing of the heaviest icing seems to be in the early morning hours
  19. Yeah, this is definitely a sleet sounding